RBS

Don't Expect Much From Yellen's Speech Today

Anyone hoping for some clarity on the Fed's next steps from Yellen's speech later today, don't hold your breath. If anything, Yellen will do more of the same, which as BofA summarizes, is the following: "It is fair to say that many clients are a bit confused and frustrated with Fed communication. The Fed seems to be constantly changing its focus from one meeting to the next. They seem to regularly promise hikes, only to back off at the last second."

Frontrunning: May 13

  • Nerves dominate before U.S. retail numbers (Reuters)
  • Stocks Give Up Week’s Gains as Commodities Fall; Yen, Bonds Rise (BBG)
  • Apple Invests $1 Billion in Didi, Uber’s Rival in China (WSJ)
  • Dollar hits two-week high, posts best fortnight since February (Reuters)
  • OPEC Sees Rival Oil Production Declining as Markets Rebalance (WSJ)
  • Trump on best behavior as he woos Republicans but differences remain (Reuters)

A Terrible Start To 2016 Turns Absolutely Brutal For Odey Who Refuses To Stop "Fighting The Fed"

what until now was merely a terrible start to the year has turned absolutely brutal for Odey's European fund, which is now down nearly a third, or 31%, in the first four months of the year, wiping out almost half a decade of trading profits in his flagship hedge fund in less than four months. Is he ready to throw in the towel? Not even close: the billionaire who delights in fighting the Fed, is convinced he will have the last laugh: "The disconnect between travelling and arriving may be coming home to roost. It will make the retreat from Moscow appear painless."

U.S. Futures Jump In Tandem With Soaring Italian Banks On Hopes Of Government Bailout

it has been a rather quiet session, which saw Japan modestly lower dragged again by a lower USDJPY which hit fresh 17 month lows around 170.6 before staging another modest rebound and halting a six-day run of gains; China bounced after a slightly disappointing CPI print gave hope there is more space for the PBOC to ease; European equities rose, led by Italian banks which surged ahead of a meeting to discuss the rescue of various insolvent Italian banks, while mining stocks jumped buoyed by rising metal prices with signs of a pick-up in Chinese industrial demand.

Japan Says G-20 Accord Barring FX Devaluations Does Not "Rule Out Intervention" In The Yen

Earlier today, Japan's government spokesman Suga came as close as possible to admitting that there was in fact a tacit "Shanghai Accord" agreement when he said that the Group of 20's agreement to avoid competitive currency devaluation "does not mean Japan cannot intervene in response to one-sided currency moves." It got better: in an interview with Reuters Suga added that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's comment to the Wall Street Journal last week that countries should avoid "arbitrary intervention," was misunderstood and does not rule out intervention for Japan, Suga said.

Deutsche Bank Is Crashing Again As European Banks Slide To Crisis Lows

As of this moment, various European banks but most prominently Deutsche Bank as well as Credit Suisse and RBS, have been crashing back to lows hit in early February and then all the way back to the March 2009 "the world is ending" lows. The problem is that now that global central banks are more focused on appeasing China and keeping the USD weaker (by way of a dovish, non-data dependent Fed), the pain for Europe (and Japan), and their currencies, and their banking sector, will likely only get worse. This is precisely the case proposed by Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital, who explains below his "Short European Bank Thesis."

The Path To The Final Crisis

We cannot be sure what shape the next crisis will take, although it seems likely that it will be yet another “deflation scare”, mainly caused by falling asset prices. However, we do know what the last crisis of the current system will look like. It will entail a crumbling of the public’s faith in fiat money and the institutions that issue and administer it.

Why Currency Traders Are So Confused

"The FX market is confusing this year. More easing by the BoJ, the RBNZ, the Riksbank, the ECB and the Norges Bank, led to stronger currencies, despite delivering more than markets had expected in all cases. The market seems to be taking recent monetary policy easing as evidence that central banks are reaching their limits, as their forward guidance has sent mixed signals."

Will The Fed Follow The BoJ Down The NIRP Rabbit Hole?

At this point, one wonders why any central banker would chase down the NIRP rabbit hole only to find themselves the protagonist in the latest retelling of "Krugman in Wonderland," but alas, the experiment continues. The only question now is this: will the FOMC take the plunge? Here's a chronological list of Fed NIRP commentary.

Frontrunning: March 11

  • Shares bounce, euro fades after savage ECB reaction (Reuters)
  • Trump's Islam comments draw attacks as Republicans discover civility (Reuters)
  • Oil Prices Rise on Hopes Glut Will Ease (WSJ)
  • IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut (BBG)
  • Why Euro-Area Inflation Will Be Low for Years, According to Draghi (BBG)
  • Calmer markets, positive data prime Fed to push ahead with rate rises (Reuters)

Asian Surge Continues As Rally Stalls In Europe; S&P Futures Unchanged

While Asian stocks continued their longest rally since August overnight, led higher for the third consecutive day on the back of Japan (+1.3%), Australia (+1.2%) and China (+0.4%) strength, European stocks have as of this moment halted their longest rally since October (Stoxx -0.1%) and U.S. index futures are little changed. Oil slipped from an eight-week high despite yesterday's massive rise in US oil inventories on hopes Saudi Arabia may be forced to cut production as its budget strains grow actue and the kingdom is forced to seek a $10 billion loan, its first material borrowing in a decade.

Frontrunning: February 26

  • Fight night: Rubio, Cruz gang up on Trump in debate ploy (Reuters)
  • Laid Bare in Shanghai: G-20 Tensions Over How to Spur Growth (BBG)
  • China Flags Scope for Policy Stimulus, Tweaks Monetary Stance (BBG)
  • Global Stocks Rise With Commodities as China Sees Room to Ease (BBG)
  • Greece seeks to stem migrant flow as thousands trapped by border limits (Reuters)