Equities Supported By Optimism Of Positive ECB Surprise

Today the lingering problems of the "emerging" world and concerns about the Fed's tapering take a back seat to what the European Central Bank may do, which ranges from nothing, to a rate cut (which sends deposit rates negative), to outright, unsterilized QE - we will find out shortly: with 61 out of the 66 economists polled by Bloomberg looking for no rate changes from the ECB today it virtually assures a surprise . However, despite - or perhaps in spite of - various disappointing news overnight, most notably German factory orders which missed -0.5% on expectations of a +0.2% print, down from 2.4%, the USDJPY has been supported which as everyone knows by now, is all that matters, even if it was unable to push the Nikkei 225 higher for the second day in a row and the Japanese correction persists.

Frontrunning: January 30

  • Only time will define Bernanke's crisis-era legacy at Fed (Reuters)
  • Record Cash Leaves Emerging Market ETFs (BBG)
  • Investors Look Toward Safer Options as Ground Shifts (WSJ)
  • Fed Policy Makers Rally Behind Tapering QE as Yellen Era Begins (BBG)
  • Rating agencies criticise China’s bailout of failed $500m trust (FT)
  • Russia to await new Ukraine government before fully implementing rescue (Reuters)
  • U.S. readies financial sanctions against Ukraine: congressional aides (Reuters)
  • Companies resist president’s call for minimum wage rise (FT)
  • Secret Swiss Funds at Risk as Italy’s Saccomanni Visits Bern (BBG)
  • Top Democrat puts Obama trade deals in doubt (FT)
  • Erdogan to Give Rate Increase Time Before Trying Other Plans (BBG)
GoldCore's picture

Nearly six years after the financial crisis and its massive bailout, it looks like business as usual by the bankers in RBS and in the City of London and Wall Street ... The smart money is either continuing to accumulate physical or transporting already purchased bullion from storage in the U.S., Canada, Europe and other western countries to storage in Asia.


Frontrunning: January 23

  • Gross Told El-Erian ‘Hell No’ Seeking to Stop Departure (BBG)
  • How Caterpillar got bulldozed in China (Reuters)
  • Davos Bankers Struggle to Convince Elite That Markets Are Safer (BBG)
  • Lucrative Role as Middleman Puts Amazon in Tough Spot (WSJ)
  • Arctic Air Blankets Northern U.S. as Texas to Get Snow (BBG)
  • Lenovo buys IBM's server business in China's biggest IT acquisition (Reuters)
  • SEC judge bars "Big Four" China units for six months over audits (Reuters)
  • U.S. Accuses Security Background Check Firm of Fraud (WSJ)
  • RIP BOE forward guidance: Bank of England rate rise is 'still some way off' - Fisher (Reuters)

Turkish Lira Crumbles To New Record Low As Erdogan Blames Fed Not Politics

"It is wrong to link [the Turkish Lira's] fall to the corruption probe," blasted Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan, explaining that the Lira's fall "is linked to the Federal Reserve's actions." Since the taper was announced the Lira has collapsed over 12%, trading at 2.269 to the USD, a record low for the troubled nation's currency. Of course, the timing is useful for the PM to explain his nation's demise (as it is also proving a good excuse for Thailand - with massive outflows amid its riots; and Ukraine) but it seems the problems on the streets of Turkey are anything but going away. Today's drop in the Lira (the 7th in a row) follows a somewhat surprising "disastrous for their credibility" decision by the Turkish Central Bank to leave rates unchanged (and still warn of inflation).

Frontrunning: January 8

  • Here comes JPM's next multibillion legal reserve: Federal Probe Targets Banks Over Bonds (WSJ)
  • Mulally Bows Out of Microsoft CEO Race, Staying at Ford (BBG)
  • United States sending more troops and tanks to South Korea (Reuters)
  • Eurozone unemployment sticks at record high (FT)
  • China-Japan 'Voldemort' attacks up ante in propaganda war (Reuters)
  • Alternative Lenders Peddle Pricey Commercial Loans (WSJ)
  • John McAfee: glad Intel dropping name from security software (Reuters)
  • Jobless Benefits Bill Stays Alive Amid Talks on Offsets (BBG)
  • Chicago Colder Than South Pole as Frigid Air Clamps Down (BBG)
  • Former Miss Venezuela shot dead in attempted robbery (Reuters)

Frontrunning: January 7

  • Yellen’s Record-Low Senate Support Reflects Fed’s Politicization (BBG)
  • Euro-Zone Inflation Rate Falls in December, even further below ECB's target (WSJ)
  • Zambia politician charged for calling president a potato (AFP)
  • Blame gold: India Savings Deposit Scam Collapse Leaves Thousands Penniless (BBG)
  • Hedge Funds Raise Gold Wagers as Yamada Sees $1,000 (BBG)
  • George Osborne limits cuts options with pensions promise (FT)
  • Vietnam Raises Foreign Bank Ownership Caps to Aid System (BBG)
  • But they said buy a year ago... Goldman to JPMorgan Say Sell Emerging Markets After Slide (BBG)
  • SAC Trial Seen by Probe Convict as Latest Abusive Tactic (BBG)

2013 Financial Year In Review

From the first headline to the last, the following brief month-by-month summary of the year shows just how far markets and global happenings have come...

Frontrunning: December 20

  • China cash injection fails to calm lenders (AFP)
  • European Union Stripped of AAA Credit Rating at S&P (BBG)
  • Last-Minute Health-Site Enrollment Proves a Hard Sell (WSJ)
  • Bernanke’s Recession-Fighting Weapon Developed by 1900s Banker (BBG)
  • Asia Stocks Are Little Changed Amid China Funding Concern (BBG)
  • Regulators' Guidance on Volcker Rule Gives Banks Little Relief on Debt Sales (WSJ)
  • On one hand: Man Who Said No to Soros Builds BlueCrest Into Empire (BBG); on the other: Michael Platt's BlueCrest Capital Poised for Rough Close to 2013 (WSJ)
  • BOJ Keeps Record Easing as Fed Taper Helps Weaken Yen (BBG)
  • Bank of England becomes more cautious on economic predictions (FT)
  • Gold Climbs From Lowest Close Since 2010 as Goldman Sees Losses (BBG)

The Taper Morning After: A Full Summary Of What "They" Are Saying

Strategists were largely wrong about the yes taper in September, and then they were just as largely wrong about the no taper in December, and yet their opinion is just as largely gospel and people continue to listen to them (what else is there to be distracted by in a still very much centrally-planned market and economy). Which is why the below summary by Bloomberg of what global financial strategists and investors, also known as "they", are saying about how to trade assets in the post-taper world, should probably be taken, largely, with a grain of salt.

Frontrunning: December 18

  • MOAR: BOJ Said to See Significant Room for More Bond Purchases (BBG)
  • Meltdown Averted, Bernanke Struggled to Stoke Growth (Hilsenrath)
  • New Mortgages to Get Pricier Next Year (WSJ)
  • Republicans to Seek Concessions From Obama on Debt Limit (BBG)
  • Hunting for U.S. arms technology, China enlists a legion of amateurs (Reuters)
  • Jury Begins Deliberating in Case of SAC Portfolio Manager (WSJ)
  • BP to Write Off $1 Billion on Failed Well (WSJ)
  • Rajan Unexpectedly Keeps India Rates Unchanged to Support Growth (BBG)
  • Thai protesters say they will rally to hound PM from office (Reuters)
  • SEC Brings Fewer Enforcement Actions, Slows Early-Stage Probes (WSJ)

Frontrunning: December 17

  • Fed’s $4 Trillion Assets Draw Lawmaker Ire Amid Bubble Concern (BBG)
  • Ex-Goldmanite Fab Tourre fined more than $1 million (WSJ)
  • EU Banks Shrink Assets by $1.1 Trillion as Capital Ratios Rise (BBG)
  • Japan to bolster military, boost Asia ties to counter China (Reuters)
  • China condemns Abe for criticizing air defense zone (Reuters)
  • Insider-Trading Case May Hinge on Phone Call (WSJ)
  • Republicans Gird for Debt-Ceiling Fight (WSJ)
  • Mario Draghi pushes bank union deal (FT)
  • German Coalition Plans More Pension Money (WSJ)
  • Oil Supply Surge Brings Calls to Ease U.S. Export Ban (BBG)