RBS

Frontrunning: December 5

  • Apple, China Mobile Sign Deal to Offer iPhone (WSJ)
  • Japan approves $182 billion economic package, doubts remain (Reuters)
  • Volcker Rule Won't Allow Banks to Use 'Portfolio Hedging' (WSJ)
  • He went, he saw, he achieved nothing: Biden's Trip to Beijing Leaves China Air-Zone Rift Open (WSJ)
  • Britain announces sharp upward revision to growth forecasts (Reuters)
  • U.S. Airlines to Mortgage-Backed Debt Top List of Best ’14 Bets (BBG)
  • Thaksin's homecoming hopes dashed as Thai crisis reignites (Reuters)
  • Age of Austerity Nearing End May Boost Global Economy (BBG) - or it may expose that it was just corruption and incompetence at fault all along
  • China aims to establish network of high-level FTAs (China Daily)

Futures Fail To Ramp On Lack Of Yen Carry Excitement

While there was a plethora of macro data (starting with some ugly numbers out of Australia which clobbered AUD pairs overnight), China HSBC Services PMI dipping slighlty from 52.6 to 52.5, Final Eurozone PMI Services (printing at 51.2 up from 50.9 and beating expectations of the same on an increase in German PMI numbers from 54.5 to 55.7 and a decline in French PMI from 48.8 to 48.0), Eurozone retail sales declining by 0.2%, on expectations of an unchanged print, and much more (see  below), perhaps the most important news of the day came from Japan which many expect will be the source of much more easing in the coming months and thus serve as marginal lever to push global fungible markets higher. However, not only did various BOJ officials for the first time in a while talk down expectations of a QE boost, but the head of the Japan GPIF said that it doesn't need to sell JGBs right now as it would "rock markets" and that instead can achieve its targeted 52% weighing as bonds mature, that it may buy foreign bonds instead to raise weighting to core target (as the Fed buys Japan bonds?), and that it will be very difficult for Japan to hit the BOJ's inflation target in 2 years. Is Japan already getting cold feet on rumors of more QE and did it realize there are only so many assets it can monetize. If so, watch out below on the EURJPY which has now priced in about 700 pips of expected BOJ QE boosting in early 2014.

Frontrunning: December 3

  • With website improved, Obama to pitch health plan (Reuters)
  • Joe Biden condemns China over air defence zone (FT)
  • Tally of U.S. Banks Sinks to Record Low (WSJ)
  • Black Friday Weekend Spending Drop Pressures U.S. Stores (BBG)
  • Cyber Monday Sales Hit Record as Amazon to EBay Win Shoppers (BBG)
  • Ukraine's Pivot to Moscow Leaves West Out in the Cold (WSJ)
  • Investment banks set to cut pay again despite rise in profits (FT)
  • Worst Raw-Material Slump Since ’08 Seen Deepening (BBG)
  • Democrats Face Battles in South to Hold the Senate (WSJ)
  • Hong Kong reports 1st case of H7N9 bird flu (AP)
  • In Fracking, Sand Is the New Gold (WSJ)

Frontrunning: November 18

  • What can possibly go wrong: Tepco Successfully Removes First Nuclear Fuel Rods at Fukushima (BBG)
  • Japan's Banks Find It Hard to Lend Easy Money (WSJ)
  • U.S. Military Eyes Cut to Pay, Benefits (WSJ)
  • Airbus to Boeing Cash In on Desert Outpost Made Field of Dreams (BBG); Dubai Air Show: Boeing leads order books race (BBG)
  • Sony sells 1 million PlayStation 4 units in first 24 hours (Reuters)
  • Russian Tycoon Prokhorov to Buy Kerimov's Uralkali Stake (WSJ)
  • Google Opening Showrooms to Show Off Gadgets for Holidays (BBG)
  • Need. Moar. Prop. Trading: Federal Reserve considering a delay to Volcker rule (FT)
  • Raghuram Rajan plans ‘dramatic remaking’ of India’s banking system (FT)
  • SAC Capital's Steinberg faces insider trading trial (Reuters)

The Only Two Charts That Matter For The Fed

1. The Fed now owns 32.47% of all 10 Year equivalents, up 32.22% from the prior week, and rising at a pace of 0.3% per week.

2. The Fed is now monetizing a record 70% of all net US 10 Year equivalent issuance.

RBS: "The Fed Is Now Responsible For Monetizing A Record 70% Of All Net Bond Supply"

The following statement and chart from the RBS' Drew Brick pretty much explains it all: "QE has seen the Fed extend its dominion on the US curve away from the short-end and into longer duration paper is patent, too. On a rolling six-month average, in fact, the Fed is now responsible for monetizing a record 70% of all net supply measured in 10y equivalents. This represents a reliance on the Fed that is greater than ever before in history!"

 

Frontrunning: November 11

  • Philippines Left Reeling in Wake of Storm (WSJ)
  • Khamenei controls massive financial empire built on property seizures (RTRS)
  • Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew (BBG)
  • U.S. Postal Service to deliver Amazon packages on Sundays  (LA Times)
  • Obama Stocks Among Best After Re-Election as Rally Tested (BBG)
  • Health-Law Rollout Weighs on Obama's Ratings, Agenda (WSJ)
  • Twitter in Celebrity Spat With Facebook as Rivalry Builds (BBG)
  • Iran deputy industry minister shot dead (AFP)
  • Financier of Taliban-linked group shot dead in Pakistan (RTRS)
  • Obama: The Lonely Guy (Vanity Fair)

Frontrunning: November 6

  • Christie Sets Himself Up for Run in 2016 (WSJ)
  • De Blasio Elected Next New York City Mayor in Landslide (WSJ)
  • Hilsenrath: Fed Study: Rate Peg Off Mark (WSJ)
  • MF Global Customers Will Recover All They Lost (NYT) - amazing what happens when you look under the rug
  • Virginia, Alabama Voter Choices Show Tea Party Declining (BBG)
  • Explosions kill 1, injure 8 in north China city (Reuters)
  • Toyota boosts full-year guidance as weak yen drives revenues (FT)
  • Starbucks wants to recruit 10,000 vets, spouses to its ranks (Reuters)
  • U.S. Economy Slack Justifies Stimulus, Top Fed Staff Papers Show (BBG)
  • Israel set to become major gas exporter (FT)

Frontrunning: November 5

  • China premier warns against loose money policies (Reuters)
  • Brussels forecasts tepid Eurozone growth (FT)
  • SAC Case Began With Informant’s Tips on Cohen, Rajaratnam (BBG)
  • Dirty Munich Home’s Nazi Loot Estimated at $1.35 Billion (BBG)
  • Mortar hits Vatican embassy in Damascus, no casualties (Reuters)
  • India Launches Mars Mission (WSJ)
  • Lael Brainard to leave Treasury, heading to Fed (FT)
  • U.S. Takes Aim at 'Forced' Insurance (WSJ)
  • Wife of Jeff Bezos attacks book about Amazon (FT)
  • Fall of Brazil’s Batista embarrasses President Dilma Rousseff (FT)
  • The One Thing People Still Really Like About BlackBerry (BusinessWeek)

Frontrunning: November 1

  • US admits surveillance on foreign governments ‘reached too far’ (FT)
  • He must be so proud: Obama halted NSA spying on IMF and World Bank headquarters (RTRS)
  • Obamacare website gets new tech experts; oversight pressure grows (Reuters)
  • R.B.S. to Split Off $61 Billion in Loans Into Internal ‘Bad Bank’ (NYT)
  • Draghi’s Deflation Risk Complicates Recovery (BBG)
  • Abenomics: Nissan slashes full-year profit forecast 15% (FT)
  • Credit Suisse Dismisses London Trader Over 'Unusual Trading' Losses (WSJ)
  • RBS avoids break-up with 38 billion pounds 'internal bad bank' (Reuters)
  • Twitter Said to Attract More Than Enough Interest for IPO (BBG)

Hungover Markets Enter November With Quiet Overnight Session

After a blistering October for stocks, drunk on yet another month of record liquidity by the cental planners, November's first overnight trading session has been quiet so far, with the highlight being the release of both official and HSBC China PMI data. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in October from 51.1 in September. It managed to beat expectations of 51.2 and was also the highest reading in 18 months - since April 2012. October’s PMIs are historically lower than those for September, so the MoM uptick is considered a bit more impressive. The uptrend in October was also confirmed by the final HSBC manufacturing PMI which printed at 50.9 which is higher than the preliminary reading of 50.7 and September’s reading of 50.9. The Chinese data has helped put a floor on Asian equities overnight and S&P 500 futures are nudging higher (+0.15%). The key laggard are Japanese equities where the TOPIX (-1.1%) is weaker pressured by a number of industrials, ahead of a three day weekend. Electronics-maker Sony is down 12% after surprising the market with a profit downgrade with this impacting sentiment in Japanese equities.

Frontrunning: October 30

  • Morning Humor from Hilsenrath - Fed Balance Sheet Not Seen Returning to Normal Until at Least 2019 (WSJ)
  • Health Policies Canceled in Latest Hurdle for Obamacare (BBG)
  • Was there anything RBS was not manipulating? RBS Said to Review Currency-Trading Practices Amid Probe (BBG)
  • Sebelius to Testify Before House Panel (WSJ)
  • And more humor: Spain's Statistics Institute Confirms End of Recession (WSJ) ... and now we await the triple dip
  • Finally some credible reporting on Yellen's "foresight" - Yellen feared housing bust but did not raise public alarm (Reuters)
  • Japan government moves closer to Fukushima takeover (FT)
  • China to step up own security after new NSA allegations (Reuters)
  • Blackstone Vies With Goldman in Spain Rental Housing Bet (BBG)
  • In new U.S. budget talks, Republican proposal has flipped the script (Reuters)

Despite (Or Thanks To) More Macro Bad News, Overnight Futures Levitate To New All Time Highs

The overnight fireworks out of China's interbank market, which saw a surge in repo and Shibor rates (O/N +78 to 5.23%, 1 Week +64.6 to 5.59%) once more following the lack of a follow through reverse repo as described previously, and once again exposed the rogue gallery of sellside "analysts" as clueless penguins all of whom predicted a quick resumption of Chinese interbank normalcy, did absolutely nothing to make the San Diego's weatherman's forecast of the overnight Fed-driven futures any more difficult: "stocks will be... up. back to you." And so they were, despite as DB puts it, "yesterday saw another round of slightly softer US data that helped drive the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to fresh highs" and "the release of weaker than expected Japanese IP numbers hasn’t dampened sentiment in Japanese equities" or for that matter megacorp Japan Tobacco firing 20% of its workforce - thanks Abenomics. Ah, remember when data mattered? Nevermind - long live and prosper in the New Normal. Heading into US trading, today the markets will be transfixed by the FOMC announcement at 2 pm, which will likely say nothing at all (although there is a chance for a surprise - more shortly), and to a lesser extent the ADP Private Payrolls number, which as many have suggested, that if it prints at 0 or goes negative, 1800 on the S&P is assured as early as today.

October FOMC Week Starts With Traditional Overnight Meltup

Just as it is easy being a weatherman in San Diego ("the weather will be... nice. Back to you"), so the same inductive analysis can be applied to another week of stocks in Bernanke's centrally planned market: "stocks will be... up." Sure enough, as we enter October's last week where the key events will be the conclusion of the S&P earnings season and the October FOMC announcement (not much prop bets on a surprise tapering announcement this time), overnight futures have experienced the latest off the gates, JPY momentum ignition driven melt up.