RBS

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Frontrunning: October 4





  • Romney dominates presidential debate (FT)
  • What Romney’s Debate Victory Means (Bloomberg)
  • Obama Lead Shrinks in Two Battlegrounds (WSJ)
  • "Everything will fall apart unless the Spanish conditions are extremely tough" German policy-maker (Telegraph)
  • Draghi Stares at Spain as Brinkmanship Keeps ECB Waiting (Bloomberg)
  • RBS facing loss after Spanish property firm collapse (Telegraph)
  • Burdened by Old Mortgages, Banks Are Slow to Lend Now (WSJ)
  • The Woman Who Took the Fall for JPMorgan Chase (NYT)
  • European Banks Told to Hold On to $258 Billion of Fresh Capital (Bloomberg)
  • Europe Weighs More Sanctions as Iran’s Currency Plummets (Bloomberg)
 
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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: October 2





Equity markets continued to edge higher today as market participants grew hopeful that a full scale bailout of Spain will take place in the very near future. So much so that even though reports that Spain is to seek bailout this weekend was denied, the risk on sentiment held strong. As a result, SP/GE and IT/GE bond yield spreads tightened further, with IT 10s now yielding close to 5%. The renewed sense of security saw EUR/USD squeeze higher towards the psychologically important 1.3000 level, while GBP/USD also benefited from a weaker USD and is trading in minor positive territory in spite of another round of disappointing macro data from the UK. Going forward, the second half of the session sees the release of the latest ISM New York index, as well as the regular weekly API report. Both the BoE and the Fed are due to conduct another round of asset purchases at 1445BST and 1600BST respectively.

 
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Frontrunning: October 2





  • RBA Cuts Rate to 3.25% as Mining-Driven Growth Wanes (Reuters)
  • Republicans Not Buying Bernanke’s QE3 Defense (WSJ)
  • Spain ready for bailout, Germany signals "wait" (Reuters)
  • EU says prop trading and investment banking should be separated from deposit taking (Reuters)
  • Call for bank bonuses to be paid in debt (FT)
  • Spanish Banks Need More Capital Than Tests Find, Moody’s Says (Bloomberg) ... as we explained on Friday
  • "Fiscal cliff" to hit 90% of US families (FT)
  • The casualties of Chesapeake's "land grab" across America (Reuters)
  • U.K. Government Needs to Do More to Boost Weak Economy, BCC Says (Bloomberg)
  • World Bank Sees Long Crisis Effect (WSJ)
  • UBS Co-Worker Says He Used Adoboli’s Umbrella Account (Bloomberg)
  • And more easing: South Korea central bank switches tack to encourage growth (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: September 25





  • China carrier a show of force as Japan tension festers (Reuters)
  • Draghi Rally Lets Skeptics Dump Spain for Bunds (Bloomberg)
  • China’s Central Bank Injects Record Funds to Ease Cash Crunch (Bloomberg)
  • Obama warns Iran on nuclear bid, containment 'no option' (Reuters)
  • When Would Bernanke’s Successor Raise Rates? (WSJ) that's easy - never
  • Italy's Monti Downplays Sovereignty Risk (WSJ)
  • Portugal swaps pay cuts for tax rises (FT)
  • Madrid faces regional funding backlash (FT)
  • Berlin Seeks to Push Back New Euro-Crisis Aid Requests (WSJ)
  • Race Focuses on Foreign Policy (WSJ)
  • China Speeds Up Approvals of Foreigners’ Stock Investment (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: September 19





  • Deposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency (Bloomberg)
  • BOJ eases monetary policy as global slowdown bites (Reuters)
  • Stalled Rally Puts Pressure on Spain (WSJ)
  • Missed Chances Stoke Skepticism Over EU’s Crisis Fight (Bloomberg)
  • Germany's big worry: China, not Greece (Reuters)
  • Goldman names new CFO, heralding end of an era (Reuters)
  • Russia Demands U.S. Agency Halt Work (WSJ)
  • Fed’s Dudley Says Easing Vital to Spur Too-Slow Growth (Bloomberg)
  • Romney under fire from all sides (FT)
  • Poland cuts red tape to spur growth (FT)
  • IMF to Put Argentina on Path to Censure Over Inflation Data (Bloomberg)
 
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Bob Janjuah - "Central Banks Are Attempting The Grossest Misallocation And Mispricing Of Capital In The History Of Mankind"





"The bottom line is simple: The Fed and the ECB are directing and attempting to orchestrate the grossest misallocation and mispricing of capital in the history of mankind. Their problem is that their actions have enormous unintended and even (eventually) intended consequences which serve to negate their actions in the shorter run, and which could create even bigger problems than we currently face in the near future. Kicking the can is not a viable policy for us now. The private sector knows all this, consciously and/or sub-consciously, which is why I feel these current policy settings are doomed to fail. Having said all that, the one area which for some reason still holds onto hope that Draghi and Bernanke can still perform feats of "magic" is the financial market, which central bankers assume, rely on and are happy to encourage Pavlovian responses. The reality here though is that even financial markets are, collectively, either sensing or assigning a half-life to the "positives" of central bank debasement policies, which to me means that even markets are only suggesting a short-term benefit from the latest policy actions. This is not what Draghi and Bernanke are hoping for, but in order for them to see the half-life outcome averted they know that we need to see major political and structural real economy reforms which somehow make Western workers competitive and hopeful again. The track record of the last four to five years inspires very little confidence that we will see such great necessary reformist strides taken anytime soon."

 
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Frontrunning: September 14





  • Weeks before U.S. election, Mideast gives Obama perfect storm (Reuters)
  • Clashes intensify near US embassy in Cairo (Al Jazeera)
  • Puppet governments in trouble: Mursi Risks Rift With U.S. or Voters as Islamists Rally (Bloomberg)
  • Protests Put Egypt Relations on Edge (WSJ)
  • Fed insists politics had no role in decision (FT)
  • UBS "rogue trader" fraudulently gambled away $2.3 billion, court told (Reuters)
  • Obama Holds Lead in Three Key States (WSJ)
  • China's Xi recovering from bad back, could appear soon - sources (Reuters)
  •  Japan voices anger over Chinese incursion after vessels entered waters around disputed Senkaku islands  (FT)
  • Goldman Scales Back Junior-Analyst Program; No Contracts for College Hires (WSJ)
  • China commentary slams Romney's "foolish" China-bashing (Reuters)
  • Aging Baby Boomers Face Losing Care as Filipinos Go Home (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: August 22





  • Merkel's Dilemma: Risk Euro Zone or Her Government (WSJ)... as first suggest by ZH 2 months ago, with only one resolution: referendum
  • Russia warns West over Syria after Obama threats (Reuters)
  • Consider keeping Bernanke, Romney adviser Glenn Hubbard says (Reuters)... Glenn Hubbard is the star of the movie Inside Job
  • Spain Deficit Goals at Risk as Cuts Consensus Fades (Bloomberg)
  • Czech Austerity Revolt Threatens Cabinet as Slump Bites (Bloomberg)
  • Greek cuts to be deeper than trailed (FT)
  • Akin rebuffs Romney, Republican calls to quit Senate race (Reuters)
  • Obama Leads Romney in Poll Showing Disdain for Congress (Bloomberg)
  • Greece needs more time to reform, PM Samaras tells paper (Reuters)
  • UK banks face scandal over toxic insurance products (Reuters)
  • Iceland Shelves Monetary Tightening as Krona Seen Appreciating (Bloomberg)
  • India Considers $35 Billion Debt Revamp After Biggest Blackout (Bloomberg)
 
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Guest Post: The 'Beautiful' Deleveraging





Bridgewater's Ray Dalio is quoted in a recent Barron’s interview, describing the current phase of the U.S. deleveraging experience as “beautiful”. He goes on to explain the three options for reducing debt: austerity, restructuring and printing money. “A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful deleveraging.” That sounds pretty good and makes sense. Or does it?

 
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Complete Q2 Hedge Fund Holdings Summary





Q2 hedge fund reporting season has come and gone. Below is a summary of the key funds, and who held what at the end of June.

 
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Peeking Beneath The Surface Of The 'Most Hated' Stock Rally





Since hope re-blossomed at the start of June and was reignited by Mario's musings, the equity markets of the US and Europe have surged in an outpouring of faith in central bank excess and policy-maker's abilities to 'fix' everything (despite decades of truth that points in the exact opposite direction). But while the market levitates on ever-increasing multiples (as earnings current and forward are dragged lower by the economic reality of a debt-deleveraging world), the true picture of what is driving stocks become clear. For the first time since the BTFD rally began in March of 2009, cyclical stocks (or economically-sensitive firms) are underperforming notably - implying notably lower expectations for a levered recovery by the consumer. As Bloomberg's Chart of the day notes, either the economy will hockey-stick back to a significant rebound or broad equity market indices will fall back to a more defensive reality - given the non-economy-helping nature of LTRO/QE, we suspect the latter. Do you believe in miracles?

 
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"RBS Algo Went Berserk"





This Monday, a few shorts days after the Knight algorithm decided to do what it and the Fed does best, and go on a shopping spree, gobbling up $7 billion in stocks in 45 minutes and in the process almost destroying its host like any self-respecting virus, something weird happened with the 1.20-pegged EURCHF in the minutes after the marked closed: it shot up for no reason, only to slam right back down. Some speculated it was a fat finger. Turns out they were right. Only with a twist, as first it appears it was purely human error, which in turn set of an avalanche of algo trades which had no idea why they were buying, except that someone else was buying, so they had to be buying: the purest definition of momentum trading insanity, where one buys or sells with no rhyme or reason, but simple because someone else, marginal enough, is moving the market. And that is why every single capital market: stocks, bonds, commodities and FX, is always one trade away from total collapse.

 
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Frontrunning: August 3





  • U.S. nuclear bomb facility shut after security breach (Reuters)
  • EU Commission Welcomes Greek Reform Pledge, Wants Implementation (Reuters) -> less talkee, more tickee
  • China Cuts Stock Trading Costs to Lift Confidence (China Daily) as France hikes transactions costs
  • Holding Fire—for Now—but Laying Plans (WSJ)
  • ECB-Politicians’ Anti-Crisis Bargain Starts to Emerge (Bloomberg)
  • Dollar falls back as non-farm payrolls loom (FT)
  • Ethics Plan to Raise Consumer Confidence (China Daily)
  • Brazil backslides on protecting the Amazon (Reuters) - fair weather progressive idealism?
  • Japan Foreign-Bond Debate May Boost BOJ Stimulus Odds (Bloomberg)
  • Japan’s Lower House Passes Bill to Let Workers Stay on to 65 (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: August 2





  • What's wrong with this headline: Obama authorizes secret support for Syrian rebels (Reuters)
  • Hilsenrath promptly dusts off ashes of sheer propaganda failure, tries again: Fed Gives Stronger Signals of Action (WSJ)
  • Fed Hints at Fresh Action on Economy (FT)
  • Fed Poised to Step Up Stimulus Unless Economy Strengthens (Bloomberg)
  • IMF Chief Lagarde Praises Greece, Spain for Efforts (Bloomberg) - efforts to beg as loud as possible?
  • US sanctions against bank 'target' China (China Daily)
  • Trimming China's Financial Hedges (WSJ)
  • ganda central bank cuts key lending rate to 17 pct (Reuters)
  • Greece Agrees €11.5bn Spending Cuts (FT) - Agrees? Or does what a good debt slave is told to do
  • Germany Retains Stable AAA Outlook at S&P After Moody’s Cut (Bloomberg)
  • Spain’s Bond Auction Beats Target as Borrowing Costs Rise (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: July 31





  • Hilsenrath: Heat Rises on Central Banks (WSJ)
  • Some at Fed Are Urging Pre-Emptive Stimulus (NYT)
  • Obama Warns of Headwinds in Europe; Urges European Leaders to Take Decisive Action on Euro (WSJ) - also needs reelection
  • ECB thinks the unthinkable, action likely weeks away (Reuters)
  • Games Turn London Into ‘Ghost Town.’ (FT)
  • Greek Leaders Seek to Defer Austerity Cuts (FT)
  • Hong Kong Builders Unload Properties to Raise Cash for Land Rush (Bloomberg)
  • North India Crippled by Power Cuts (FT)
  • Euro-Area Unemployment Rate Reaches Record 11.2% on Crisis (Bloomberg)
  • Italy's Monti sees hope of end to euro crisis (Reuters)
 
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