RBS

• Win or lose, Cameron's political career hangs by a thread (Reuters)
• Greece aims for deal with lenders, IMF hard on reforms: minister (Reuters)
• Greek Jobless Legacy Adds Danger for Tsipras as Funds Dry Up (BBG)
• U.S. Will Change Stance on Secret Phone Tracking (WSJ)
• China April HSBC PMI shows biggest drop in factory activity in a year (Reuters)
• Goldman Sachs in Talks to Sell Its Coal Mines (WSJ)
• Takeover Fuel Begins to Flow as S&P 500 Bull Run Makes History (BBG)

• Record month ends in pain as biotech, small-caps, Apple tumble (BBG)
• Japan inflation rises for first time in nearly a year (WSJ)
• US Navy starts to accompany ships in strait where Iran seized cargo carrier (WSJ)
• Russia may be readying for new Ukraine offensive: NATO commander (Reuters)
• Big banks use loophole to avoid ban (WSJ)
• China April official PMI shows factories struggling to grow (Reuters)
• CME suspends traders for alleged Sarao-like manipulation (BBG)

As Bloomberg summarizes the various opinions suggested by Wall Street analysts, the rout in German debt and other European sovereign bonds was caused by market-technical factors such as investor positioning and supply glut rather than shift in views on economic outlook, analysts say, with profit-taking on successful QE trades, thin market liquidity and position-squaring before month-end are cited among main bearish catalysts.

The biggest overnight story was neither out of China, where despite the ridiculous surge in new account openings and margin debt the SHCOMP dipped 08%, or out of Japan, where the Nikkei dropped 2.7%, the biggest drop in months, after the BOJ disappointed some by not monetizing more than 100% of net issuance and keeping QE unchanged, but Europe where for the second day in a row there was a furious selloff of Bunds at the open of trading, which briefly sent the yield on the 10Y to 0.38% (it was 0.6% two weeks ago), in turn sending the EURUSD soaring by almost 200 pips to a two month high of 1.1250, and weighing on US equity futures, before retracing some of the losses.

Today, China remains central to the notion that the world is in recovery.  It is believed to be growing at 7%: not as rapid as the 9% growth we’re used to seeing, but still dramatically higher than any of large country... Only the whole thing is bogus.

Everyone was shocked by yesterday's Chinese March trade update which showed that while imports slid largely as expected, it was the 15% drop in exports, the largest in over a year, that prompted many to wonder just how big the global trade slump really is, masked by what has now become pervasive, global QE. This was the worst performance, exports and imports combined, since late 2009.  Below is a selection of responses by Wall Street analysts trying to justify how - with global equities, if only in local currency terms, at all time highs - China can be doing so badly.

We simply don’t see any time in the future that would see Americans start spending again at a rate anywhere near what would be required for an economic recovery. However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press; and so these issues must be addressed time and again until people begin to understand, and quit making the wrong decisions for the wrong reasons. People have a right to know what’s truly happening to their lives, and their societies. And they’re not nearly getting enough of it through the ‘official’ press.

"The fair value of hedges held by 57 U.S. companies in the Bloomberg Intelligence North America Independent Explorers and Producers index rose to $26 billion as of Dec. 31, a fivefold increase from the end of September," Bloomberg writes, noting that the very same Wall Street banks on the hook for the hedges also financed the shale boom.

As market participants slowly make their way back to trading desks around the post-Easter world, and especially the US where a truncated session on Friday morning ended in tears for anyone hoping for a 2015 US recovery following an abysmal March nonfarm payrolls print, they find that unlike on previous occasions, the equity futures liftathon is nowhere to be found this morning, with the S&P set to resume trading in the red for 2015. Away from Greece, whose future remains in limbo, the biggest development over the holiday weekend was a Goldman note in which the central-bank friendly firm said that "the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now."

And against this disatsrous backdrop… investors are completely bullish!

• Iran, powers push for nuclear deal as clock ticks toward deadline (Reuters)
• How DIY Bond Traders Displaced Wall Street’s Hot Shots (BBG)
• MillerCoors Caught in a Downdraft (WSJ)
• Saudi-led strikes again hit Yemen overnight (Reuters)
• Even With Free Money, Merkel Still Reluctant to Spend (BBG)
• Britain Uses Tax Breaks to Lure Digital-Game Developers (WSJ)
• China to Insure Deposits in Move Toward Scrapping Rate Curbs (BBG)
• As China Expands Its Navy, the U.S. Grows Wary (WSJ)

• Google's new CFO to make $70 million (WSJ)
• Senate passes Republican budget with deep safety net cuts (Reuters)
• With Yemen strikes, Saudis show growing independence from U.S. (Reuters)
• Banks Slash Dividends as Loans Sour From Beijing To Pearl River (BBG)
• North American Railroads Caught by Speed of Crude-Oil Collapse (BBG)
• Japan’s Zero Inflation a Setback for Abenomics (WSJ)
• Cooperman Says U.S. Seeks Information About Omega Trades (BBG)

• Germanwings Airbus crashes in France, 148 feared dead (Reuters)
• Greece promises list of reforms by Monday to unlock cash (Reuters)
• Merkel Points Tsipras Toward Deal With Greece’s Creditors (BBG)
• Banks Shift Bond Portfolios -Move to ‘held to maturity’ category aims to guard against rising rates, shield capital  (WSJ)
• Beijing to Shut All Major Coal Power Plants to Cut Pollution (BBG)
• As Silence Falls on Chicago Trading Pits, a Working-Class Portal Also Closes (NYT)
• Oil below $56 as Saudi output near record, China activity slows (Reuters)

• Saudis keep on pumping, oil prices keep on slumping (Reuters)
• Tenet Healthcare Nearing Deal to Buy United Surgical Partners (WSJ)
• Dizzying Pre-IPO Tech Values Spurred by Rush of Hedge-Fund Money (BBG)
• Russia threatens to aim nuclear missiles at Denmark ships if it joins NATO shield (Reuters)
• Torrent of Cash Exits Eurozone (WSJ)
• Draghi Cheerleads for Euro-Area Economy as Greek Risk Looms (BBG)
• Fortescue Mines for More Financing Options (WSJ)
• Topix Charts Evoke Calm Before ’13 Rout as Momentum Gains (BBG)

As Ronald Reagan said, trust, but verify!