Real estate

"Metals Traders On Red Alert" - Chinese Commodity Bubble 2.0 Just Imploded

Industrial metals commodity prices plunged by the most since March in the last 2 days as China’s exchanges (once again) clamped down on speculation by tightening trading rules. As Bloomberg reports, for the second time this year, trading has exploded on the nation’s exchanges, pushing prices of everything from zinc to coal to multi-year highs and sending authorities scrambling to deflate the bubble before it bursts.

Beige Book Finds Modest Economic Slowdown: Strong Dollar "Headwinds" Cited

The Fed's latest Beige Book released Wednesday found seven regional Fed districts reporting economic activity as growing at a modest or moderate pace, a decline from 11 in the last report, with strong dollar headwinds among one of the more frequently cited reasons for the weakness.

Aussie Housing Market Collapses: Building Approvals Crash 25%

Following September's 9.3% MoM plunge in Aussie home approvals, hopes were high that October would see a bounce (expectations were for a 2% gain) as central bankers jawboned confidence higher. However, it didn't... Building approvals collapsed 12.6% MoM and a shocking 24.9% year-over-year decline is equal to the worst drop since Lehman. Ironically, just this month Aussie Treasurer eased restrictions on foreign buyers (otherwise known as bag holders it would seem).

A Narrative For Every Season: Stocks, Before And After Trump

Following Donald Trump’s surprise victory and the violent market reactions, many investors are left scratching their heads. The consensus narrative warned that a Trump victory would spell doom for the markets. Days later, the narrative flipped and Trump’s economic policies, all of which were known prior to the election, are deemed beneficial for share prices.

US Home Prices Rise Above July 2006 Levels, Hit New Record High

Almost exactly ten years after the last housing bubble burst, unleashing a dramatic crash in US real estate prices today Case Shiller reported that as of September, its Index covering all nine U.S. census divisions, surpassed the peak set in July 2006 as the housing boom topped out, and in doing so the average home price has now climbed back above the record reached more than a decade ago.

Frontrunning: November 29

  • Monte dei Paschi’s Future Hangs on Sunday Vote (WSJ)
  • Trump Son-in-Law Jared Kushner Could Face Conflict-of-Interest Questions (WSJ)
  • In OPEC’s High-Stakes Poker Game, Iran and Iraq Call Saudi Bluff (BBG)
  • Iran, Iraq at loggerheads with Saudis ahead of OPEC meeting (Reuters)
  • High-Profile Private Investors Take Hit on Theranos (WSJ)

'Real' Money & Why You Need It Now, Part 2

"It might work for a while. But the falcon of asset prices becomes deaf to the falconer of the real economy. Then, in a kind of financial never-never land, he gets lost completely and flies into a tree. Asset prices fall to the ground. Investors panic. Lenders call their loans. Art investors rush to auction off their tableaux. Lines form at ATMs."

"We're Players In Several Giant Games Of Chicken..."

"The half-life of whatever OPEC does or doesn’t do is measured in days... weeks at most... Dollar up is bad. Dollar down is good. I don’t know how to say it more plainly than that, and all the Belief in the world about tax reform and repealing Dodd-Frank and all that doesn’t change this reality... Maybe you see that and maybe you don’t. I can promise you, though, that China sees it."

Why Is The US Dollar Rising?

So where will mobile capital flow in an environment of rising socio-political risk, a multi-year USD uptrend and a dearth of safe, liquid markets?

China Unveils New Capital Controls

China has unveiled plans to impose "capital controls" on Chinese merger activity overseas, intensifying efforts to slow a surge in capital fleeing offshore amid tepid growth and an uncertain economic outlook.