Following the default on major Chinese developer Kaisa this week, and with the continued softness in the Chinese property market, many are asking who's next among the highly-leveraged firms. However, as The Real Deal's Konrad Putzier notes, Kaisa’s default carries significance for New York’s real estate industry. Chinese investors spent $3 billion on New York properties in 2014. Many in New York continue to associate Chinese real estate companies with limitless funds and a never-ending ability to invest... But what if they are wrong?
It feels like not a single soul is worried about the increasing amount of negative interest rates around the world. Ignorance or indifference?
Today, China remains central to the notion that the world is in recovery. It is believed to be growing at 7%: not as rapid as the 9% growth we’re used to seeing, but still dramatically higher than any of large country... Only the whole thing is bogus.
Some economic facts that you did not know...
At HSBC — whose Swiss arm is the international gold standard for money laundering — Mexican drug cartels and terrorists were once welcomed, but porn site operators will apparently have to take their business elsewhere.
Ask yourself: where do you think this is going? Do you really think your home country will be more free and more prosperous in five years? If not, it’s time to come up with a Plan B...
California is an interesting place. Probably something like California never existed before. A barren state with no substantial natural resources, with cities constructed mostly directly over major fault lines, no water, the highest per capita immigrant population of any US state, and of course, also the state with the highest population per capita of lawyers. "Land of fruits and nuts." or "La La Land" according to the LA Times:
"...the ladder that has supported the move to record high U.S. corporate profit margins is beginning to snap. It may be a long way down."
Explaining the catalysts that move the "market" overnight has become so farcical it is practically an exercise in futility and absurdism.
Economist Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, believes 2015 will be another "lost year" for the economy. And he predicts the Federal Reserve will indeed start to raise rates later this year, surprising the market and taking the wind of out asset prices. He recommends building cash and waiting to see how the coming storm - which he calls the "greatest margin call in history" - plays out...
"The outlook for Chinese demand, in contrast to optimistic forecasts of producers, is skewed heavily to the downside," BNP says, in a new note warning of further deflationary pressures and protracted weakness in iron ore prices. For those who still think a "hard landing" can still be avoided, look no further for evidence to the contrary.
Many have forecast the creation of a new monetary system by which governments and banks gain total control over all monetary transactions. On the surface of it, this may seem an impossible goal, as it would be so all-encompassing and would eliminate economic freedom entirely. Surely, it would not be tolerated. However, we believe that it’s not only relatively easy to create, but it will be sold in such a way that the public will see it as an absolute panacea to their economic woes. Only those who are far-sighted will understand its level of destruction in advance of its implementation.
If one compares the history of the Chinese and US housing bubbles, one observes that it was when US housing had dropped by about 6% following their all time highs in November 2005, that the US entered a recession. This is precisely where China is now: a 6.1% drop following the all time high peak in January of 2014. If the last US recession is any indication, the Chinese economy is now contracting! So much for hopes of 7% GDP growth this year.
The entire global financial system resembles a colossal spiral of debt. Just about all economic activity involves the flow of credit in some way, and so the only way to have “economic growth” is to introduce even more debt into the system. Unfortunately, any system based on debt is going to break down eventually, and there are signs that it is starting to happen once again.
The science of economics has taken a decidedly wrong turn sometime in the 1930s. In the field of monetary science specifically, sober analysis has given way to broad-based support of central economic planning, with both policy makers and their advisors seemingly trying to trump each other with ever more lunatic proposals.