With the Dow Jones industrial average near its record high, slightly more than half of Americans (52%) say they currently have money in the stock market, matching the lowest ownership rate in Gallup's 19-year trend. And the worst news for Yellen: "although Americans in all income groups are less likely to have stock investments now than before the Great Recession, middle-class Americans have been the most likely to flee the market"
- World stocks gain along with oil, clock ticks down to ECB (Reuters)
- Draghi Expected to Defend ECB in Face of German Criticism (WSJ)
- Trump, Cruz, Kasich seek to win over Republican leaders at party meeting (Reuters)
- Donald Trump Plans to Adopt More-Traditional Campaign Tactics (WSJ)
- Japan, Not Germany, Leads World in Negative-Yield Bonds (BBG)
Donald Trump 2.0 made his official debut Tuesday night following his sweeping victory in New York reestablishing him as the man to beat in the Republican presidential race. That version of Trump was markedly more disciplined, gentler and more appealing than the version of Trump we've seen for much of the last year. And, that fact should scare the hell out of establishment Republicans who believed that their efforts to keep Trump from the 1,237 delegates he needs to formally capture the GOP nomination was beginning to catch on.
Overnight a historic event took place when China, the world's top gold consumer, launched a yuan-denominated gold benchmark on Tuesday as had been previewed here previously in what Reuters dubbed "an ambitious step to exert more control over the pricing of the metal and boost its influence in the global bullion market."
When the going gets tough, the rich get going first... and the rest should pay attention.
The economy’s capital structure remains imbalanced as a result of the enormous amount of monetary pumping since 2008 (total TMS-2 growth since then: approx. 128%). There is a limit to this though, even if it cannot be quantified. What can be stated though is that the greater the boom, the greater the eventual bust usually is. There are now more and more indications that a decisive inflection point may be quite near.
- Early Warning Signs of Recession Flash Faintly in U.S. Jobs Data (BBG)
- Who Needs Buybacks? One S&P 500 Variant Just Rallied to a Record (BBG)
- The unpredictable new voice of Saudi oil (FT)
- Saudi's Other Warning Makes Oil Traders Sweat After Doha Failure (BBG)
- U.S. oil investors rush for protection at $35 as Doha talks collapse (Reuters)
- Trump candidacy: Where some fear to tread others see a path to victory (Reuters)
"People work in order to convert their time into a unit of account,” he said. “We call that money, and it’s an invention that allows us to store time.”
“The problem that we face now is that there is simply too much time that’s been saved. Another way of saying it is that there’s too much capital in the world, in too few hands.”
Moments ago, IBM reported revenue of $18.7 billion, which may have been a beat to sharply lowered expectations of $18.3 billion, but was nonetheless the worst quarter in IBM history going back all the way to Q1 2002, the lowest quarterly revenue in 14 years. But it was the bottom line where the company went truly "full retard"...
Hillary Clinton recently blasted the hidden financial dealings exposed in the Panama Papers, but she and her husband have multiple connections with people who have used the besieged law firm Mossack Fonseca to establish offshore entities.
Having already exposed the fakeness of China's most recent trade data (and implicitly its GDP data), we were not entirely stunned by the fact that, as Bloomberg's Tom Orlik reports, China’s growth rates for quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year GDP for the past year don’t match.
"Our “Japanification” theme argues for big, fat, volatile trading ranges being the norm. The rallies (Japan rallied +20% every year during the 1990s (Chart 8) and the fades are always driven by Policy (panic & complacency), Profits (troughs & peaks in PMI’s) & Positioning (fear & greed). As bulls begin to dominate, confidence in the macro improves & the Fed starts to talk-up prospect of rate hikes, we would use Q2 to add to volatility exposure." - BofA
Relentless deterioration meets stunning overcapacity.
$13,903,107,629,266. Can the nation afford this much debt? This much we have learned about debt after 40 years of writing and study: It is better not to incur it. Once it is incurred, it is better to pay it off. America, we have a problem.
“If you don’t own gold, you know neither history nor economics.” – Ray Dalio, Founder Bridgewater Associates