Real estate

The Global Commodity Cycle: Where Are We Now

"In commodity cycles, demand leads and supply reacts, with a lag. And the factor which facilitates this process is price. 2017 looks to be providing another classic example of this simple commodity rule."

The Illusion Of Declining Debt To Income Ratios

Despite the mainstream media’s belief that surging asset prices, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary interventions, has provided a boost to the overall economy, it has really been anything but.. the story remains the same – “if you are wealthy – life is good.”

Mark Hanson: Housing Bubble 2.0 - The End Is Nigh?

"If, the past 8-years of a Fed in Armageddon-mode created the 'everything bubble', what will shifting monetary policy into reverse do to said asset price levels? ..Remember, a 'house-price recovery' and 'housing market recovery' are two vastly different things."

Key Events In The Coming Quiet Week: Brexit, Housing And Lots Of Fed Speakers

In an otherwise relatively quiet week in which the only upcoming US data is housing, current account and jobless claims, UK politics will again draw attention, one year (on Friday) after the Brexit referendum and as noted earlier, Brexit negotiations begin on Monday, despite lingering political uncertainty in the UK. Also no less than 9 FOMC members are scheduled to speak this week.

Frontrunning: June 19

  • UK PM May says attack on Muslims near mosque is 'sickening' (Reuters)
  • Macron Under Pressure to Deliver as French Turnout Plummets (BBG)
  • Market Volatility Has Vanished Around the World (WSJ)
  • Real victory will be in 5 years, says Macron camp after election win (Reuters)
  • Brexit Talks Kick Off in Brussels as May Urged to Soften Stance (BBG)

China's "Ghost Collateral" Arrives In Canada, "Heralding A Crisis"

"We all know that the ghost collateral is a huge deal, and we all know that the shadow banking and other Chinese influence in Vancouver is profound. The issue is that the ghost collateral ends up re-hypothecated and laundered. So by the time it shows up in Vancouver, it will likely just look like a rich Chinese cash buyer with a suitcase of money.“

When Will The Fed Tighten Enough To Cause The Next Recession?

In trying to answer "When will the Fed tighten enough to cause the next recession", Deutsche Bank says that while current market expectations suggest the next recession (or at least the next Fed tightening that would be forceful enough to cause a recession) could still be many years away, the bank "thinks this is too optimistic." Here's why