Real estate

Frontrunning: June 22

  • Mood brightens after latest Greek offer to creditors (Reuters)
  • ECB's Nowotny - Greek banks have funding extension for today (Reuters)
  • Any Greece deal must match party manifesto, minister says (Reuters)
  • Greece says now up to lenders to move on an agreement (Reuters)
  • Greece sends wrong documents to monitors... Again (FT)
  • U.S. won't let Russia 'drag us back to the past': Pentagon chief (Reuters)
  • Belgium unblocks part of Russian diplomatic missions’ frozen accounts (Tass)
  • Fed Scoop Heralded Era of Closed Doors for $100,000 Newsletters (BBG)

Is This Complacency, Idiocy, Or Both?

How can it be implied that the markets are too fragile to deal with an unexpected raise of interest rates to (gasp) 1/4 of 1%, if all the “data” we were told (or sold) has been showing signs of all this “improvement?” The question still remains: How does any Ivory Tower prognosticator, or Wall Street talking head, square all these circles? Simple – they don’t. They just act as if it they didn’t or won’t happen. Or, just continue to act as if we’re too dumb to answer. This is complacency, idiocy, and more – all turned up to 11!

Credit Market Warning

There are large signs of stress now present in the credit markets. You might not know it from today's multi-generationally low interest rates, but other key measures such as liquidity and volatility are flashing worrying signs. While some may hope that rising yields are signaling a return to more rapid economic growth, or at least that the fear of outright deflation has lessened, the more likely explanation is that something is wrong and it’s about to get... wronger.

The Lesson In China: Don't Go Bubble In the First Place

What the stock bubble shows is the unthinkable degree of difficulty in trying to actually manage letting air out of any bubble in an orderly fashion. It may already be too late, as growth declines still further month by month, but stock prices go even more insane, drawing in more and more “retail” accounts and regular Chinese. In other words, the reform idea may have been impossible from the start; that the PBOC went ahead anyway, and still continues despite all that has happened, more than suggests that they now recognize the most dangerous existence is asset bubbles, far and away more important than even “necessary” growth.

All The World's Investable Assets In Context

We decided to do a little research to find out the size of different investable asset classes globally, to try to get some color on the money flows in this extraordinary period. The data is from various dates from 2013 to 2014, but the differences don’t matter much.

Angry Russia Will "Respond In Kind" To Europe's Asset Seizures

On the heels of Thursday's move by Belgium, France, and Austria to freeze Russian state assets in connection with the disputed Yukos ECHR ruling, Moscow vows to retailiate in kind, while the chairman of the former Yukos holding company pushes the US to join Europe in enforcing the arbitration court's decision. 

Fact Or Fiction: Donald Trump Presidential Candidate Profile

Billionaire real estate mogul and television personality Donald Trump announced Tuesday plans to run in the 2016 presidential election, marking the first time he will formally seek the Republican nomination after floating the idea in several previous election cycles. Here are some key facts to know about Trump...

Frontrunning: June 16

  • Greek PM sticks to hard line as contagion hits euro zone bonds (Reuters)
  • Greek Deadlock Has Leader Hoping for Miracle to Avoid Default (BBG)
  • Greek Showdown Puts Merkel's Teflon Legacy at Risk (BBG)
  • Greek standoff saps Europe, dollar swings ahead of Fed (Reuters)
  • Allianz Increased Holdings of Greek Debt as Its Largest Investor (BBG)
  • French Bonds Infected as Greek Crisis Swells Euro-Region Spreads (BBG)
  • Statoil to cut 1,500 more jobs as savings drive intensifies (FT)
  • UnitedHealth, Anthem Seek to Buy Smaller Rivals (WSJ)
  • Five Million Reasons Why China Could Go to War (BBG)

Deutsche Bank Exodus Continues As Real Estate Chief Leaves For Blackstone

On the heels of resignations from co-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen, Deutsche Bank loses another high profile employee as the bank's global head of commercial real estate departs for Blackstone. Jonathan Pollack's departure comes just one month after the bank's head of structured finance Elad Shraga left to start his own fund and seems to lend credence to the idea that Deutsche Bank may be in trouble.  

Bilderberg 2015 – Where Criminals Mingle With Politicians

"This is what happens when you let money run riot and you allow industries to police themselves. This is what happens when the rich and powerful are endlessly granted special privileges, celebrated and permitted or even encouraged to place themselves above the law. And this is what happens when ordinary people feel bored by and excluded from politics, largely because their voices matter so little..."

The "Global Macro Investor" - An Interview With Raoul Pal

"We have a problem with this, and that is central bank hubris. They now think that they are omnipotent, because, essentially the government has said we are going to pass over all control of the economy to the central banks, they say to everybody else including financial market participants that “you don’t know, you don’t understand, we have our models and they are right”. And that kind of hubristic approach is when you sow the seeds of your own destruction."

Why Do We Celebrate Rising Home Prices?

In recent years, home price indices have seemed to proliferate. Measuring home prices has taken on an urgency beyond the real estate industry because for many, home price growth has become something of an indicator of the economy as a whole. If home prices are going up, it is assumed, “the economy” must be doing well. Indeed, we are encouraged to relax when home prices are increasing or holding steady, and we’re supposed to become concerned if home prices are going down. This is a rather odd way of looking at the price of a basic necessity.

Greenspan Dashes Recovery Hopes: "Housing Stagnation Is Here To Stay"

Ten years ago this week, Alan Greenspan made his infamous comment about signs of 'froth' in the housing market. A decade later, CNNMoney's Cristina Alesci sat down with the Former Federal Reserve Chairman and got his perspective on real estate. It's stuck in a rut, or as he puts it, "we haven't come out of the bottom [of the housing collapse], we are in a secular stagnation."