• Marc To Market
    11/22/2014 - 10:16
    Contrary to the death of the dollar chatter, the US currency continues to appreciate.  Here's why there is still punch left in the bowl.  
  • Tim Knight from...
    11/21/2014 - 21:06
    As you can see by this view of the NQ, this massively bullish news has not, as of yet, represented any kind of sea-change in the markets. Before the day was even out (again, in some, not all markets...

Real estate

Tyler Durden's picture

The One Trillion Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb





Imminently, Zero Hedge will present some of its recently percolating theories about some oddly convenient coincidences we have witnessed in the commercial real estate market. However, for now I focus on some additional facts about why the unprecedented economic deterioration and the resulting epic drop in commercial real estate values could result in over $1 trillion in upcoming headaches for financial institutions, investors and the administration.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Cohen & Steers Heart Commercial Real Estate





An amusing article in the WSJ today discusses the newfound sweeping hope across the REIT space. The hope, by the way, has to do with the recent stock offerings by SPG, AMB and KIM (the last one Zero Hedge had quite a few things to say about). WSJ provides a good assessment of the situation:

Vacancies are still zooming up and property values are still crashing down.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Cohen & Steers Heart Commercial Real Estate





An amusing article in the WSJ today discusses the newfound sweeping hope across the REIT space. The hope, by the way, has to do with the recent stock offerings by SPG, AMB and KIM (the last one Zero Hedge had quite a few things to say about). WSJ provides a good assessment of the situation:

Vacancies are still zooming up and property values are still crashing down.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Some More Observations On Real Estate, Employment and Car Sales





As the world relishes in its self-reinforcing view that all is somehow well, there are some points that deserve to be pointed out:

 
Tyler Durden's picture

47% More Pain For NY Real Estate?





Interesting report out of Deutsche Bank over the weekend, presenting hypothetical upcoming current-to-trough declines in real estate prices, based on DB's proprietary Home Price Appreciation (HPA) model outlook for the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). While the full report should be read in its entirety, a good summary is the chart below which demonstrates (in the right most column) the worst-case modelled downside to home prices in the 20 worst U.S. MSAs.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The "Real" Facts Behind Commercial Real Estate





Unlike the administration, which deals in hope and promises, Zero Hedge believes that facts and empirical evidence tend to have a more justifiable reflection in securities prices. As such, I present a snapshot of the factual deterioration across the entire securitized CRE landscape, and the sad conclusion that with each passing day the inherent cash generating capability of these "assets" is becoming worse and worse. I hope to make this into a recurring piece every week.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Commercial Real Estate Marking: CMBS Relative Value





At first opportunity (but not for a few days) I will write an extended post on the cash flow dynamics of both CRE whole loans and CMBS. There seems to be too much confusion on the topic, which is at the heart of the "is the price fair/is it not fair" argument for the toxic asset bid/offer disconnect in the PPIP. Below is a good chart I tracked down which shows the most recent prices on sub-AAA CMBX tranches, and how this flows through in terms of spreads, loss rates, loss timings, average deal losses and a market-to-base case (flat loss assumption) ratio.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Commercial Real Estate Marking: CMBS Relative Value





At first opportunity (but not for a few days) I will write an extended post on the cash flow dynamics of both CRE whole loans and CMBS. There seems to be too much confusion on the topic, which is at the heart of the "is the price fair/is it not fair" argument for the toxic asset bid/offer disconnect in the PPIP. Below is a good chart I tracked down which shows the most recent prices on sub-AAA CMBX tranches, and how this flows through in terms of spreads, loss rates, loss timings, average deal losses and a market-to-base case (flat loss assumption) ratio.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Moody's Commercial Real Estate Index Posts Largest Ever Decline in January





The Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index posted a 5.5% decline from December, representing the largest drop in its history. Price are now down 19.1% from a year ago and 15.4% lower than two years ago.

New York, March 19, 2009 -- Commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) decreased in January by 5.5% from the previous month. The January decline was the largest in the history of the index, which has followed commercial real estate prices since December 2000.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Manhattan Real Estate To Drop 50%?





Presented without comment

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Another Major Leg Down In Real Estate Coming Up?





Thanks to FT Alphaville for catching these bad boy charts. The article discusses the formation of serial bubbles in housing and equities in most countries except in Japan, where the bubbles were synchronized. And based on a historical ratio of house prices to stock market levels, either real estate still has a long way to drop or markets are due for a significant rally; as to which is more likely, reference any day's headlines.

 
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