Real estate

Will Gold Crash With The Dow... Or Soar?

In recent months, this prognostication has been gaining traction that a second, more severe crash - one that reflected the level of debt - is inevitable. There are two primary camps amongst economists with regard to the economic direction that a crash will generate: inflationists and deflationists. The argument goes back and forth, yet there seems to be the misconception that one must be either an inflationist or deflationist. This is not at all the case.

10 Reasons Why Reserve Currency Status Is An "Exorbitant Burden"

This may be excessively optimistic on my part, but there seems to be a slow change in the way the world thinks about reserve currencies. For a long time it was widely accepted that reserve currency status granted the provider of the currency substantial economic benefits. For much of my career I pretty much accepted the consensus, but as one starts to think more seriously about the components of the balance of payments, it is clear Keynes wad right in his call for a hybrid currency when he recognized that once the reserve currency was no longer constrained by gold convertibility, the world needed an alternative way to prevent destabilizing imbalances from developing. On the heels of Treasury Economist Kenneth Austin and former-Obama chief economist Jared Bernstein discussing the end of the USD as a reserve currency, Michael Pettis summarizes 10 reasons the USD's reserve status has become an 'exorbitant burden'.

US Vacancy Rate Rises For First Time Since 2009 In Wake Of Apartment Building Construction Surge

Due to the trend of renting as opposed to buying by average citizens, there has been an enormous construction boom of apartment complexes across the U.S. However, as Bloomberg reports, the U.S. apartment-vacancy rate rose for the first time in almost five years. Rents are still rising, but for how long? Unless incomes rise substantially, it will be difficult to continue this trend, which is why so many of the financial players have already started bailing on the “buy-to-rent” strategy. And today's zero wage gains does not help support the positivity.

Frontrunning: October 2

  • As we warned in May 2013... Gross Exposes $42 Trillion Bond Market’s Key Flaw in Exit (BBG).... hint: no liquidity
  • WTI Crude Slips Below $90 for First Time in 17 Months (BBG)
  • Traders Thank Fed for Once-in-Decade Surge in Profit (BBG)
  • Islamic State committing 'staggering' crimes in Iraq: U.N. report (Reuters)
  • Philippine Islamist militants threaten to behead German on October 17 (Reuters)
  • Draghi’s Buying Spree for the ECB Might Start Modestly (BBG)
  • Russian Officials Say No Plans for Capital Controls (WSJ)
  • Indians Join the Wave of Investors in Condos and Homes in the U.S. (NYT)
  • Leader of Mexican drugs cartel captured (FT)
  • Dallas Ebola patient vomited outside apartment on way to hospital (Reuters)

Frontrunning: October 1

  • European Bond Yields Go Negative (WSJ)
  • Traveler from Liberia is first Ebola patient diagnosed in U.S. (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Protesters Step up Pressure on Leung to Quit (BBG)
  • JPMorgan to face U.S. class action in $10 billion MBS case (Reuters)
  • Turkey mulls military action against Islamic State (Reuters)
  • Singapore Home Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Quarter on Curbs (BBG)
  • Italy's Economic Woes Highlight Dilemma for European Central Bank (WSJ)
  • Advanced iOS virus targeting Hong Kong protestors (Reuters)
  • Fed Scrutiny of Leveraged Loans Grows Along With Bubble Concern (BBG)
  •  Mosquito Virus That Walloped Caribbean Spreads in U.S. (BBG)

The US Is Now 50% More Unequal Than Ancient Rome (And That Includes Slaves)

As we previously noted, only the highest income earners have seen any gains in compensation since the crisis began around 2007 to the current 'recovery' tops. It is perhaps not entirely surprising then that, the total income controlled by the Top 1% is drastically above that of the slave-included times of Ancient Rome and as high as the peak in the roaring 20s. "The greatest irony is that the President is railing against inequality as one of the most important problems of the day, despite the fact that his policies are squeezing the middle class and causing the Fed – with the President’s encouragement – to engage in the radical monetary policy, which is exacerbating inequality. This simple truth cannot be repeated often enough."

The Goldman Tapes And Why The Delusion Of Macro-Prudential Regulation Means The Next Crash Is Nigh

There is nothing like the release of secret tape recordings to clarify an inconclusive debate. Actually, what the tapes really show is that the Fed’s latest policy contraption - macro-prudential regulation through a financial stability committee - is just a useless exercise in CYA. Macro-pru is an impossible delusion that should not be taken seriously be sensible adults. It is not, as Janet Yellen insists, a supplementary tool to contain and remediate the unintended consequence - that is, excessive financial speculation - of the Fed’s primary drive to achieve full employment and fill the GDP bathtub to the very brim of its potential. Instead,  rampant speculation, excessive leverage, phony liquidity and massive financial instability are the only real result of current Fed policy.

China Housing Bubble Bursts: Q3 Land Sales Crater 50%

China may be doing everything in its power to divert attention from the simple fact that its housing bubble, the largest in the world in terms of both assets comprising it as well as divergence from fair value, has burst. But while there is no clear threshold of what constitutes a bursting bubble when it comes to housing, the latest data out of Soufun, China's largest real-estate website, which said that land sales have dropped a massive 22% to 1.7 trillion Yuan in 2014 so far, is likely as clear an indication as any that Beijing is about to panic. And if that was not enough Bloomberg adds that land sales in 300 cites followed by Soufun fell almost 50% Y/Y to 415.9 billion yuan in 3Q, while residential land sales declined more than 50% to 265.3b yuan in 3Q.