Real estate

"We have a problem with this, and that is central bank hubris. They now think that they are omnipotent, because, essentially the government has said we are going to pass over all control of the economy to the central banks, they say to everybody else including financial market participants that “you don’t know, you don’t understand, we have our models and they are right”. And that kind of hubristic approach is when you sow the seeds of your own destruction."

In recent years, home price indices have seemed to proliferate. Measuring home prices has taken on an urgency beyond the real estate industry because for many, home price growth has become something of an indicator of the economy as a whole. If home prices are going up, it is assumed, “the economy” must be doing well. Indeed, we are encouraged to relax when home prices are increasing or holding steady, and we’re supposed to become concerned if home prices are going down. This is a rather odd way of looking at the price of a basic necessity.

Is Deustche Bank the next Lehman is likely the wrong question to be asking. Is Lehman the template for European banking may be more to the point. Take it from the guy that called the Lehman debacle 5 months before the fact.

Ten years ago this week, Alan Greenspan made his infamous comment about signs of 'froth' in the housing market. A decade later, CNNMoney's Cristina Alesci sat down with the Former Federal Reserve Chairman and got his perspective on real estate. It's stuck in a rut, or as he puts it, "we haven't come out of the bottom [of the housing collapse], we are in a secular stagnation."

The similarities between today and the 1929 era suggest a massive crash could be appraoching.

Producer Prices Final Demand rose 0.5% MoM - the biggest monthly rise since September 2012. With the gasoline index up a stunning 17% (but but but) 80% of the broad-based advance is attributable to prices for final demand energy - which increased 5.9%. In contrast, Final Demand PPI YoY Ex Food & Energy dropped to +0.6% - the lowest on record in the short time series.

Once you funnel everyone into risk assets and then mask the risk to generate complacency, you guarantee a bidless market when risk reappears.

Unsold new condos spike to all-time record. Industry in denial.

Because centrally-planning the market and the double seasonally-adjusted economy was not enough, the Obama administration is now set to create a wealth-adjusted community utopia. According to The Hill, the administration is moving forward with regulations designed to help diversify America’s wealthier neighborhoods, such as building affordable housing in more affluent areas. The name of Obama's latest proposal to have the government centrally-plan your community? The Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule. A name that only the person who penned the US Freedom Act could have come up with.

“I’ve never seen a customer base or an economy like this..."

Moments ago the Fed's latest Flow of Funds report confirmed what the Philly Fed noted recently (and what blogger and Citadel trader Ben Bernanke vehemently denies): that the Fed keeps making America's uber rich ever richer, when in the first quarter thanks mostly to yet another $1.1 trilion increase in the value of financial assets (read stock market), the asset holdings of US households (or at least a very small subsection of them) rose by $1.6 trillion to a record $99 trillion.

• Pope urges Putin to make 'sincere, great effort' for Ukraine peace (Reuters)
• Merkel Tells Tsipras It’s Time to Back Talk With Policy Action (BBG)
• 'Greek tragedy' needs happy ending now: EU's Moscovici (Reuters)
• Vulture Funds Circle Greece Targeting Europe’s Best Trading Bet (BBG)
• Germany against third aid program for Greece under any circumstances, says daily (Reuters)
• Biggest OPEC Members Pump Record Oil With Rally in Jeopardy (BBG)
• Greek ruling reversing pension cuts will cost state 1 to 1.5 bln euros (Kathimerini)
• China’s Former Security Chief Zhou Yongkang Sentenced to Life in Prison (WSJ)
• MSCI backs itself into corner on China share inclusion (Reuters)

It has been a mostly quiet overnight session with Europe solidly green on another bout of Greek hope even as Bundesbank's Weidmann warned that Greek insolvency risks are rising and Greece reporting that its unemployment rose once more from 26.1% to 26.6% in Q1, in which we got two more rate cuts by New Zealand (which sent the Kiwi crashing the most since 2011) and South Korea (the Won initially dipped only to rebound) but China stole the stage with its latest report on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed investment all of which showed a modest bounce from multi-year lows suggesting the PBOC's attempts to shock the economy into growth may be starting to work (which is bad news for the market).

The current bubbles are so large and fragile that air is already coming out with rates still locked at zero. However, unlike prior bubbles that pricked in response to Fed rate hikes, the current bubble may be the first to burst without a pin. It appears the Fed fears this and will do everything it can to avoid any possible stress. That is why Fed officials will talk about raising rates, but keep coming up with excuses why they can’t. Larry Lindsey will be right that the markets will eventually force the Fed to raise rates even more abruptly if it waits too long to raise them on its own. But he grossly underestimates the magnitude of the rise and the severity of the crisis when that happens. It won’t just be the end of a raging party, but the beginning of the worst economic hangover this nation has yet experienced.

Everyone likes to buy things at a discount, right?