Real estate

"In a worst case scenario, the real economy effects of the oil sector and the earnings slowdown hit the frothy commercial real estate and REIT sector, which in turn begin the widening of the contagion begun by energy high yield. Combine this with the sudden stop to lower quality energy credits I believe is inevitable and you likely have stall speed – or even recession. And that’s where subprime auto ABS, student loan securitization and US munis come into the picture for the US domestic economy. Those markets get hit in recession."

Moments ago, the House of Representatives just passed the $1.15 trillion spending bill that includes a $680 billion package of tax-break extensions, in a 316 to 113 vote, and will now move to the Senate, where its passage is likewise assured and will be signed by the president over the next few days. For those wondering what are the main components of the spending bill, here is a quick summary.

"The interest of firms in both borrowing and spending continues to decline, suggesting it’s past time the ‘stimulus mafia’ rethinks its Pavlovian responses. Reform or bust."

For a brief few minutes, overnight saw exactly the reaction that central planners had hoped for when The Bank Of Japan announced it would buy 'moar' stock ETFs and extend bond duration buying ad nauseum. However, within just 15 minutes something happened that we haven't seen since the world embarked on this experimental nightmare. Despite the front-ran promises to buy Japanese stocks "whatever it takes" traders sold... and sold large.

Following the latest BOJ statement, the market found itself wrongfooted assuming the BOJ was actually launching another episode of easing, sending the USDJPY soaring, until suddenly the realization swept the market that not only was the incremental action not really material, but even Kuroda spoke shortly after the announcement, confirming that "today's decision wasn't additional easing." The result was one of the biggest FX headfakes in recent days, perhaps on par with that from December 4 when EUR shorts were crushed, as the biggest carry pair first soared then tumbled and since the Yen correlation drives so many risk assets, also pulled down not only Japanese stocks but US equity futures.

While New York City and London are already well known as top destinations for shady, foreign-money laundering oligarchs who often attain untold riches by thieving from their own people, the Los Angeles area has likewise morphed into a criminal real estate hub.

China did everything it could to prevent a collapse and it still happened.  How do you think other countries will do?

“I think this interest rate hike is too late. This economy is closer to falling over than it is to going up. I think there’s a high probability that we’re looking at a recession in the next twelve months."

We have reached the apogee of history’s greatest credit inflation. Now we’re hurtling into a prolonged worldwide deflation. You can already see this deflation in the plunge of oil, iron ore, copper and other commodity prices. We are in uncharted waters after nearly 20 years of madcap money printing by the Fed and other central banks. The world’s central banks are finally out of dry powder. They no longer have the means to inflate the global credit and financial bubble. That’s why today’s FOMC meeting is the most crucial inflection point since 1929.

The day has come when the boxed-in Fed has no choice: with the vast majority of the market expecting a rate hike, Yellen has to deliver or suffer a crushing confidence blow like no other. And deliver she will, with expectations that said hike will be "as dovish as possible." For now however, the market is desperate to convince itself that just as more easing and more QE were bullish for the market, so rate hikes are just as bullish. Recall from late 2013: "tapering is not tightening," then the 2015 version of this refrain is "tightening is not tightening."

"As many as 60,000 homes bought off-plan in new developments in areas such as Nine Elms are scheduled for completion by the end of 2017 and many will be put up for sale immediately because of the growing disillusion with London... Of these, we believe between 50 to 60 per cent have been sold off-plan to international buyers. Therefore, it is likely that up to 30,000 properties could be returning to the market in the coming two years.”

• Global stocks rise but oil, Fed keep investors nervous (Reuters)
• Janet Yellen: An orthodox economist for unorthodox times (Reuters)
• House Democrats Said to Be Open to Lifting Oil Export Ban (BBG)
• Don't Count on an Oil Rally If U.S. Crude Export Ban Is Lifted (BBG)
• Germany welcomes 34-state Islamic military alliance against terrorism (Reuters)
• U.S. soldier Bergdahl may face life sentence in court-martial over desertion (Reuters)

The start of the Fed's most eagerly awaited two-day policy meeting in years has finally arrived with the market expecting Yellen to announce the first 25 bps rate hike in 9 years tomorrow with nearly 80% probability, and so far US equity futures are enjoying a last minute relief rally, while emerging market stocks rose for the first day in ten after the longest losing run since June. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index has also rebounded from a five-day losing streak, the worst in over four months.

Tennessee Senator Bob Corker may have forgotten to disclose a few things. Like millions in hedge fund investments. And millions in real estate investments. And millions in "other" investments. He's "extremely disappointed" in someone, although it wasn't immediately clear if it was himself.