Real estate

Miami condo price appreciation has flatlined for the first time in at least six years as a strong dollar weighs on foreign demand. But don't worry, "this is a different market. You're not going to have a bubble burst". 

After a quiet Asian session, where not even the latest Chinese CPI miss was enough to push the SHCOMP to new multi-year highs, all eyes were on Europe where a few hours ago the European Commission announced it had received not one but two new proposals from Greece with the Greek government adding that it considers proposals submitted last week as remain basis for political negotiations. However, barely had Europe received the Greek addenda when it nein'ed all over them, with BBG citing an international official directly involved in talks saying that the "Greek government's revised proposal to unlock bailout funds is vague rehash of earlier plans, not considered credible."

"I'm making a good salary and I'm doing all these things that I'm supposed to be doing. But you're just not able to save enough to get to that number. Housing is so inflated."

New rules at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in conjunction with lower FHA premiums helped to drive down payments on single family homes to their lowest level since Q1 2012 in the first quarter.

What government can do for you...

"In the United States, it took 18 quarters (4.5 years) before fixed business investment regained its pre-recession peak, in chain-volume terms. That compares with an average of just five quarters before business investment recovered to its peak level prior to the onset of previous post-War recessions; previously, it had never taken longer than three years for that milestone to be attained."

The Fed sees no risks of bubble trouble because they are looking at it all from the 2008 perspective. That is completely wrong-headed; if there is a “next one” it will have nothing to do with subprime mortgages, or even mortgages and real estate. Everyone seems to simply assume that the subprime problem ended in 2008, if only by crash. That is true but only of mortgages. Deleveraging is myth as debt has still expanded, and greatly, just not in the same exact places. There are certainly auto and student loans that have exploded exponentially, especially in subprime categories, but if there is another credit bubble now, the third, it is undoubtedly corporate debt.

Memo to the Fed and its media tool Hilsenrath: we're not here to further enrich your already obscenely rich banker and corporate cronies by buying overpriced goods and services we don't need. Our job is not to spend every cent we earn on interest to banks and mostly-garbage corporate goods and services. Our job is to limit the amount we squander on interest and needless spending. Our job is to build the financial security of our families by saving capital and prudently investing it in assets we control (as opposed to letting Wall Street control our assets parked in equity and bond funds).

"How long the bubble can continue to inflate is the key question – but necessarily unanswerable. Inherently irrational, bubbles usually last longer than expected, [but they] ultimately burst... they expand continuously, then pop."

"Central bank distortions have forced investors into positions they would not have held otherwise, and forced them to be the ‘same way round’ to a much greater extent than previously... unless fundamentals move so as to justify current valuations, when central banks move towards the exit, investors will too.... The way out may not prove so easy; indeed, we are not sure there is any way out at all."

One (perhaps the only) bright spot in the past few year’s gold market has been Chinese and Indian demand for the metal. But physical bullion is only part of the story, and may not be the biggest one going forward. Speculation has been circulating for years that China’s miners, flush with cash from selling their low-cost output to the government, would soon start buying up the world’s in-ground gold reserves... and now, finally, the China-buying-all-the-gold-mines scenario has begun to solidify.

This same process has likely begun for the markets again… but this time it will be global in nature as the bubble in question is not just in stocks but in bonds, commodities, real estate… indeed in the very Central Banks themselves.

• China stocks fall, led by ChiNext, on margin tightening; Hong Kong down too (Reuters)
• Bond market sell-off rumbles on, stocks feel the pinch (Reuters)
• Bond Rout Wipes Out 2015 Gains as Traders Stay Glued to Screens (BBG)
• Greek Groundhog Day Continues With Talks Failing to Break Impasse (BBG)
• Greece and Its Creditors Agree on Some Measures in Bailout Talks (WSJ)
• 'Bellingcat Report Doesn't Prove Anything': Expert Criticizes Allegations of Russian MH17 Manipulation (Spiegel)
• GE Said to Hire Banks to Start Sale on $20 Billion Assets (BBG)
• Alibaba Pictures plans $1.6bn share sale (FT)
• How Companies Justify Big Pay Raises for CEOs (BBG)

Recently, we outlined Hillary Clinton’s keynote speech requirements which include the customary $225,000 plus a “chartered roundtrip private jet”, $1,000 for a stenographer, and a host of other “incidentals.” But the Clintons actually come cheap compared to a certain former Fed chair. Here’s a look at speaking engagement rates for some well-known former and current US officials.

"Only if the economy is powered by the marginal borrower who will no longer borrow after a 0.25% hike, does it make sense to believe a hike will derail the economy.  Comparisons to 1937, where a hike pushed the US into recession, are incomparable and groundless.  On the other hand, maybe the FOMC is worried that the ‘no free lunch’ concept makes them suspicious of the possibility of a meaningfully deleterious market reaction which could have a negative impact on the broader economy.  However, under this logic, delaying a hike would only exacerbate such a response."