Real estate

• UK economy shows 0.3% growth (FT)
• Texas University Fund Sold $375 Million in Gold Bars (BBG)
• Spain Jobless Rate Breaches 27% on Recession Woes (BBG)
• Letta calls for easing of austerity policies (FT)
• Italy Led by Letta Brings Berlusconi Back as Winner (BBG)
• Fed Debate Moves From Tapering to Extending Bond Buying (BBG)
• South Korea wants talks with North on shuttered industrial zone (Reuters)
• Republicans advance bill to prepare for debt ceiling fight (Reuters)
• Republicans claim White House failed to warn on severity of cuts (FT)
• Xi meets former US heavyweights (China Daily)
• Next BoE chief Carney says clear framework key to policy success (Reuters)
• Chinese roll out red carpet for Hollande (FT)

The political class set in motion the eventual obliteration of our economic system with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Placing the fate of the American people in the hands of a powerful cabal of unaccountable greedy wealthy elitist bankers was destined to lead to poverty for the many, riches for the connected crony capitalists, debasement of the currency, endless war, and ultimately the decline and fall of an empire. The 100 year downward spiral began gradually but has picked up steam in the last sixteen years, as the exponential growth model, built upon ever increasing levels of debt and an ever increasing supply of cheap oil, has proven to be unsustainable and unstable. Those in power are frantically using every tool at their disposal to convince Boobus Americanus they have everything under control and the system is operating normally. Nothing could be further from the truth.

All in all, the markets are falling for the same ploy they’ve fallen for dozens of times in the last few months: more political promises from those who cannot and will not do what is needed to solve the region’s problems.

If there was any debate about the global economic contraction, driven largely due to pundits confusing manipulated stock market levitation with this anachronistic thing called the "economy" and fundamentals for the fourth year in a row, all doubts were removed after this morning's manufacturing PMI data out of China, which as reported previously was a big disappointment (sending the Composite firmly into the red for the year down 2.57% to 2184.5) only to be followed by just as disappointing manufacturing and services PMI data out of Germany, which tumbled from 49 and 50.9 to 47.9 and 49.2, respectively, missing estimates of 49.and 51. The composite German PMI tumbled to a 6-month low of 48.8 as a result, meaning the European economic deterioration is just getting started, and at the worst possible time for Merkel several months ahead of her reelection campaign. The end result was a miss in the blended Eurozone Mfg PMI, which dropped from 46.8 to 46.5, even as the less relevant Services component eaked out a small gain from 46.4 to 46.6, on the back of a dead cat bounce in French economic indicators. Bottom line: a contraction in both European manufacturing and services for the 15th consecutive month. Some "recovery."

Socialism is a dirty word in many parts of the US, but as the FT reports, the government has turned its mortgage market into a giant nationalised enterprise on a par with China’s Red Army with over 90% of mortgages subsidized by the state and aided by so-called "progressive" or "redistributive" policies. In the UK, the government have also become entwined with the housing market, albeit in different ways. Rates have also been slashed close to zero; tens of thousands are buying homes arm-in-arm with the state under 'shared equity schemes'; and one-third of all mortgages come from the two state-controlled banks (Lloyds and RBS); very reminiscent of supposedly communist China, where most banks are majority-owned by the state with small public floats. The question remains how can they avoid another crash if and when they withdraw support from the market? "It’s broadly accepted nowadays that China still lives under the banner of ‘communism’ despite capitalist markets playing an increasing role in society. In Britain and America – at least where the housing market is concerned – the reverse process seems to be taking place."

Pity the wise money manager these days. Our juiced-up financial markets, force-fed liquidity by the Fed the other major world central banks, are pushing asset prices far beyond what the fundamentals merit. If you see this reckless central planning behavior for what it is - a deluded attempt to avoid reality for as long as possible - your options are limited if you take your fiduciary duty to your clients seriously. Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital has a difficult time seeing other assets to own besides the precious metals. There are confidence bubbles in stocks, bonds and the fiat currencies that will break - not may, but will -  and when they do, he sees no safe harbor for investment capital save gold.

The trajectory of self-employment from 1970 to the mid-2000s tracked general economic growth, which was weak in the 1970s but began a 30-year boom in the early 1980s. Things changed in the recession, as the self-employed ranks have lost 1.6 million from the peak in 2007. The number of self-employed has fallen to early 1980s levels. Small business is the incubator of employment. As it declines, so too do opportunities for first jobs, second chances and economic independence.

Since 2009, Jim Chanos has been warning of the real estate bubble in China and he is as concerned as ever given the new government's actions (and likely inactions). The presentation (from last week’s 2013 Wine Country Conference) below lays out his thesis in gruesome detail and is unreasonably factual. With capital gains tax impositons and curbs on real estate, he is still not optimistic that the new government will enact any of the major reforms that are required - and will be unable to without blowing it all. Simply put (as Yahoo notes): China is adding the equivalent of $2.5 trillion of new debt annually; 30% of China’s GDP growth depends on new credit creation - half outside of normal banking circles; China’s excessive credit creation is invested in the wrong sectors; and every new dollar of debt created is yielding less growth in GDP. "There are myriad ways... to be short the Chinese property bubble," he adds, noting that, "the new [government]... has no incentive to change the system."

Many investors are now buying yield with little regard to the price that they're paying. It's a dangerous game that's not going to end well.

• Police Searching for 19-Year-Old Boston Bombing Suspect (BBG)
• Mayhem Erupts in Boston After MIT Campus Officer Slain (BBG)
• Elvis Impersonator Accused of Ricin Letters Sowing Fear (BBG)
• Blackstone Pulls Out of Dell Bid on Rapidly Falling PC Sales (BBG)
• Before Texas plant exploded: What did regulators know? (Reuters)
• Aso Says Japan Policy Unopposed at G-20 Meeting as Yen Falls (BBG)
• Bipartisan pair target $2.5tn US savings (FT)
• Plan for new Cyprus vote casts uncertainty on bailout (Cyprus Mail)
• Ireland picks through debtors’ lifestyles (FT)

It's time to go in for the kill. Buy as much physical Gold as you can.

We all know that double digit inflation in HPA is not a good thing for the long term recovery of the housing market. 

Did anyone seriously believe the global economy was expanding so robustly that corporate profits would loft ever higher? Based on what data? Laughably bogus data from China, where warehouses are bulging with stockpiles of aluminum and copper, and a diminishing-return housing/credit bubble is the only "engine of growth"? Or was it the equally bogus unemployment rate in the U.S. that inspired such confidence? Did money managers really not notice that most of those new jobs are part-time, and that the rate is only low because millions of people have statistically been disappeared from the workforce by central planners? Wages, private-sector employment and labor's share of the economy have all declined: no wonder the risk-on recovery is rolling over.

• Investigators hunt for clues in marathon bombing (Reuters)
• Investigators scour video, photos for Boston Marathon bomb clues (Reuters)
• 'Act of Terror' Kills at Least Three, Injures About 140 as Bombs Wreak Carnage on Marathon Crowd (WSJ)
• Brent Crude Below $100 (WSJ)
• Slower China Growth Signals Days of Miracles Are Waning (WSJ)
• Central Banks at Ease Limit Risk Political Backlash (BBG)
• Merkel plans to quit midterm, says author (FT)
• Monte Paschi Prosecutors Seize $2.3 Billion of Nomura Assets (Businessweek)
• Treasuries back on investors’ buy lists (FT)
• J.C. Penney Said to Seek Ways to Separate Real Estate for Cash (BBG)
• Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown (Reuters)
• Putin Calls for Stimulus Plan After Recession Alarm (BBG)
• TIPS in Longest Selloff Since ’08 as U.S. Bancorp Cuts (BBG)

While China's trifecta miss of GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production all coming lower than expected was likely a factor in the overnight rout of gold, the initial burst of selling started well before the Chinese data hit the tape, or as soon as Japan opened for trading with forced financial institution selling to prefund cash for any and all future JGB VaR-driven margin calls. It was all downhill from there, literally, with overnight selling of gold punctured by brief burst of targeted stop hunting, sending the metal down $116 per ounce, as spot touches $1385 after trading nearly at $1500 yesterday and down $200 in 4 days. End result, whether due to a re-collapsing global economy, margin calls, fears forced Cyprus gold selling will be imposed on all other insolvent European countries, coordinated central bank slams, hedge fund positioning, long unwinds, liquidations, fears about future demand, or whatever the usual selling suspects are, is that gold tumbles an unprecedented 7.8% on 230,000 contracts in one day, and well over 10% in two days, pushing the yellow metal 14 day RSI band to 18, meaning it is now most oversold since 1999. In brief, it is an all out panic, with Goldman still telling clients to sell, i.e., buying every shiny ounce all the way down (not to mention India, where accordingto UBS Friday demand was double the average).