Following November's collapse in existing home sales (-10.5% - worst since July 2010), December saw home sales soar 14.7% (the biggest MoM jump ever). Don't get too excited as this is simply the new (know before you owe) mortgage rules delayed sales coming back. All in all it was a wash over the 2 months and NAR is careful to warn not to expect 2016 to be as good as 2015 for sales.
- Global Stocks Face Fresh Losses (WSJ)
- European stocks lick wounds after mauling, oil steady (Reuters)
- Hang Seng Index Sinks Below Net Assets for First Time Since 1998 (BBG)
- U.S. Hedge Funds Boast Lower Losses as Markets Tumble Further (NYT)
- Deutsche Bank Drops as Investment Bank Revenue Concerns Mount (BBG)
- Islamic State Uses Syria’s Biggest Dam as Refuge and Potential Weapon (WSJ)
Unfortunately, what we are facing now is a predicament, rather than a problem. There is quite likely no good solution. This is a worry. During the last 18 months we have read incessantly that low oil prices, for example, $30 per barrel oil, will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as we see it...
The robo-machines are now having a grand old time hazing the August lows at 1870 on the S&P, and may succeed in ginning up another dead-cat bounce or two. But this market is going down for the count owing to a perfect storm.
To most people, a bull market is good. Share prices are connected to business productivity, right? In a free market, yes. However we don’t have a free market. We have monetary policy, how our central planners stimulate us into a wealth effect.
When Correlation Is Causation - The Most Important Chart In The World If You're A Realtor In London Or NYCSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 21:15 -0500
If ever there was any doubts about the narrative of freedom-seeking China capital outflows driving the irrationally exuberant prices of homes in some of the world's largest cities to record highs, the following two charts will extinguish them entirely. As China continues to strengthen (as quietly as possible) its capital controls to slow the leak of money from the devaluing currency nation, and US authorities clamp-down on the anonymity of cash-only transactions, realtors in NYC, Miami, and London better hope that correlation is not causation.
As with houses, it doesn’t matter how big or luxurious or complex you make new cars. When the credit bubble bursts, auto prices will not “always go up.”
Call it whatever you like,blame whoever you want...but Houston,we have a problem....
Last night's Chinese data deluge can only be classified with one word: bad. So if bad news was again bad news as many claim, both commodities (read oil), and US equity futures should be tumbling right now... but just the opposite is happening and in fact both Brent and WTI have already jumped over $30 this morning. This happens even as the IEA said this morning that global oil markets could “drown in oversupply,” And yet this morning both commodities, global stocks and futures soaring? Simple: the following Bloomberg headline summarizes it: "Brent Rallies More Than $1 as China GDP Spurs Stimulus Bets," and where Brent goes, so goes risk, and the S&P.
“I think ageing demographics is a bigger issue in China than people think. And the problems it creates should be become evident as early as 2016.” – Stan Druckenmiller, 2013
While prices in China's Tier 1 cities are soaring, let's put the country's vacant housing problem in context: China has some 13 million homes vacant - enough to house the families of several small countries . Actually, it's worse: Zhu Min, deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund, recently admitted that China’s real estate bubble now manifests itself in 10. 7 billion square feet (1 billion square meters) of unused housing! Min added that many housing stock go unused, and the market may see a significant price correction in the future, wiping out vast household wealth.
The world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.
As a potential worst case scenario, we use the simple sum of probabilities from 2001- 2002 and the current debt stock as an example of what could happen during a protracted downturn. If this comes to fruition, we estimate fallen angel volumes over 2 years could spike to $413bn, with $117bn of 10+ fallen angel paper (again crashing into a 10+ HY market that is only $48bn in size). This is an ugly spectre that the high-grade markets would need to face in future years.