The festering wound involving Italian banks in general and Italy's third largest bank Monte Paschi, just got worse yet again, as the bank which suddenly everyone is focused on extends yesterday’s 14% drop, and is halted in Milan trading after falling 7%, once again dragging down European bank stocks with it, and this time US equity futures are starting to notice.
In the summer of 2007, two inconsequential Bear Stearns property-related funds were gated and then liquidated, exposing the reality of the US housing bubble and catalyzing the collapse of the financial system. Fast forward eight years later when the UK's Standard Life has been forced to stop retail investors selling out of one of the UK’s largest property funds for at least 28 days after rapid cash outflows, due to fears over falling real estate values: "the risk is this creates a vicious circle, and prompts more investors to dump property."
"I had a fascinating out of body experience meeting with one of the world's top central bankers in a private meeting about three years ago. it was one of those moments where I...it was one of those epiphanies almost, where it's something you and I knew, but hearing him say it, call it one of the four top central bankers in the world, it was a jarring experience for me..." - Kyle Bass
So for the third time this century, a business cycle contraction will come without warning from the Fed. Once again the Kool-Aid drinking perma-bulls, day traders and robo-machines will be bloodied as they stampede for the exit ramps. But it is the main street homegamers, who have been lured back into the casino for the third time this century, that will suffer devastating losses yet another time. Indeed, if there were even a modicum of honesty left in the Eccles Building it would be warning about the weakening trends in the US economy, not cheerleading about fleeting and superficial signs of improvement.
Despite the alphabet soup of bail-out facilities provided by the ECB, people still do not trust the system. In our view, the TARGET2 chart is the best way to assess trust in central banks and as it clearly shows, the narrative is failing. It seems impossible for Draghi to reestablish monetary confidence.
“If Brexit is used as an excuse, the central banks will print more money, QE4 in the U.S. is on the way and the depreciation in the purchasing power of currencies will continue,” warned a vociferous Marc Faber said in a Bloomberg TV interview today from Hong Kong. "In that situation, you want to own some gold..."
The largest U.S. banks got permission from regulators to return profits to investors, but the U.S. banking units of Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander were held back again as the Federal Reserve released the final results of its 2016 "stress tests."
As companies evaluate whether to depart the UK for France, they may want to consider scenes such as the following showing relentless local protests, now stretching for months, against the much maligned anti-labor reform.
In 2006 it was exactly twelve months after delinquency rates bottomed that the recession began. If the same period applies, we are due for a recession. In the first quarter of the Great Recession in 2008, delinquency rates were only 1.45%. We are already above that level. The fact that increasing loan delinquency coincides with mountains of debt maturing in 2016 and 2017 is a topic for next time.
China CITIC Bank Corp Ltd has launched a Canadian lawsuit to try to seize the assets of a Chinese citizen the bank claims took out a multimillion-dollar loan in China then fled to Canada. The defendant, Shibiao Yan, owns three multimillion-dollar properties in a Vancouver suburb and lives in a $3-million Vancouver home owned by his wife, according to court documents.