Real Interest Rates

One Striking Chart Shows Why, According to MS, The Next Global Recession Begins In China

here is the chart revealing what may be the most unsustainable trend in China, one that is even more dramatic than China relentless debt growth: accounted for 26% of global annual capex in 2015, compared with 9% in 2006 and 5% in 2000. Hence, as China continues to invest with low return expectations, that this will continue to weigh on the global returns on capital employed.

Dispelling The Norwegian Housing Myth

Recently,an economist from DnB (Norway’s largest bank) stated that Norway is not in a housing bubble although conditions resemble one and prices can still fall. The article states that a socialist country with lots of benefits can handle higher debt levels than a capitalist one. It fails to acknowledge the impact of the eroding oil foundation on the long term economy.

Toward Stagflation - The Real End Game For Central Banks

Norway is heading straight into stagflation and at some point Norges Bank will be forced to tighten monetary policy into a weakening economy. The world should take note, because the real end game for central banks will come when they are constrained by rising inflation in a weakening economy. We all know what happened after the 1970s stagflation; and hiking rates to 20 per cent in an overleveraged world is a lot harder than it was back then.

Why MainStreet Isn't Buying Obama's Economic Story

Last night, President Obama took a victory lap for his economic achievements while in office. With the 2016 Presidential Election fast approaching, this was one of the final chances the President will have to try and divert attention away from Hillary’s “trustworthiness” problem following continued revelations surrounding Benghazi, email scandals and the Clinton Foundation which is now under investigation by the IRS. The question is whether the majority of the voting public will agree with the President’s message? Let’s take a look at some charts...

Deutsche Bank Loves Helicopter Money: Why "Big Inflation Is Coming... But Will First Require A Crisis"

Helicopter policies are not advocated in ‘a normal world’. They are however almost inevitable in the next recession. "Japan will be the flag bearer of fiscal stimulus.” Which will be sufficient to breath some inflationary spirit into the system. “But this is all febrile and can get over-turned by the slightest change in wind direction,” he said, tentative. “This will be the little inflation before the big helicopter-driven inflation.” But that will first require a crisis.

Larry Summers Wants To Give You A Free Lunch

According to Summers, with this low growth and low interest context, government debt levels no longer matter. In other words, federal governments have free reign to massively increase deficit spending and run-up federal debts, because, on balance, the fiscal stimulus will pay for itself. But who are we to question Summers’ unique qualifications - for example, unlike Summers, we’ve never lost $1.8 billion of other people’s money.

Morgan Stanley Asks If This Is Just A "1937 Redux"

"Premature tightening of macro policies means risks of a relapse. In 1936, the Fed doubled the reserve requirements for banks and the Treasury began to sterilise gold inflows, slowing the growth of high-powered money. Fiscal policy was tightened, with the fiscal deficit narrowing significantly from 5.1% of GDP in 1936 to 0.1% in 1938. The premature and sharp pace of tightening of policies led to a double-dip in the economy, resulting in a relapse into recession and deflation in 1938."

Head Of India Central Bank Unexpectedly Announces Intention To Leave

The worst case outcome for many Indian investors came true this morning when head of the RBI said he would return to academia when his term ends on Sept. 4.  Rajan was generous in his parting words, saying government reforms, together with steps by regulators will lead to greater job growth, prosperity for our people. Rajan said that “I will, of course, always be available to serve my country when needed" and added that “I am confident my successor will take us to new heights with your help."

QE: The Good, Bad And Ugly (Or, Why War Is Coming)

"The ugly part comes in when thinking about how to exit QE, if at all. Unfortunately I can't help but think of how the Great Depression ended: it was a boost of fiscal spending, all right: the financing of a war... note that increasing military expenditures in the name of national defense may be more easily passed through the legislature in countries without strong majorities than infrastructure spending. Add to that a rise in populist politicians throughout the world, and we have a mix that suggests to me history may well repeat to those unwilling to learn from it."

Fitch Cuts Japan's Credit Outlook To Negative

Following Abe's decision to delay the April 2017 increase in the consumption tax, warnings about Japan's rating (recall that Japan's consolidated debt/GDP ratio is the highest in the world at 400%) were inevitable, and moments ago Fitch was the first to come out and while "affirming" Japan's AA rating, it was the first major agency to cut its outlook from Stable to Negative. Expect the other two big agencies to do the same, followed inevitably by downgrades.