Real Interest Rates

David Rosenberg Calls For A Multi-Trillion, "Helicopter Money" Stimulus Package

David Rosenberg has a modest proposal in mind for the US economy: he says only a massive, multi-trillion stimulus package which includes helicopter money attached to a $2 trillion perpetual bond, massive infrastructure spending and measures to tackle the $1 trillion student debt load, has any hope of kickstarting the US economy.

Recession Now... Or Depression Later

Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.

GoldCore's picture

Gold forecasting is a mugs game at the best of times but given the uncertain geo-political situation, the fragile banking system and the very strong fundamentals for gold, it is hard to argue with Barnabas Gan of OCBC  or BMI. Gold should be meaningfully higher in the coming months and into 2017 as investors diversify into gold. Or rather we are likely to see dollars, euros, pounds and other fiat currencies continue to be devalued versus gold.

Gold Money's picture

Recent comments of FOMC members have sent real rates higher and gold lower, something we have witnessed several times this year. Since the beginning of the year, the FED has tried to appear hawkish while the actual policy outlook has in fact become ever more dovish. At this point, the FEDs own guidance for interest rates suggest there is very little downside for gold, but there are many more potential drivers to the upside

Peak Debt Complacency: Carmen "Different This Time" Reinhart Urges Debt Restructuring

[The establishment] needs no reminder of the historical record, but it bears noting that more than a dozen advanced economies received debt relief in one form or another during the depression of the 1930s. The approach to unwinding current debts is likely to vary considerably across countries, but it is time to place greater emphasis on debt restructuring (which comes with a menu of options) than on accumulating more debt.

Gold Money's picture

Using our proprietary real rate, energy proof of value- model as a guide, we find that the USD gold price has less downside risk from current levels than commonly perceived, with skewed upside risk. For gold to fall back below $1,100/toz again, the market would need a somewhat paradoxical environment of collapsing energy prices yet rising inflation, with the FED hiking interest rates

Russia Cuts Interest Rates Whilst Maintaining Tough Monetary Policy

At a time when Russia has suffered a recession any other G20 Central Bank or government finding itself in such a position would surely focus on ending the recession, not on further reducing inflation from what is by Russian standards an already historically low level. Russia however is different.

"The Financial Crisis Has Morphed Into A Growth Crisis" - Rogoff Warns "Cash Is Not Forever, It's A Curse"

"Big bills are a curse... understand this: Cash is not forever... in fifty years there will be no cash... it’s one very important step towards enabling central banks to have much more effective tools in fighting a financial crisis and in particular to use negative interest rates in an effective way... people who are older need to think about having a larger share of stocks than the traditional wisdom..."

"It Ain't Working" - Axel Merk Lashes Out At The Fed's Failed Inflationary Focus

It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world, but have they? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution. At its core, their indoctrinated focus on inflation may well do more harm than good, with potentially perilous implications for investors.

Negative Rates & The War On Cash, Part 1: "There Is Nowhere To Go But Down"

As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion. Credit bubbles are dynamic - they must grow continually or implode - hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence. As the peak of a credit bubble is reached, all these necessary factors first become problematic and then cease to be available at all. Past a certain point, there are hard limits to financial expansions, and the global economy is set to hit one imminently.