• williambanzai7
    01/25/2015 - 14:27
    A Banzai7 salute to the Greeks for signaling the bankster $hitheads of the world (and their Eurocrat enablers) to shove it where the sun don't shine.
  • Sprott Money
    01/26/2015 - 08:30
    Making New Year “predictions” used to be an automatic, beginning-of-the-year exercise, to the point where readers generally expected such pieces from the pundits they follow. However, it is an...

Real Interest Rates

Tyler Durden's picture

Russell Napier: "Central Banks Are Now Powerless To Prevent A Steep Rise In Real Rates"





Central bank policy is creating liquidity.  Wrong --- the growth in broad money is slowing across the world.
Central bank policy is allowing a frictionless de-gearing.
Wrong --- debt to GDP levels of almost every country in the world are rising.
Central bank policy is creating inflation.   Wrong --- inflation in most jurisdictions is now back to, or below, the levels recorded in late 2009.
Central bank policy is fixing key exchange rates and securing growth.  Wrong --- in numerous jurisdictions this exchange rate intervention is slowing the growth in liquidity and thus the growth in the economy.
Central bank policy is keeping real interest rates low and stimulating demand. Wrong --- the decline in inflation from peak levels in 2011 means that real rates of interest are rising.
Central bank policy is driving up asset prices and creating a positive wealth impact which is bolstering consumption. Wrong --- savings rates have not declined materially.
Central bank policy is creating greater financial stability. Wrong --- whatever positives impact central banks are having on bank capital etc they have failed to prevent the biggest emerging market debt boom in history.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

It Begins: IRS Launches International Data Exchange Service





Yesterday, the IRS announced the International Data Exchange Service. If you’ve not heard of it, it’s is an outgrowth of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which requires every single bank in the world to get in bed with IRS to share information about customers. We’ve said this over and over, FATCA is probably the dumbest law in the history of the United States. And we don’t say that lightly, because there’s definitely stiff competition. Like any other bankrupt government, the US government has taken to intimidating its own citizens and the entire world in an attempt to make ends meet. But the fact is that tax revenues actually haven’t improved at all. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that the rest of the world is one day going to create its own alternative system. One that would no longer rely on the US dollar.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Empirical Proof Of The Giant Con





For those of you not familiar with the giant con, it is the idea that our economy is growing when, in fact, it hasn’t had growth in decades with the exception of the late 1990?s.  The giant con is entirely a function of debt. The cost to the working class of falsify economic growth is beyond redemption.  In the end, the path is set and there is no escaping from the debt trap in which we snagged ourselves.  And so we bide our time until the weight of exponentially increasing debt collapses in on us.  But then we rebuild.

 
GoldCore's picture

OUTLOOK 2015 – Uncertainty, Volatility, Possible Reset – DIVERSIFY





  • Global Debt Crisis II – Total Global Debt to GDP Ratio Over 300% - Risk of Bail-Ins in 2015 and Beyond - Currency and Gold Wars - $1 Quadrillion “Weapons of Mass Destruction” Derivatives - Cold War II and New World Order as China and Russia Flex Geopolitical Muscles - Enter The Dragon – Paradigm Shift of China Gold Demand - Forecast 2015: None. Forecast 2020: Gold $2,500/oz and Silver $150/oz
 
Tyler Durden's picture

"U.S. And Them" - Russell Napier Asks If America Can Decouple From The Rest Of The World





Can the US economy ignore or even benefit from the winds of deflation blowing from offshore? With a current CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted PE) in excess of 27X, the US market is clearly answering this question in the affirmative. It is worth pausing to ponder just how much this optimism for a US de-coupling has already been reflected in prices. The Solid Ground was very bullish on global equities from 1Q 2009 to 1Q 2011, but then turned bearish, believing that QE was insufficient to prevent deflation. The failure of QE to generate ever higher inflation is now a matter of record, but very clearly US equities cheered this failure and the need for continual QE from 2011 to 2014.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Will 2015 Be A Year Of Economic Disaster? 11 Perspectives





Will 2015 be a year of financial crashes, economic chaos and the start of the next great worldwide depression? Over the past couple of years, we have all watched as global financial bubbles have gotten larger and larger. Despite predictions that they could burst at any time, they have just continued to expand. But just like we witnessed in 2001 and 2008, all financial bubbles come to an end at some point, and when they do implode the pain can be extreme.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Sayonara Global Economy





The surreal nature of this world as we enter 2015 feels like being trapped in a Fellini movie. The .1% party like it’s 1999, central bankers not only don’t take away the punch bowl – they spike it with 200% grain alcohol, the purveyors of propaganda in the mainstream media encourage the party to reach Caligula orgy levels, the captured political class and their government apparatchiks propagate manipulated and massaged economic data to convince the masses their standard of living isn’t really deteriorating, and the entire façade is supposedly validated by all-time highs in the stock market. It’s nothing but mass delusion perpetuated by the issuance of prodigious amounts of debt by central bankers around the globe. But now, the year of consequences may have finally arrived.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Greater Abomination: Washington's Lies About TARP's "Success" Are Worse Than The Original Bailouts, Part I





The mainstream economics narrative is so far down the monetary rabbit hole that the blinding clarity of the chart below has no chance whatsoever of seeing the light of day. That’s because it dramatizes the real truth regarding all the Fed gibberish about “accommodation” and “stimulus”. Namely, that what lies beneath its “extraordinary measures”, such as ZIRP, QE, wealth effects and the rest of the litany, is a central banking regime that systematically destroy savers. Period. TARP wasn’t “repaid” with a profit. It was simply perpetuated and  morphed into a new form of destructive state subvention and malinvestment.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Biggest Economic Story Going Into 2015 Is Not Oil





Once again oil is not even the biggest story today. It’s plenty big enough by itself to bring down large swaths of the economy, but in the background there’s an even bigger tale a-waiting. Not entirely unconnected, but by no means the exact same story either. It’s like them tsunami waves as they come rolling in. It’s exactly like that. That is, in the wake of the oil tsunami, which is a long way away from having finished washing down our shores, there’s the demise of emerging markets. And we're not talking Putin, he’ll be fine, as he showed again yesterday in his big press-op. It’s the other, smaller, emerging countries that will blow up in spectacular fashion, and then spread their mayhem around. And make no mistake: to be a contender for bigger story than oil going into 2015, you have to be major league large. This one is.

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold +14.3%, 12.3%, 5.8% and 0.4% in JPY, EUR, GBP and USD 2014 YTD





In terms of the cycle of market emotions, gold is as close to ‘depression’ as we have seen (see chart). Yet, so far in 2014, gold is 14.3%, 12.3%, 5.8% and 0.4% higher in japanese yen, euros, sterling and dollars respectively (see chart).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Astonishing Rise of Central Bank Fear





Anyone who looks at central bankers speak can sense the fear behind their absurd bravado, and the dishonesty of their public confidence.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

S&P 500 Hits Goldman Sachs Year-End 2,050 Target





It's been quite a year for David Kostin and his flip-flopping Goldman equity strategy team. From a modest 1,900 year-end target in January (reached in May) to warning stocks are 30-45% overvalued in January to projecting the S&P 500 will reach 2,050 by year-end in July...Mission Accomplished today, 6 weeks early. Now what?

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!