Reality

The FT Goes Full Fearmonger: Electing Trump "Would Unravel The World"

"Sometimes history jumps. Think of the first world war, the Bolshevik revolution, the Great Depression, the election of Adolf Hitler, the second world war,... We may be on the brink of an event as transformative as many of these: the election of Donald Trump as US president. This would mark the end of a US-led west as the central force in global affairs. The result would not be a new order. It would be perilous disorder."

Trump, Trade, & Taxes

The best way to restart investment (and thus employment opportunities) is to make the U.S. a magnet for productive capital rather than a graveyard of tax-avoidance strategies.

The QE Premium

"...to be blunt, given the aforementioned fundamental risks and the poor risk/return skew, history is clearly not in favor of those who remain long equities banking on the Fed to continue to levitate valuations and prices with limited tools and faulty narratives."

The 2016 Presidential Election Comes Down To Only One Thing...

As we inch closer and closer to November 8th, one thing has become increasingly clear: This election will be viewed by voters as a referendum on the status quo itself. While it’ll definitely be a referendum on Obama specifically, it’s much bigger than that. It’ll be about whether the American people want to continue along the path we’ve been on for decades, or if they’re willing to try something entirely different.

What Do We Know?

"These linear thinkers can’t understand why their playbook of lies, misinformation, pointless social justice issues and a myriad of other inane distractions aren’t working this time. They fail to acknowledge that history is cyclical and we’ve entered the phase when generational cohorts are aligned for dramatic sweeping change. The data is there for all to see, but those benefiting from the current perverted paradigm will not be swept aside without a bloody fight."

Saudi Arabia Cancels Public Sector Bonuses, Slashes Salaries

Saudi Arabia's government has decided to curb to some financial perks for public sector employees, according to a live broadcast of the cabinet's weekly meeting. "The cabinet has decided to stop and cancel some bonuses and financial benefits," read a line of text on Ekhbariya TV, as a minister read to assembled ministers and royals, including King Salman, a list of cuts to be made in various grades in the civil service.

US Bank Stocks Slide After New Fed Tests Suggest Need For "Significant Increase In Capital"

Two weeks after European and Japanese banks threatened mutiny against new banking capital requirements set forth by the Basel Committee, Bloomberg reports that Wall Street would have to come up with billions of dollars in additional capital in a proposed revamp of the Fed’s stress tests. US bank stocks are sliding on the news, falling back to the reality of lower and flatter yield curves as well as systemic threats from Deutsche Bank.

Germany Goes There: "You Can't Compare Deutsche Bank To Lehman"

"When it's important, you have to lie," is the now well-known mantra from European leaders when the crisis hit. So when a German politician proclaims "you can’t compare Deutsche Bank with Lehman. The bank is in a position to get out of this situation on its own," it's time to panic. Just a week after the 8th anniversary of Lehman's collapse, the multi-trillion dollar derivative book of Deutsche Bank dwarfs that of Lehman... and the credit markets are starting to wake up again.

Citi Slams "Increasingly Bizarre" Presidential Race As Morgan Stanley Unveils Trump "Contingency Plans"

Citi said that its "base case is for a Clinton victory and mostly continuity in policies, which would leave U.S. and global growth expectations relatively unchanged,” while describing the U.S. contest as “increasingly bizarre.” Bizarre or not, earlier this morning Morgan Stanley, whose base case is still a Clinton victory has presented several "contingency planning" scenarios in case Trump does win.

Frontrunning: September 26

  • Stocks Drop on Bank, Commodity Company Woes; Turkish Lira Falls (BBG)
  • Clinton and Trump to square off in highly anticipated debate showdown (Reuters)
  • Profit Slump for S&P 500 Heads for a Sixth Straight Quarter  (WSJ)
  • Oil rises as OPEC meets, volatility hits post-Doha high (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Slumps to Fresh Record Low on Capital Concerns (BBG)
  • Police Videos Fail to Quiet Protests in Charlotte (WSJ)

Bond Risk Crashes To 2-Year Lows As VIX Shorts Fold

After 10 straight weeks of increasingly bullish speculative positioning ('longer' stock futures and 'shorter' VIX futures), the last 2 weeks have seen short VIX bets plunge at the fastest rate since pre-Brexit and the Aug 2015 crash. At the same time as this surge to hedging, the day since The Fed's utterly farcical fold have seen bond volatility crash to its lowest in two years.