This week the S&P 500 surged to a new record high of 2164 this week while the 10-year US Treasury yield touched an all-time low of 1.37%. As a result Goldman, and especially its clients, are stumped. As chief equity strategist David Kostin admits, they have one burning question. As Kostin puts it, they "are struggling to reconcile how extreme valuations of both assets can co-exist."
Unleash the revisionist history. The missing 28 pages from the 9/11 report begin as follows: "While in the United States, some of the September 11 hijackers were in contact with, and received support from, individuals who may be connected to the Saudi Government..."
From shock to solidarity and from aggressive reality checks to passive toothless solutions, the world's leaders responded in many different ways to the horrific attack last night in Nice, France. However, it is one seasoned veteran trader's response that is perhaps most poignant. However, it is French PM Valls who has stirred up the most angst by exclaiming "Ignore the hysteria, Europe can live with terror."
With half of 2016 in the history books, corporate bond defaults just hit the milestone "century" mark, or 100, last week, rising by 50% from the number of bankruptcies at this time last year and the highest level since the US emerged from recession in 2009. What is most troubling is that at the current run-rate, with half of 2016 still to come, the global debt default total is on pace to surpass 2009 for the all time corporate bankruptcy record.
This is what the elites fear most:the possibility that despite all their efforts of surveillance and manipulation, individuals and groups may one day be struck by an unpredictable urge to pick up a rifle and put the the globalists out of everyone’s misery. No chatter, no electronic trail, no warning. This is why they are destined to lose. They can never know all the unknowns. They can never control all the free radicals. There will always be rebellion. There will always be a liberty movement.
With global rates at zero to negative, money will continue to chase U.S. Treasuries for the higher yield. This will continue to push yields lower as the global economy continues to slow. What would cause this to reverse? It would require either an economic rebound as last seen in 50’s and 60’s or a complete loss of faith in the U.S. to pay its debts such as a collapse of the Government and the onset of the “zombie apocalypse.” We no longer have the drivers of manufacturing, demographics or credit expansion for the former, so I am ready for the latter.
"This is the pain trade.... When I look at valuations and I see PE multiples north of 20…I'm not going to say that the markets are in bubble territory but it's just a little too expensive for me right now."
Following yesterday's chaotic polling data, the latest NYT/CBS poll provides a post-email-gate reality check as Hillary Clinton's 6-point lead has evaporated leaving Trump tied nationwide, leading the "reckless" former secretary of state on the economy and jobs, trade, and national security. Perhaps more worrying for the Clinton campaign is the rise in negativity with 67% of voters saying she is not honest and trustworthy.
"Adopting helicopter money in the strict sense is impossible as it's prohibited by law," said one of the officials. "If it's about the BOJ buying huge amounts of bonds and the government deploying fiscal stimulus, we're already doing that." Japan shouldn't make its central bank directly underwrite government borrowing, "or it could suffer the kind of runaway spending and inflation that followed a similar move in the 1930s."
"...central bankers seem to view elevated security valuations as “wealth.” The longer this fallacy persists, the worse the subsequent fallout will be. I have little doubt that future generations will look at the reckless arrogance of today’s central bankers no differently than we view speculators in the South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Tulip-mania. Unfortunately, there is no mechanism by which historically-informed pleas of “no, stop, don’t!” will penetrate their dogmatic conceit. Nor can we change the psychology of investors."
One glimpse at the massive variance between the last two days polls in swing states suggests something very odd is going on. Simply put, given the post-Email-gate disapproval ratings, Pro-Hillary Clinton polls simply don't make sense... "The American public is far more pissed off than even you’d like to admit. Part of the reason you refuse to admit it is that this reality is truly terrifying."
Social tensions in USA threaten to break apart the North American union in unimaginable ways. Disenfranchised and unemployed masses have organized and grown due to the internet and social media. Trump Presidency can stop it.