Reality

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Stocks Are Severely Overvalued By Almost Every Predictive Metric





The S&P 500 has only been at this level or higher a handful of times in the last 100 years. All of them have coincided with major market peaks.

 
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Final Moments Of Flight MH-17: The Russian Side Of The Story





Yesterday, we laid out extensively what the official Ukrainian case was when it came to "proof" that Russian separatists had launched the Buk missile which allegedly took down flight MH-17; we also highlighted several glaring inconsistencies and questions that still remained open after the "incriminatory" YouTube clip release. So far, any international response has been muted to this hastily prepared evidence of Russian involvement, although the day is still young. So what about the Russian side? Below we present the key arguments made by Russia to suggest that not it, but Ukraine, was responsible for taking down the Malaysian Boeing.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Commodity Contagion Leads To First Letter Of Credit Settlement Failure





At the heart of the China Commodity Financing Deals (CCFD) is the ability to leverage a letter of credit on the basis that there was some collateral somewhere that backed the risk of this rehypothecatable 'money'. Until now, the biggest concern has been "where's my copper, nickel, gold, etc..?" as the Qingdao ponzi scheme is unveiled; but, as Metal Bulletin reports, the contagion from the exposure of CCFDs ponzi has now hit Western banks. At least one western bank has stopped discount financing of copper into China after Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) applied for the right not to settle a letter of credit it issued earlier this year, as a result of the Qingdao investigations. In other words the collateral chains were just snapped...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Elizabeth Warren Torches Janet Yellen on Too-Big-To-Fail





Yellen’s acting routine is worthy of an Academy Award. In her role, she plays a caring, sweet, grandmotherly type figure all concerned about the poor and middle-class, when reality points to a career as a staunch, frontline protector of the bankster oligarchy.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Reasons We Fight The New World Order





"We would be far better served as a species if we were to turn our back on the NWO altogether and move swiftly in the opposite direction. Imagine what tomorrow would be like if there were no controllers, no statists, no despots and no philosopher kings. Imagine a tomorrow where people respect the natural-born rights of others. Imagine a tomorrow where people’s irrational fears are not allowed to inhibit other people’s freedoms. Imagine a tomorrow where interactions between citizens and government are rare or nonexistent. Imagine if we could live our days in peace, independently building our own destinies, in which our successes and failures are our own, rather than the property of the collective. It may not be a perfect world, or a utopia, but I suspect it would be a much better place than we live in today."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Israeli Tanks Are Rolling Into Gaza





Residents in the northern Gaza Strip said they could hear the sound of tanks entering from Beit Lahiya as we noted earlier and now the Army has confirmed:

*ISRAEL SENDING TANKS INTO GAZA: ARMY

As NY Times reports, the military released a statement saying the goal of the operation was to "establish a reality in which Israeli residents can live in safety and security without continuous indiscriminate terror." Judging by the images and clips below, they are deadly serious. Hamas warns, “The occupation will pay its price expensively, and Hamas is ready for confrontation.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Good News Is Bad News", BofA Says "Reduce Risky Assets" Because Jobs Are Improving So Fast





This week’s market reaction to Fed chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony – which was initially perceived as hawkish – provided another highlight of just how nervous investors have become about the risk of tighter monetary policy, post the very strong June payrolls report. As BofA warns, the current pace of jobs creation mirrors what forced the Fed’s hand in the 1994 rate hiking cycle, which led to lower stocks and wider credit spreads. Simply put, as the indicator of just how insane "markets" have becomes, rapidly improving job growth (as fallacious as it is under the surface) means BOFA thinks that hedges should be set and long positions in risky assets reduced.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

With Two Weeks Left, Argentina Starts Taking (Bondholder) Names





The Argentina default battle is in its final fortnight, with a July 30 grace period expiration looming, one which would result in a second bankruptcy in 13 years to formally be written down in the history books, and which could spoil the serene glow all global capital markets have found themselves in thanks to the central bankers' soothing words. As a result, Argentina has resorted to a last ditch strategy to ferret out the full list of holdout creditors (the hedge funds led by Elliott, Aurelius and various other known and unknown bondholders) as well as get a full list of the restructured bondholders (those who are perfectly happy to clip whatever coupon Argentina will pay them instead of seeing their payment stop altogether if and when CFK announces an official default). The logic behind the ruse: to circumvent the court and pay the restructured debtholders in the 11th hour.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Druckenmiller Warns Fed's "Market Obsession" Creates "Long-Term Risks To The Economy"





"I hope we can all agree that once in a century emergency measures are no longer necessary five years into an economic recovery," begins Stan Druckenmiller as he unleashed a torrent of uncomfortable truthiness on a crowd of Fed apologists stunned by his reality check that the Federal Reserve is putting the economy at risk by continuing its aggressive market intervention.. Blasting the counterfactual "mob", Druck slams, "To economists and Fed officials who continually cite that we are better off than we would have been without ZIRP for long I ask why is that the relevant policy time horizon? Five years after the crisis and with growing signs of economic normalization it seems to be time to let go of myopic goals." Simply put, Druckenmiller concludes, rather ominously, "I am fearful that today our obsession with what will happen to markets and the economy in the near term is causing us to misjudge the accumulation of much greater long term risks to our economy."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Meet CISA – Dianne Feinstein’s Latest Attack On Privacy, Civil Liberties And The Internet





One thing that has become crystal clear since the Edward Snowden revelations, is that much of Congress has no problem at all with unconstitutional spying. Rather, they are primarily upset it was exposed and are dead set on making sure no other whistleblower can ever do the same. Enter CISA, or The Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Try As He Might, Mario Draghi’s Magic Levers Just Won’t Create Growth





No one knows how this will play out. We all know on some level that it will not end well, but exactly how and when it will all backfire remains to be seen. We’ve already had two epic Crises in the last 15 years. By the look of things, we’re heading for a third one in the not to distant future.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Homebuilder Sentiment Surges, Beats By Most In A Year Led By "Future" Hopes





NAHB Sentiment surged 4 points to 53 - its first time above the crucial 'recovery' 50-level since January. All sub-indices were higher but the biggest gain was in "Future sales expectations" which soared to its highest since September (and consider for a moment just how 'wrong' builders were from that point). All regions rose with The West rising most (and South least). Given the massive divergence between Builder sentiment and the reality of sales and mortgage apps, it is no surprise that "hope" is what they have left.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 16





  • BRICS set up bank to counter Western hold on global finances (Reuters)
  • Fed's Yellen Hedges Her View on Rates (Hilsenrath)
  • China GDP Grows 7.5% in Second Quarter (WSJ)
  • Get More Acquainted With Your Knees as Boeing Reworks 737 (BBG)
  • Israel Warns Gazans of New Attack After Hamas Rejects Truce (WSJ)
  • Israel poised for Gaza incursions after truce collapses (Reuters)
  • China Housing Sales Fall in First Half of 2014 (WSJ)
  • IBM to offer iPads and iPhones for business users (Reuters)
  • Fed's George says strengthening economy warrants quick rate rise (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

"China Is Fixed" GDP & Industrial Production Beat As Retail Sales Miss & Home Prices Tumble





Having glimpsed the ugly reality of the under-belly of the Chinese economy last week, and the divergence between that and the government's PMI survey fallacy, it is no surprise that by the magic of excel, GDP and Industrial Production modestly beat expectations (+7.5% YoY vs 7.4% exp and +9.2% YoY vs +9.0% exp respectuvely). However, despite epic credit injections, home prices tumbled 9.2% YoY and Retail Sales missed expectations rising only 12.4% YoY. Even as it is self-evident that re-flating the next chosen bubble, or attempting to socialize losses, is not sustainable in the long-run, it is clear (given the surge in deposit creation in recent months) that China has chosen the path of short-term easy-street as opposed to the reform-based hard-street they had promised.

 
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