Reality

Deep Thoughts From Howard Marks

"When things are going well people become greedy and enthusiastic, and when times are troubled, people become fearful and reticent. That’s just the wrong thing to do. It’s important to control fear and greed... Too little skepticism and too much eagerness in an up-market – just like too much resistance and pessimism in a down-market – can be very bad for investment results."

Re-evaluating Crude Oil Speculative Positioning

"I still hate crude oil and believe the next surprise will be lower rather than higher. But a little weekend thinking has forced me to re-evaluate the true extent of the supposed extreme speculative positioning..."

The Norwegian Economy In 2017: Black Swans Hovering Overhead

Norwegians are just now starting to grapple with the effects of their “single cylinder” economy, mostly dependent on oil and gas (ca. 60% of exports). Despite optimism about $50-$70/barrel oil, American crude output is surging, on track to be the highest ever, since 1970, while cracks start to form in OPEC’s latest agreement. In addition to the oil tailspin, a flock of “black swans” have taken flight, led by one with a very orange beak.

"As Ye Sow..."

Our deranged world is a product of deranged minds...

Three Things Are About To Derail Trump's Fiscal Plan, Goldman Warns

With every passing week Goldman has been turning increasingly more pessimistic on Trump's proposed fiscal and budget plans, and it all culminated in a report released over the weekend, in which Goldman's Alec Phillips explains that over the next few months fiscal reofrm watchers will be disappointed as "three factors will make this year’s budget plans even more difficult to put together."

3 Ways Americans Are Being Deliberately Divided

When discourse becomes impossible, the checks and balances that keep our country from going too far in one direction cannot work. When dissent is met with violence, it begets more violence. America is being divided, and it simply has to be deliberate.