Monetary policy is putting the hurt on labor.
This time is not different. The excesses being built up in the markets today will eventually revert just as they have been at every other peak in market history. The only question, of which no one has the answer to, is exactly when this occurs. With this in mind, there are 10-basic investment rules that have historically kept investors out of trouble over the long term. These are not unique by any means but rather a list of investment rules that in some shape, or form, has been uttered by every great investor in history.
This is why the Greek debt crisis continues without end. The minute Greek bondholders have to take a REAL haircut, the wheels come off the EU and the $100 trillion bond bubble finally blows up.
Less than three weeks ago, when the PBOC proceeded with its latest "surprise" rate cut, we showed a chart that should scare everyone who is hoping that China will avoid a hard-landing would prefer would never have been revealed: the annual collapse in Chinese home prices is now so sharp and so widespread, that it has surpassed the housing collapse in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse." Overnight things went from bad to worse, when China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that contrary to hopes for a modest rebound, China's average new home prices fell at the fastest pace on record in February from a year earlier.
“The game is rigged, the network is bugged, the government talks double-speak, the courts are complicit and there’s nothing you can do about it.”
An epic decoupling in the cost of put protection and S&P earnings multiples may be a bad omen for stocks as Goldman suggests a "substantial market correction may be on the horizon."
Things are not going well for the Greeks. Bond yields are at post-default highs, implicitly shutting them out of the capital markets; stocks are cratering; and deposit outflows continue as the cash crunch looms. Even ex-Goldman silver-lining-finder Erik Nielsen stated this weekend that he is "throwing in the towel," on Greece, adding, as Bloomberg reports, that things have gone "plain nuts" in Athens. However, things are going great for the Germans - borrowing costs have never been lower, and the stock market is at record-er highs every day, as Draghi's money-printing fiasco has succeeded in one thing (and one thing only) dividing an already fragile 'union' into ever-greater 'haves' and ever-lesser 'have-nots'.
Currently, a new form of danger arises. The Keynesian pettifoggers at the Fed have painted themselves into an epochal corner. After 78 months of ZIRP they have no idea about how and why they got here; and now, mired deep in the lunacy of free money, they are clueless about where they are going next. There is not a chance the US economy has decoupled from the rest of the world. The great credit-driven boom was universal and fueled by out of control central banks. Now comes the bust phase, and these same money printing central bankers have no clue what to do about it.
The increasing ugliness of the ‘negotiations’ between the Greek Syriza government and the rest of the eurozone, which is ruled by the German government, needs to be halted and put in reverse. There is an urgent need for a detente, for cooler heads and for trust. And there is only one person who can act to create these things: Angela Merkel. But Merkel is nowhere to be found or seen. Merkel has been sorely lacking and missing, and if she doesn’t get her act together very quickly, she will be known as the person who let Europe slip into war, for no good reason whatsoever.
Here We Go Again: YouTube Clips Of Syrian "Chemical Attacks" Are Back - Meet The Man Behind The PropagandaSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2015 09:19 -0400
US foreign policy is becoming so easy and predictable, even Derek Zoolander can do it.
Two weeks ago, when discussing the relentless attempts to provoke, or at least greenlight another quasi war with Syria's president Assad, we wrote "one can be confident that the ISIS "campaign" will continue and get ever closer to Damascus until yet another appropriately-framed YouTube clip appears and leads to another war with Assad." Moments ago Reuters reported that "a group monitoring the Syrian civil war said on Tuesday government forces carried out a poison gas attack that killed six people in the northwest, and medics posted videos of children suffering what they said was suffocation."
When even the propagandists smirk at their own propaganda, you know Washington has reached 'peak contempt' for its citizenry...
The overall economic data has been significantly weaker than expected as of late, and it now looks like Q1-GDP will print somewhere below 2%. The strong dollar is negatively impacting corporate earnings as exports are hit, and there is early evidence that the ECB's QE program will not likely be the success that many had hoped for. As stated previously, with market momentum now waning a bit of caution in relation to portfolio exposure seems prudent. But then again, being prudent seems a bit ridiculous in a market that has been quoted as one that "can't go down." Of course, that has always been the case, just before it has.
The transparent truthlessness of the Fed’s basic premises go far to explain the chasm between official policy and reality - though it does not explain the appetite for plain lying of the supposedly informed minority cohort of the public, the deciders among us in business, politics, and media. Within th enext few months (between "patient" removal, token rate hikes, and reversals to QE4), the Fed will be completely out of cred. This will be the biggest disaster of all, since the loss of faith in august institutions will rage through every polity in the advanced economies. Nobody will believe any longer in anything they say or do, and especially the value of the papers (or digits) they denominate as money.
When lying is no longer enough to gain compliance, then the organs of security are unleashed on dissent and resistance.
There are signs that crude oil production in the US remains strong, despite the strong correction in prices recently. The American Association of Railroads (“AAR”) publishes rail traffic data for a variety of commodities in the US and Canada. The subset for petroleum and petroleum products can provide a sense of crude oil volumes being railed across North America (although it also includes refined products like gasoline, distillates, jet fuel and so on). Here’s the latest monthly data for the US.