Just four charts to consider now that The Fed has stepped away, the Shale Oil miracle has been exposed for the debt-fueled mal-investment boom that it is, cold-weather is coming, and stock market bulls are forced to face some awkward truths...
If prices fall any further (and what’s going to stop them?), it would seem that most of the entire shale edifice must of necessity crumble to the ground. And that will cause an absolute earthquake in the financial world, because someone supplied the loans the whole thing leans on. An enormous amount of investors have been chasing high yield, including many institutional investors, and they’re about to get burned something bad. We might well be looking at the development of a story much bigger than just oil.
After years of exposing, month after month, the truth about the US labor market - its conversion into a part-time (in 2010!), low-paying job market where Millennials refuse to work (as the job market reality is gruesome so instead they opt to load up on record amount of student loans) and where older Americans, instead of enjoying retirement are forced right back into the labor force leading to record numbers of workers over the age of 55 (thanks to ZIRP crushing the value of their savings and a refusing to participate in an HFT- and central-bank rigged stock market), the mainstream media, having tired of spinning the bullshit optimistic propaganda, has finally moved to the "tinfoil" side, and has done something it normally wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole. Tell the truth.
Police misconduct has a cumulative effect on a culture. We do not forget all of the oversteps of the past; we merely file them away until we finally reach a breaking point. It is important for LEOs to understand that while they may have a relative immunity to legal reparations, they are not immune to the rage of the populace and will likely find their fragile warrior personas rather inadequate when that day arrives. For the true constitutional police out there, it is time to take sides, either with good American people or with the corrupt establishment. It is impossible to serve both. The illusion of the “thin blue line” is quickly fading. The only question now is: What is going to replace it? The establishment would have you believe there are only two options: total chaos or martial law. But there has always been a third alternative they seek to suppress: the return of community defense, the resurgence of localized responsibility and the victory of personal liberty over false security.
Sometimes I wish I could just passively accept what my government monarchs and their mainstream media mouthpieces feed me on a daily basis. Why do I have to question everything I’m told? Life would be much simpler and I could concentrate on more important things like the size of Kim Kardashian’s ass... The willfully ignorant masses, dumbed down by government education, lured into obesity by corporate toxic packaged sludge disguised as food products, manipulated, controlled and molded by an unseen governing class of rich men, and kept docile through never ending corporate media propaganda, are nothing but pawns to the arrogant sociopathic pricks pulling the wires in this corporate fascist empire of debt.
As an investor, it is simply your job to step away from your "emotions" for a moment and look objectively at the market around you. Is it currently dominated by "greed" or "fear?" Your long-term returns will depend greatly not only on how you answer that question, but to manage the inherent risk. “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” - Benjamin Graham
In the last 3 days, the broad Greek stock market has cratered a stunning 20%. This is the biggest 3-day drop since 1987 and all on the back of the 'possibility' that an anti-EU party takes over. Did we just get a glimpse of the ugly reality hiding behind the veil of status-quo-maintaining central-bank-sponsored manipulation?
While none of the following analysis suggests that a market crash is imminent, it does imply that we are very late in the current market and economic cycle. A market melt up into 2015 would certainly be exciting, but should be used to sell overly priced assets to what will probably be a dwindling supply of "greater fools."
While Kyle Bass once remarked that "the brevity of financial memory is about two years," it appears for today's energy stock traders the period of goldfish-like memory is a mere two days... As the following chart suggests, the 'bounce' in XLE - the S&P Energy Sector ETF - is entirely decoupled from credit's uglier-and-uglier reality (just as it did on Tuesday, only to crash again yesterday). Trade accordingly...
So… the prices of assets are fraudulent, the value of balance sheets is fraudulent, and earnings are fraudulent. This means that stock market caps, balance sheets, and income statements are all inaccurate representations of reality.
Are much lower oil prices good news for the U.S. economy? Only if you like collapsing capital expenditures, rising unemployment and a potential financial implosion on Wall Street.
In reality, bureaucrats and politicians who produce nothing of value parasitically choke off the productive class through onerous taxation and regulation. This cannot last forever, because at some point they will have no hosts left to feed off of. Ukraine is the perfect example of this right now. In a leaked version of a new budget proposal (in Ukrainian), we are seeing the drastic extent to which bankrupt governments feed on their hosts.
The Shale Revolution may not really end up being a revolution after all. A new study in Nature finds that the estimates for shale gas production could be vastly overblown, and production could peak within the next decade.
Most readers are familiar with the fable of “The Goose That Laid The Golden Eggs”, or at very least, are familiar with the metaphor which was the moral of that fable: one should never kill a goose that lays golden eggs. Such advice seems obvious to the point of being simplistic, and yet it is wisdom which has not merely survived, but has been enshrined in the form of a fable.