Soft data momentum has been strong for some time, pulling expectations higher too. The change in global data surprises has reached levels it typically mean-reverts from. In the meantime, market volatility across all assets has declined sharply. This configuration, the opposite of that in Feb 2016, warns us against adding risk aggressively now.
War between the United States and China is not inevitable, but it is certainly possible. Indeed, as these scenarios illustrate, the underlying stress created by China’s disruptive rise creates conditions in which accidental, otherwise inconsequential events could trigger a large-scale conflict.
It is widely known that the U.S.-led NATO intervention to topple Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 resulted in a power vacuum that has allowed terror groups like ISIS to gain a foothold in the country. This week, new findings revealed another unintended consequence of “humanitarian intervention”: the growth of the human slave trade.
"Trump voters felt like they were voting for an anti-establishment candidate — and they're terrified, they're losing faith. This could be the most elaborate reality show. I'm wondering, was this all an illusion for us, using our movement so he could get in there?"
On September 7, 2016, Barclays facilitated a $100,000 trade of cheese and butter between Irish food company Ornua and the Seychelles Trading Company. This small trade will be just as revolutionary as the first email sent. Here’s why...
"Trump doesn’t want to preside over a major decline in our standard of living, but ultimately that has to happen. Because this is the consequence of all this excess consumption that went on before he was president. You know, we sacrificed our future to indulge our past. The future is now the present. We’re here, and it’s time to pay the piper."
"...these are the most dangerous times in the existence of an empire. The waning days. The downward slope. The swans that will pop up in that are definitely black; there’s no predicting those graceful beauties..."
"For a spell in Q4 2016 the US was certainly the flag bearer of the reflation trade. However, before and since it was China at the epicentre of the most significant positive growth shock for the global economy."
"Once upon a time, people yearned to be free of the misery of capitalism. How could their dreams come true? This little book proposes a different kind of communism, one that is true to its ideals and free from authoritarianism."