Reality

Tyler Durden's picture

From Small 'Grexit' Dominoes, Global Crises Grow





Greece has the potential to be the small domino that ends up toppling much larger dominoes.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Fast Would Contagion Spread If Greece Exits The Eurozone





It is very difficult for governments to control the progress of a monetary union break-up because the example of one country exiting will create a precedent in the eyes of other members of the monetary union. The transmission channel is not government bonds, nor equities, not currency markets, but banks. In the event of a Greek exit from the euro, the loss in the real value of Greek bank deposits would encourage bank depositors in other countries to withdraw their funds. 

The process can be very rapid indeed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Political Masters Of Parallel Universes





Much as we may dislike the fact, the results from quantum physics are unequivocal: parallel universes do exist. Oddly enough, such quantum effects are quite normal to observe within the political space. Here the physical objects involved are far too large to give rise to the parallel universes of quantum physics, but the narratives they give rise to are not. This is because the narratives are a matter of perception, and there can be historical periods, such as the present one, when the peephole through which the political establishment and the mainstream media allow us to see the world becomes so tiny that it becomes a toss-up as to whether or not any given photon will manage to find its way through it.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fourth Turning: The Shadow Of Crisis Has Not Passed - Part 1





The inability of the linear thinking ruling class to acknowledge the seriousness of our current circumstances and the implications of the era of depression and violence the country is about to experience can be witnessed on a daily basis by listening to mainstream media talking heads or politicians of all stripes who bloviate about economic improvement and progress just ahead. Could there be a better example of myopia, delusion and willful ignorance than the theme and opening line of Obama’s State of the Union speech: "The Shadow Of Crisis Has Passed" Do Obama and his advisors actually believe this Crisis is over? Or is he purposely misleading the American people about the seriousness of our circumstances because he has been instructed to do so by the men who really pull the levers of this country?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Economists: They Can Add But Can't Put Two & Two Together





Once again we found ourselves bewildered while watching financial discussions on television. All one needs to do to follow along is forget your rational objective analysis at the door, have another glass of the proverbial “Kool-Aid™, and chant with the congregation panel “everything is just awesome!” Why? Because it’s in the “numbers!” When you listen to most of these debates by economists using today’s “numbers” one can’t help but think any release of data must be taken as holy writ. For our money, when it comes to this new theology of economics, we’d rather be with the heretics. Maybe we don’t understand how they can believe the numbers they recite. But we do no one thing above all else. We won’t partake in the Kool-Aid.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Halliburton To Cut Up To 6,500 Jobs As Crude Carnages To Crucial $50 Level





But everything was supposed to be fixed?

*HALLIBURTON WILL CUT 5,000-6,500 JOBS: HOUSTON BUSINESS JOURNAL

WTI is tumbling down 5%, nearing the crucial $50 level...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Despite The ECB's Worst Wishes, Greek Deposit Outflows Said To Slow To A Trickle In February





Since central banks are there 24/7 and on site to intervene and "eliminate" Greek leverage at any flashing red headline, it is up to Greece to create a narrative that the European leverage in turn is also weaker, which means to project, whether based on truth or otherwise, that Greek bank deposit outflows are slowing. That is precisely what Reuters reported moments ago when it reported, citing Greek bankers, that deposit outflows have slowed so far in February after a sharp increase estimated for a month earlier, but savers are still uneasy over the new leftist government's standoff with its official lenders.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Small Business Optimism Tumbles, Misses By Most In Over 2 Years





But the shadow of crisis has passed... it appears the engine of job growth in America is sputtering as NFIB Small Business optimism dropped from 100.4 to 97.9 (against an extrapolated 101.0 expectation - the biggest miss since Nov 2012). Across the board the data was disappointing with the percentage of firms expecting a better economy falling to 0%, and the number of employers anticipating job creation drops to just 14%.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Jim Grant: The Greek Monetary Back-Story





Raging against its German creditors, the new Greek government is demanding reparations for Nazi-era depredations. Herewith - from Jim Grant’s archives - some timely context both for the Greek negotiating position and the underlying monetary issues.

 
Sprott Money's picture

Oil Prices Rebound…but not a True Recovery





Three consecutive days of oil prices rising and suddenly all is well again. This is the extremely short sightedness that the markets possess. The bottom callers have come out in droves, screaming that prices will only move higher from here, but will they?

There is a possibility that oil prices may of hit a near term low, and will likely stabilize in the $40 to $45 per barrel range. However, the reasons for the recent rise in oil prices that market pundits have been expressing are simply not true.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

We've Run The Numbers And It's True - This Is A Failed Strategy





The urgency to put your savings to work is understandable, but patience is a virtue. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to wait for the right opportunity to come along... The math is pretty simple.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Singularity Is Already Here - It's Name Is Big Data





It seems like everyone and his brother today are wringing their hands about AI and some impending “Singularity”, a moment of future doom where non-human intelligence achieves some human-esque sentience and decides in Matrix-like fashion to turn us into batteries or some such. Please. The Singularity is already here. Its name is Big Data. Big Data is magic, in exactly the sense that Arthur C. Clarke wrote of sufficiently advanced technology. But here’s the magic trick that we're worried about for investors...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Arthur Berman: Why Today's Shale Era Is The Retirement Party For Oil Production





Much of what's been 'sold' to us about the US shale oil revolution is massively over-hyped. The amount of commercially-recoverable shale oil is much less than touted, returns much less net energy than the petroleum our economy was built around, and is extremely unprofitable to extract for most drillers at today's lower oil price. To separate the hype from reality, Arthur Berman explains the recent US oil production boost from shale drilling as short-lived and somewhat desperate; a kind of last hurrah before the lights get turned out...

 
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