"Time will tell who is right. But remember that we live in an era where computer trading dominates the American stock market. The "robots" that are making a lot of trading calls aren't sitting around pondering China's economy. They are paying attention to whether stocks fall below key levels. What are those levels? No one knows exactly. But these two metrics are worth watching. If these thresholds are crossed, both computer and human traders will consider it a game-changer point."
In yet another somewhat surreal twist in The Donald's path to The White House, Fox Business reports the long, sometimes contentious relationship between Donald Trump and Steve Wynn has taken another turn, with the Las Vegas casino magnate serving as an unofficial adviser to Trump’s presidential campaign. Having known each other for 30 years, Fox's Gasparino notes that they have clashed in the past (Wynn on Turmp in 1998 "He's a fool," and Trump on Wynn "he's a very strange guy.") but in recent years both have been critical of the leftward tilt of the Democratic Party and president Obama.
The characteristic feeling of the post-2008 world has been one of anxiety. Occasionally, that anxiety breaks out into fear as it did in the last two weeks when stock markets around the world swooned and middle class and wealthy investors had a sudden visitation from Pan, the god from whose name we get the word "panic." Pan's appearance is yet another reminder that the relative stability of the globe from the end of World War II right up until 2008 is over. We are in uncharted waters. The relentless, if zigzag, rise in financial markets for the past 150 years has been sustained by cheap fossil fuels and a benign climate. We cannot count on either from here on out...
The can is no longer rolling along. Instead, it has come to a near halt, with central bankers and government policymakers desperate to give it another boot. Watch out!
Since the start of the Second Great Depression, the US economy has lost 1.4 million manufacturing workers, but has more than made up for this with the addition ff 1.5 million waiters and bartenders.
With just 20 minutes to go until the latest most important jobs report ever in the history of man, Richmond Fed Chief Lacker just explained why "the case for raising rates is still strong"...
LACKER: BOTH MANDATE CONDITIONS 'APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN MET', EXCEPTIONALLY LOW RATES NO LONGER WARRANTED BY JOB MKT
LACKER: AUG. JOBS REPORT UNLIKELY TO `MATERIALLY ALTER' PICTURE
But perhaps most crucially, Lacker explains "recent financial market volatility is unlikely to affect economic fundamentals in the United States and thus has limited implications for monetary policy," removing the one last leg for permabulls to rely on (that is if you velieve The Fed is not Dow-Data-Dependent).
FX Traders Fear "Worst Case Scenario" For Brazil As FinMin Cancels Travel Plans, Rousseff Meets With LulaSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2015 18:24 -0400
The situation in Brazil is deteriorating rapidly after finance minister Joaquim Levy canceled a G20 appearance in Turkey (irony) and convened a meeting with embattled President Dilma Rousseff. FX traders fear a worst case scenario involving Levy's exit. Meanwhile, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is en route to Brasilia tonight to meet with Rousseff one-on-one.
To answer the question: yes, the US recession is hiding just under the "question mark" at the unexplained and perplexing divergence between industrial production, and actual end sales all of which result in a record inventory stockpiling which as we showed before, is what recently boosted Q2 GDP to an unsustainable 3.7% growth rate.
The US economy was not “decoupled” in the slightest during the expansion of the great global monetary boom that has now crested. Nor will it uncouple during the deflationary bust that must necessarily ensue. The ultimate worldwide hit to US exports is evident in the 20% drop in shipments to Brazil, and that’s just for starters because its economic depression is just getting underway. Likewise, the panicked flight of hot dollars from Brazil now besetting the global financial markets is only indicative of the turmoil to come as the massive “dollar short” unwinds on a global basis. So this is not a retest. We are in the midst of an unprecedented global deflation. A real live bear market is once again at hand.
By monetizing more than the entire Japanese budget deficit, the BOJ is running of out willing sellers. Without those, Japan's QE, just like that of the ECB, will grind to a halt. Better yet, this creates a vicious loop, because with every passing month, the inevitable D-Day when the BOJ has no more TSYs on the offer gets closer, which in turn will force those who bought stocks to sell in anticipation of the end of QE, and to seek the safety of bonds themsleves, in effect precipitating the next inevitable Japanese stock market crash.
While many continue to debate if what with every passing day increasingly looks like a global recession, one from which the US will not decouple no matter how many "virtual portfolio" asset managers claim the contrary, there are those who without much fanfare are already taking proactive steps to avoid the kind of fallout that the markets have hinted in the past month of trading, is inevitable. Some such as Calstrs: the nation's second largest pension fund with $191 billion in assets (smaller only than Calpers), which as the WSJ reports is "considering a significant shift away from some stocks and bonds amid turbulent markets world-wide." According to the WSJ, it will move as much as $20 billion, or 12% of the fund’s stock portfolio, into other assets, including Treasurys.
Given “highly accommodative” policy almost everywhere, and so little gained; it isn’t a good sign particularly after eight incessant years of it and the lagged effects from the renewed “dollar” wave still to be withstood. Every year was supposed to be “the year”, but 2015 was a surefire lock according to orthodox versions. The real difference, unlike past years, is that everything is going wrong so far just as predicted by the “strong dollar.”
Then - "We will not have any more crashes in our time." – John Maynard Keynes (1927)
Now - "Ambarella, GoPro & FitBit are headed higher" - Jim Cramer (7/22)
With all eyes glued to Friday's payrolls report, we thought it worth reiterating some 'facts' about US employment data. As ECRI notes, the sustained decline in the official jobless rate – now approaching the Fed’s estimate of “full employment” – is a misleading indicator of labor market slack. The data shows that the so-called jobs recovery has been spearheaded by cheap labor, with job gains going disproportionately to the least educated — and lowest-paid — workers. This is scarcely a good basis for resilient consumer spending driven by “solid” job growth that the consensus – including the Fed – is banking on.