Recession

Trump's Bait And Switch?

Within the political-financial establishment, the more things change, the more, it seems, they stay the same. As Trump moves ahead with his cabinet picks, several of them already stand out in a Mellon-esque fashion for their staggering wealth, their legal entanglements, and the policies they seem ready to support that sound like eerie throwbacks to the age of Harding.

What Has Gone Wrong With Oil Prices, Debt, & GDP Growth?

It would be nice if we could figure out a way to make our economy last forever, but it is doubtful that we can. Ultimately, the battle between diminishing returns and increased complexity seems likely to be settled in a way that causes the economy to collapse.

Waiting For The Trump Fiscal Stimulus To Hit? Forget About 2017

According to Goldman calculations, the likely phase in period for the Trump fiscal stimulus is the very end of 2017, if not early 2018 at the earliest: "Our preliminary expectation is that the growth effects from looser fiscal policy would be concentrated in Q4 2017 and the first half of 2018."