Recession

Are Oil Prices To Blame For The Venezuelan Crisis? (Spoiler Alert: Of Course Not!)

Venezuela is undergoing the typical collapse of a country that has been subject to years of all kinds of political interventions. The fall in oil prices is the external shock that brings to light the embarrassing result of years of price controls, currency controls, nationalizations, uncontrolled monetary creation, and economic dirigisme.

5 Actual 'Facts' About Tax Reform

Investors want to see corporate tax reform (including repatriation relief) succeed. Individual tax reform is a “Nice to have” but negotiations there could derail the corporate side.

Q1 GDP Takes Another Hit As Wholesale Inventories Slide In March

With non-hope-based GDP forecasts for Q1 at cycle lows, today's wholesale inventories decline will not help. After dropping in January, and rebounding in Feb, March saw inventories drop 0.1% (against expectations of a 0.2% rise). This is the first quarterly decline in wholesale inventories since Q1 2016 (when the world was feared to be heading into recession).

US Home Prices Rise At The Fastest Pace Since July 2014

While it is unclear if the Chinese, tired of fighting regulations in Canada, are behind the latest jump in home prices, today Case-Shiller reported that its index of Top 20 cities rose at a 5.9% annual rate, the highest increase since July 2014, citing tight supply and growing housing demand.

Venezuela's Maduro - Selling The Golden Goose

Mister Maduro, in order to buy a bit more time in the presidential mansion, is selling the golden goose. For those who wonder why it’s so often the case that a nation that’s been knocked down economically rarely rises up again within the same generation, the answer is manifestly clear in Venezuela...

Is The Fed About To Drop The MOAB On Wall Street?

What all this warrants is extreme caution in Bubbleville. With geopolitical risk flashing bright red, half percent GDP growth, record high equity valuations and a delusional Fed that continues threatening interest rate normalization; the market’s reality check is surely imminent.