Recession

Restaurants In D.C. Slash Jobs After Minimum Wage Hike

In yet another stunning example of the unintended consequences of minimum wage hikes, restaurants in Washington D.C. are slashing jobs.  "The last time DC experienced restaurant job losses in five out of six consecutive months was 25 years ago in 1991, and the last time 1,400 jobs were lost over any six-month period was 15 years ago during the 2001 recession."

Jackson Hole'd - A New Monetary Order Looms

The title of this year’s Jackson Hole meeting – “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future” – is a telling one. It is actually a call to a specific goal, rather than the typical generic one. You get the feeling that the Fed has something on its mind... Translation: Fed projections have been wrong, and the central bank doesn’t know how to make them any better in the future.

85% Of Wall Street Expects a "Dovish Hike Signal" From Yellen Tomorrow

Earlier this week, Citi's head of G10 FX strat Steven Englander conducted a survey among 350 participants asking them what they expect from Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole speech. According to the vast majority, or 85% of the respondents, Yellen will lean toward one 2016 rate hike with hiking risk “overwhelmingly” in December even as September hiking risk is seen as “modestly underpriced."

Is The End Nigh? Former FOMC Member Warns "The Fed Is Vulnerable"

If, as is likely, the economy is closer to recession than resurgence, the Fed is poorly positioned to respond with force, efficacy and credibility. The Fed is vulnerable. Its recent centennial as our nation’s central bank should not be confused with its permanent acceptance in the American political system.

Frontrunning: August 25

  • Stock futures lower as countdown to Yellen speech begins (Reuters)
  • Italy quake death toll nears 250 as rescuers search demolished towns (Reuters)
  • Central bankers eye public spending to plug $1 trillion investment gap (Reuters)
  • Chelsea Clinton Plans to Stay on Board of Family Foundation (WSJ)
  • Bond Traders Are Desperate for Direction From Yellen in Jackson Hole (BBG)

Heading Down The J-Hole: "The Fed Isn't Hawkish"

The Fed isn’t hawkish. Beyond the consistent headlines talking up an imminent Fed hike or regurgitating the truism that every meeting is “live,” the substance of recent commentary from policy makers has been notable for its balance, and that’s a dovish shift... but with the economy sagging once again, is the market priced for such an outcome as Janet 'fesses up to the limits of monetary policy?

Government Study Admits Fed Policies Have Deepened Downturn For Many

People, more and more of them, understand the impossibility of improving the economy by giving a handful of people the power to expand or contract the money stock at will. In simplest terms it is a ridiculous idea. It can’t work. It doesn’t work. And this analysis is further proof. And sooner or later the current system will not have the necessary popular support to survive.

5 Factors That Could Turn America Into Another Collapsed Empire

Many people have written about poor countries that have fallen apart. But rich nations fall apart, too. In fact, nations are just as likely to unravel after periods of prosperity as after periods of depression. The 2016 presidential campaign appears so bitter precisely because so many Americans worry that the “other” party’s candidate will annihilate the nation.

Existing Home Sales Crush Recovery Narrative, Plunge Most Since Nov 2015

Following yesterday's 7 standard deviation beat in New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales for July missed expectations by 2 standard deviations dropping 1.64% YoY - the first annual decline since Nov 2015. The blame for this collapse - according to NAR's Larry Yun - is "frustratingly low inventory levels."

The Chimera Of 'Stable' Money

'Stable' money was a chimera. It did not bring stability to the world economy. It did not counter the instability emanating from deposit banking. It actually added to the severity of booms and busts. To function efficiently, capitalism needs a foundation of sound money, not stable money.

Stocks Creep Higher As Dollar Resumes Falling, Oil Slides For Second Day

While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.

Fed Admits Another $4 Trillion In QE Will Be Needed To Offset An "Economic Shock"

"Large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate have almost no ability to offset a shock in current circumstances, but down the road may be able to provide enough additional accommodation to fully compensate for a more limited [ability] to cut short-term interest rates in some, but not all and maybe even not most, circumstances."