Recession

Albert Edwards: "What On Earth Is Going On With US Wages"

"What on earth is going on with US average hourly earnings (AHE)? Three consecutive Employment Reports have seen this key measure of wage inflation surprise by its weakness. I feel especially foolish as I had written that wages were set to accelerate sharply" - Albert Edwards

UMich Confidence Shows Partisan Divide Widest Ever But All Agree It's Time To Sell Your House

UMich confidence is stable at its post-Trump plateau for now, but the partisan divide between Republicans (robust economic growth ahead) and Democrats (recession looms) has never been wider. However, one thing they all agree on is that for the first time since the peak of the housing market in 2006, home-buyers are negative on home prices with home-sellers most dominant since 2005.

The Bubble That Could Break The World

The key to bubble analysis is to look at what’s causing the bubble. If you get the hidden dynamics right, your ability to collect huge profits or avoid losses is greatly improved. Based on data going back to the 1929 crash, this current bubble looks like a particular kind that can produce large, sudden losses for investors. The market right now is especially susceptible to a sharp correction, or worse.

What Keeps Bank of America Up At Night

"The last two weeks have further underpinned our belief that the market has had misplaced optimism in the new administration's reform agenda, while we find more and more evidence that suggests the macro environment echoes that of 2014 and 2015."

Six Terrifying Graphs That Summarize America's Public Pension Crisis

A new report from the Hoover Institution reviews, in detail, 649 state, county and local pension systems in the United States and ranks them based on funding status and impact on local budgets.  What it reveals is a hidden taxpayer debt burden, in the form of underfunded pensions liabilities, totaling over $3.8 trillion.

Can The US Economy Ever Get Back To 3% GDP Growth?

It is really about reasserting the preeminence of humans – the workforce – in any calculus of macroeconomic policy. Make them (us, really) more productive, and the economy will grow faster. And if that is impossible, and with it that 3% target, then technology will replace the worker rather than simply augment his or her efforts.

The Republic Has Fallen: The Deep State's Plot To Take Over America Has Succeeded

The coup d’etat has been successful. The Deep State - a.k.a. the police state, a.k.a. the military industrial complex - has taken over. The American system of representative government has been overthrown by a profit-driven, militaristic corporate state bent on total control and global domination through the imposition of martial law here at home and by fomenting wars abroad.

Does The World End In Fire Or Ice?

Japan has managed to offset decades of deflationary dynamics, but at a cost that is hidden beneath the surface of apparent stability. Do we implode in a deflationary death spiral (ice) or in an inflationary death spiral (fire)?