• Pivotfarm
    05/26/2015 - 16:54
    We have fast-paced lives, we pay to get fast-tracked, we eat fast-food and we fast-forward on a film that bores us. Our lives are fast. We even have fast fashion; our clothes are fast these days from...

Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

The Only Question That Matters In Today's Markets





There’s only one question that matters today in markets: why is the government bond market going up and down like a yo-yo? How is it possible that the deepest and most important securities in the world are currently displaying all the trading stability of a biotech stock?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"We're Living In A Make-Believe World" Biderman Warns "A Global Recession Is Inevitable"





"Right now, we’re living in a make believe world. Debt can’t be the main source of growth. Without a pick-up in final demand a lot of bad debts are out there. As long as you have excess capacity in the commodity production you have bad loans throughout the system. That means you have governments who can’t repay their debt without selling new loans and all their bad loans are funded by the central banks.... I think a global recession is inevitable...You just can’t devalue your way to prosperity. As long as the number of shares keeps declining, stock prices are going to go up and nobody cares [but] in the long term there has to be a major correction."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

There Ain't Enough Bourbon In Kentucky





American consumers may have pocketed most of their gas savings thus far, but there are two discretionary items where they aren’t holding back spending: bourbon and Tennessee whiskey.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Meanwhile, In The Real Economy... Or Why Deutsche Thinks "Lunatics Are Running" The Fed





"...it is imperative that the data does turnaround during 2015h2 for the recent rise in yields to be sustained. It is quite surprising to us that there is so much focus on US employment data and Fed Funds normalization to the exclusion of global trade data or US demand let alone productivity. A case perhaps of the lunatics trying to run the asylum."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Dallas Fed Crashes To Six Year Lows As Employment Collapses





Having missed for a record 5 months in a row, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook collapsed further in May to -20.8 (against expectations of -12.4). Thisis the 5th drop in a row (only ever seen in a recession) and 6th monthly miss in a row (never seen before) as it appears Former Dallas Fed Fisher was talking crap once again when he said "net, low oil prices were good for Texas." Despite Consumer Confidence indicating, somehow, that Texans are the most confident in a year (up from 121 to 130 in May), business survey continues to point to notable weakness with employment collapsing, hours worked crashing, and production plunged. However, on a bright note, expectations for the future jumped from -5.9 to +4.9 - hope springs etermal eh?

 
GoldCore's picture

John Nash RIP: “Beautiful Mind” Game Theory May Lead to Gold Standard





In an important interview with Reuters in 2012, John Butler suggested that if one country - he cited Russia - were to back its currency with gold it could cause a 20% collapse in the dollar in just 24 hours. In order to stabilise the currency and in an attempt to preserve the reserve currency status of the dollar, the U.S. would be forced against its will to back its currency with gold.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Durable Goods Orders Slide YoY 4th Month In A Row Despite Dramatic Upward Revisions





After dramatically upwardly revised data from last month (but following an even more dramatic downward revision to all historical data earlier in the month) - the highly noisy series of Durable Goods Orders printed -0.5% (from +5.1% in March, revised up from +4.0%). Capital Goods Orders (non-defense Ex-Air) beat expectations MoM (printing +1.0% vs 0.3%) and was revised remarkably up from the biggest drop since 2012 to a 1.5% rise in March. Core Capital Goods Orders, however, remains negative YoY for the 4th months in a row. The last time this happened was either a recession, or the Fed unleashed QE3.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

ISIS Planning US Nuclear Attack In Next 12 Months: Report





Three weeks after the first supposed attack by Islamic State supporters in the US, in which two ISIS "soldiers" wounded a security guard before they were killed in Garland, Texas, the time has come to raise the fear stakes. In an article posted in the terrorist group's English-language online magazine Dabiq (which as can be see below seems to have gotten its design cues straight from Madison Avenue and is just missing glossy pages filled with 'scratch and sniff' perfume ads ) ISIS claimed that it has enough money to buy a nuclear weapon from Pakistan and "carry out an attack inside the United States next year."

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Single Largest Misallocation of Capital in History





The global Central Banks, driven by their Keynesian lunacy, have induced the single largest misallocation of capital in history.

 
 
Tyler Durden's picture

"New Silk Road" Could Change Global Economics Forever, Part 1





China is building the world’s greatest economic development and construction project ever undertaken: The New Silk Road. The project aims at no less than a revolutionary change in the economic map of the world. It is also seen by many as the first shot in a battle between east and west for dominance in Eurasia. For the world at large, its decisions about the Road are nothing less than momentous. The massive project holds the potential for a new renaissance in commerce, industry, discovery, thought, invention, and culture that could well rival the original Silk Road. It is also becoming clearer by the day that geopolitical conflicts over the project could lead to a new cold war between East and West for dominance in Eurasia.

 
GoldCore's picture

‘Titanic’ Global Economy May “Collapse” Warn HSBC - Gold Is Lifeboat





“The world economy is like an ocean liner without lifeboats ...” - HSBC.
Fail to prepare ... Prepare to fail ...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Steen Jakobsen Warns, Brace For The Next Recession





The financial world today is now an island on its own – separated from the real economy, as can be seen by the paradox of record high valuation in the stock market coinciding with record low inflation, employment , productivity and no hope. There is asset inflation, but deflation in the real economy. When the world has been this long at the zero-bound, the misallocation, the inability to reform, and a toolbox without new tools creates a mandate for change. "I expect stocks to trade sideways for the balance of 2015 and have now sold all my fixed income, increased my gold exposure, and I’m looking to buy mining companies and overall to increase my exposure to commodities beyond the normal allocation."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The US Department Of Commerce Officially Jumps The Shark, Will "Double Seasonally Adjust" GDP Data





It's official: after seeing it work so well for years in China, the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Statistics has officially replaced all of its excel models with just one function. The following.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

In No State Can A Minimum Wage Worker Afford A One Bedroom Apartment





Earlier this month we learned that in 21 out of the 26 OECD member countries that have a minimum wage, working 40 hours per week at the pay floor would not be sufficient to keep one's family out of poverty. Now, we discover something even more shocking...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Fallacy Of Unequivocal Faith In The Fed's Babbling Bubble-Blowers





To preserve any idea that the US is not heading into recession, the FOMC is now wholly reliant on statistical processes within the BEA’s use of the Census Bureau’s updated ARIMA-X13 modeling system. It is amazing to see this policy body that once proclaimed, unequivocally and forcefully, that it could perform the monetary equivalent of sorcery and alchemy reduced to quivering about winter. The latest policy statement, a silly farce of its own accord, is, quite simply, an embarrassment.

 

 
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