Tyler Durden's picture

Another Petro-State Throws In The Towel: The Last Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin

While record mainland deficits covered by the petroleum sector is nothing new in Norwegian budget history, on the contrary it is closer to the norm, the 2016 budget did raise some eyebrows. The other side of the ledger, the net inflow to the SWF from activities in the North Sea will, again according to budget, be lower than the required amount to cover the deficit. This has never happened before and is testimony of the sea change occurring in the world of petrodollar recycling. 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Dumbest Thing You Will Read Today... Maybe Ever

Dear Americans, meet your venerable central planners:


So, according to the Fed's academic experts, the US economy is not, well, the US economy, it's not Y = C + I + G + NX, it's not the product of all goods and services created in the United States...  it's this:

Tyler Durden's picture

Weekend Reading: Is The Correction Over?

This past week saw the markets rebound off their lows which has brought the "bulls" rushing back claiming the correction is over. However, is that really the case?

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Demolishes Jobless Claims Hype: "This Does Not Signal A Booming Labor Market"

As we pointed out previously, the growing convergence between BLS-reported initial jobless claims (at 42 year lows) and reported job cuts (highest since 2009) suggests someone is lying. It appears we have found the cuplrit as Goldman Sachs confirms that changes in gross labor market flows (e.g. gross hires and quits), as well as changes in the unemployment insurance benefit take up rate, affect the relationship between jobless claims and employment growth over the cycle. For this reason, today’s low level of jobless claims should probably not be taken as a sign of a booming labor market.

Tyler Durden's picture

The High-End Consumer Is Rolling Over: Will Apple Save The Economy From A Recession This Time?

The latest BAC credit and debit card spending data is out and it is not pretty, and not just for the mid-level consumer who, as documented previously, has been tapping out ever since April as the following Gallup consumer spending chart shows but also for the high-end.

Tyler Durden's picture

Economists Finally Admit, Odds Of A US Recession Are On The Rise

As the evidence, that the US economy is either in or near a recession, mounts (confirmed by a new cycle high in inventories-to-sales just today), it appears even the most ardent optimists are admitting the odds of a US recession are on the rise. As Bloomberg reports, for the first time in 14 months, economists year-ahead recession probability estimates rose (to their highest level in 2 years).

Tyler Durden's picture

Wholesale Inventories Rise And Sales Tumble Sending Ratio To "Recession Imminent" Cycle Highs

Wholesale Inventories rose 0.1% MoM (more than expected and the most in 7 months) and Sales dropped 1.0% MoM (notably less than expected and weakest in 7 months) sending the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.31x - new cycle highs - and flashing the brightest recession warning yet. With inventories up 4.2% YoY and Sales down 4.5% YoY, the stunning reality is the absolute dollar spread between inventories and sales has never been bigger.

GoldCore's picture

Global Depression Coming - Even "Powerhouse" Germany and UK Slow "Dramatically"

Investors should hope for the best while making preparations for less benign scenarios. This can be achieved by reducing leverage and speculation and having a healthy allocation to physical precious metals in the safest vaults in the world.

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 9

  • Global stocks eye biggest rally in four years on Fed relief (Reuters)
  • FOMC Minutes Sap Confidence in Fed's 2015 Rate Hike Resolve (BBG)
  • Glencore to cut annual zinc production by a third (FT)
  • Tea Party wave that lifted Republicans threatens to engulf them (Reuters)
  • Why Kevin McCarthy Came to Quit Speaker Race (WSJ)
  • A U.S. Recession Just Got a Little More Likely (BBG)
Tyler Durden's picture

Why This Feels Like A Depression For Most People

These facts reveal the utter falsity of the propaganda drenched duplicitous data dumped by the BLS on behalf of vested interests who have captured our government and have an agenda requiring the public to be kept in the dark regarding their own dire financial situation. No matter how you slice the data, it reveals an absolute parallel to the situation during the Great Depression.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Stock Market Rally... To Nowhere

"...the markets did retest the late August lows, and when combined with the very oversold conditions, led to a frantic 'short covering' rally back to previous resistance. It is worth noting that the recent market action is very similar to that of the August decline and initial rebound as well... . If the market is still confined within a more "bearish" trend, the current rally, like the ones that preceded it, will be a "rally to nowhere."

Tyler Durden's picture

"I'm Not Here To Beg You To Open Your F##king Eyes"

We're often asked whether we really believe that government and policymakers intentionally create laws and policies that hurt the people and help themselves.  The answer is typically that, “if you’re asking me this question you know I do but you don’t believe me; so either do your own research or continue to live in the world as you wish to perceive it.  I’m not here to beg you to open your f##king eyes.”

Tyler Durden's picture

It's Time For Negative Rates, Fed's Kocherlakota Hints

If you’re a fan of dovish policymakers who are committed to Keynesian insanity, you can always count on Minneapolis Fed chief Narayana Kocherlakota who is out today with the latest hint that NIRP is coming to America.

Tyler Durden's picture

Brazilian Nightmare Continues As Rousseff Suffers Major Setback, Impeachment Looms

"The BRL will continue to be under pressure. I think it will be a continuous and arduous political struggle from here and some will try to bring the impeachment proposal forward."

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