• Pivotfarm
    04/18/2014 - 12:44
    Peering in from the outside or through the looking glass at what’s going down on the other side is always a distortion of reality. We sit here in the west looking at the development, the changes and...

recession recovery

Tyler Durden's picture

Grade The Recessiovery





Here, for your comparative studies analytical viewing pleasure, is the current recession recovery in context. Across activity indicators, consumer behavior, labor market developments, and housing & construction, there is a little here for everyone. From vehicle sales to disposable income and from durable goods to industrial production, it seems grading this economy's performance is a matter of 'see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil'.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Rosenberg Opens Pandora's 'Global Economic Shock' Box





In a detailed discussion with Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg addresses everything from Europe's "inability to grow its way out of the problem" amid its 'existential moment', Asian 'trade shock' and commodity contagion, and US housing, saving, and fiscal uncertainty. He believes we are far from a bottom in housing, despite all the rapacious calls for it from everyone, as the over-supply overhang remains far too high. "The last six quarters of US GDP growth are running below two percent" he notes that given the past sixty years of experience this is stall speed, and inevitably you slip into recession". He is back to his new normal of 'frugality' and bearishness on the possibilities of any solution for Europe but, most disconcertingly he advises Keene that "when you model fiscal uncertainty into any sort of economic scenario in the U.S., what it means is that businesses raise their liquidity ratios and households build up their savings rates. This comes out of spending growth. And that's the problem - you've got the fiscal uncertainty coupled with a US export 'trade shock'."

 


asiablues's picture

An Intelligence Network For Supply Chain Energy Commodities Forecasting





In recent years, instability in the price of energy sources and basic feedstocks — including oil and natural gas — has prompted companies to place more emphasis on supply chain market intelligence and business intelligence.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

David Rosenberg Refutes Erin Burnett's Misconceptions About The "Recovery"





We like Erin Burnett: after all she is ranked 33 on the Fortune 40 under 40. Who can not like someone who has managed to get that high in the rankings on pure talent, although some recent CNBC appearances did seem to indicate a slight, shall we say, bias, when her guests tend not to disagree with Ms. Burnett's misperception of the world. Indeed, in a recent appearance on Meet The Press, the youngish CNBC anchor made some statements that go straight to errorchecking and bias validation. At 47 minutes into the  interview (extracted) Ms. Burnett says: "I think the problem is you have the fastest job creation in this recovery than you have in any recession in 25 years... Technically speaking this recovery has not been tepid." Alas, we are not sure who fed the CNBC employee these "facts" and figures, but they are patently false.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Charting The Worst And Soon To Be Shortest Economic "Recovery" Ever





The Minneapolis Fed has launched a useful charting service which analyzes not only the Great Recession, which allegedly has ended (must be news to the 1.8 million...and growing...newly uncovered unemployed, but we'll take the NBER's word for it) but the even Greater Recovery that we have presumably been in for the past 6 months or so. At least those Fed critters have a twisted sense of humor. In order to quantify just how funny they are, the Min Fed provides the following preamble "The 2007-2009 recession is widely thought to have ended sometime last summer. How bad was this recession, and how quickly is the economy recovering? How does this recession and recovery compare to previous cycles?"How indeed? Here are the charts which just a cursory perusal will lead the peruser to wonder what on earth the administration is smoking. Recovery indeed.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Overallotment: March 26





  • Alles ist gut in China, except for those pesky missing profits (Bloomberg)
  • ...While its central bank governor says Chinese recession recovery greatest thing since slided bread (Bloomberg)
  • Top Swiss banks execs banned
 


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