Jan 2008: Bernanke "The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession." Jun 2008: Bernanke "The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished." Jun 2016: Yellen "chances of recession this year are 'quite low'... The U.S. economy is doing well. My expectation is that the U.S. economy will continue to grow." Channelling Bernanke?
While hardly coming as a surprise to anyone, moments ago the Fed announced that all 33 banks have enough capital to withstand a severe economic shock, though Morgan Stanley trailed the rest of Wall Street in a key measure of leverage, Bloomberg reports. The biggest bank cleared the most severe scenario handily, with the exception of Morgan Stanley whose projected 4.9% leverage ratio tied for last place alongside a Canadian bank’s U.S. unit, falling within a percentage point of the 4 percent minimum. As a result of today's "test result" many banks will likely win regulators' approval next week to boost dividends.
The true fear lies with those who stand to lose the most, in this case the countries who hold the Euro currency together with the thinnest of threads. As Britons head to the polling booths, they should hold their heads high, rightly insulted at the feigned notion that the UK cannot stand on its own. After all, much of the civilized world we take for granted today is rooted in the British rule of law.
"There is an argument that a Brexit might look similar to the aftermath of sterling?s ignominious exit from the ERM on ?Black Wednesday? 16 September 1992. In a current environment where central banks and governments have failed to generate a strong enough economic recovery to normalise interest rates amid persistent deflationary pressures, one would have thought a substantial decline in one?s currency would be welcomed ?- for that is one way to inject a modicum of inflation back into the economic system."
Following a scathing speech by Hillary Clinton yesterday, in which the Democratic candidate warned a Trump presidency would unleash a recession, Trump on Wednesday retaliated with a blistering attack of his own on Hillary Clinton, assailing her as “a world class liar” and failed secretary of state who can’t be trusted on issues ranging from the turmoil in the Middle East to immigration and trade. His resounding punchline was that “Hillary Clinton may be the most corrupt person to ever seek the presidency of the United States,” during a speech in his hotel in SoHo, reading from a teleprompter in his first major speech of the general election.
The long-term decline in median income, amplified in 2016 by the biggest drop in weekly earnings in history, puts the lie to the pretense of self-sustaining recovery.Average people don’t have enough discretionary income to sustain expanded economic activity.
After a Gallup poll was released earlier this month showing that 53% of Americans prefer Donald Trump for handling the economy compared to 43% who prefer Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee felt the need to address the issue during a speech on Tuesday.
More than $10 trillion of government bonds now trade at negative yields. And another $10 trillion or so worth of U.S. stocks trade well above their long-term average valuations. And there’s more than $200 trillion of debt in the world – with about $60 trillion added since the global financial crisis. All of this sits on the Fed’s financial applecart. Does Janet Yellen dare upset it?Nah. It will have to upset itself.
Despite the surge in risk assets and bookies' odds, opinion polls show the Leave and Remain campaigns still neck and neck ahead of Thursday’s U.K. referendum on EU membership. Here are some key events that could drive market sentiment in the days and weeks ahead.