A robust economy would allow central banks to raise rates and still allow debts to be paid down. But that is not what is happening. And it won’t happen. Junkies rarely go out and get a job... and gradually “taper off” their habit. No. They have to crash... hit bottom... and sink into such misery that they have no choice but to go cold turkey. Now, major central banks are committed to QE and ZIRP forever. They have created an economy that is addicted to EZ money. It will have to be smashed to smithereens before the feds change their policies.
Awkward: After Bashing Cold Weather Excuses, Bank Of America Jumps On The "2nd Seasonal Adjustment" BandwagonSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/20/2015 09:55 -0400
When there is so much bullshit floating around that you forget what you wrote just a month ago, and when the central planners can't even agree on what lie to agree to use, then the status quo truly be in jeopardy.
That the Fed and other central banks have unleashed the speculative furies is an unassailable and baleful reality. What is going on here plain and simple is a one-sided game of chicken. The robo-traders and hedge fund buccaneers on Wall Street press the market higher on virtually no volume or conviction whenever macro-economic weakness presents itself, virtually daring the Fed to maintain is ultra-accommodative stance still longer. The casino gamblers will keep chop, chop choppin’ higher until they finally lose confidence that the Eccles building is heaven’s door to further riches. Then the machines will sell, sell, sell. There will be no credible Fed speakers to stop them.
- Clinton aides sometimes blocked release of documents requested under public-records law (WSJ)
- House Benghazi panel subpoenas former Clinton White House aide (Reuters)
- Cash Crunch, for Many, Is a Monthly Woe (WSJ)
- Doubts over Greece add to euro's ECB-driven frailty (Reuters)
- For Many American States, It's Like the Recession Never Ended (BBG)
- Japan debt plan needs BOJ to keep rates low for years (Reuters)
- Euro Continues to Fall; European Bonds, Stocks Broadly Steady (WSJ)
- Los Angeles gives preliminary approval to $15 minimum wage (Reuters)
Futures Flat With Greece In Spotlight; UBS Reveals Rigging Settlement; Inventory Surge Grows Japan GDPSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/20/2015 07:00 -0400
The only remarkable macroeconomic news overnight was out of Japan where we got the Q1 GDP print of 2.4% coming in well above consensus of 1.6%, and higher than the 1.1% in Q4. Did it not snow in Japan this winter? Does Japan already used double, and maybe triple, "seasonally-adjusted" data? We don't know, but we do know that both Japan and Europe have grown far faster than the US in the first quarter.
The largest problem with the data sets below is that they are all subject to large historical revisions. This is why the NBER is ALWAYS well after the fact in pronouncing the start and end of recessions in the U.S. economy. Given the ongoing interventions from the Federal Reserve and the current administration, it is likely that many of the statistics, and seasonal adjustment metrics, have been skewed in recent years. In the quarters ahead it is likely that we could see rather sharp adjustments to historical data which may suggest the economy has been far weaker than headline statistics have suggested.
It could go up, or it could go down.
It’s no secret that the protracted negotiations between Athens and its creditors are taking a toll on the Greek economy in general, on the Greek banking sector more specifically, and on Greek citizens most tragically. Now, thanks to a new report from the Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Enterprises, we can quantify the daily economic toll of failed negotiations.
Speaking in Camden, New Jersey, President Obama just uttered the following Detroit-esque words of doom:
*OBAMA SAYS CAMDEN IS SYMBOL OF PROMISE FOR NATION
"Water is one of the great opportunities of our times. If you look at the world there are some huge shortages developing in some parts but there is also a lot of water in other parts, just in the wrong place – like water in Siberia for instance, which is not where most people are. There are going to be wars in the Middle East over oil east of the Red Sea, but west of that there will be wars over water since there are serious water problems in that region." Jim Rogers:
"Imagine if we have another beginning of a catastrophe happening, not something as big as we had, but something smaller. Is people's sensitivity right now going to be so high that they're going to panic very quickly? I think the answer is: Yes. So we haven't done much to eliminate conflicts of interest, and we haven't done anything to earn back trust. And because of that, I deeply worry."
Tsipras has got the Eurogroup on speed dial now...
A look at the economic data and market psychology as a new week begins.
Explaining all that is wrong with the fraudulent US "jobs recovery" using the case study of Japan.
Reading like his name-sake's horror novels, HSBC's Chief Economist Stephen King unleashes a torrent of truthiness about the Titanic-like economic ocean liner that is headed for an iceberg except this fragile ship doesn’t have lifeboats.