• Marc To Market
    12/20/2014 - 12:21
    When the dollar falls, we are told it is logical.  The empire is crashing and burning.  When the dollar rises, the markets, we are told are manipulated.    Well, the dollar is...

Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Pours More Crude On The Fire: "Oil Prices Can Go Lower For Longer"





Slowing the rebalancing and creating further downside risk is a very strong consensus view that this pull back is temporary and that oil prices will quickly rebound as they did in 2009. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, the median WTI forecast for 2016 is $86/bbl (even we forecast it going back to $80/bbl). All of these forecasts are based upon now outdated cost data that is shifting as fast as the price. It is precisely this strong view for a rebound in prices and the behavior it creates, that not only suggests that oil prices can go lower for longer, but also that the new normal is far lower than we thought just one month ago. Instead of optimizing against a lower price environment, many oil producers are trying to position themselves for the rebound in prices

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Mario Draghi: Goodbye ECB, Hello Italian Presidency?





While the entire financial world is hanging on to every Mario Draghi word in hope Europe finally improves the market's (if not the economy's) "fundamentals" to new record highs, and joins the rest of the "developed" world's central banks in injecting trillions of liquidity into the Div/0 P/E stocks "whatever it takes" (because in a world where only multiple expansion is left, the ECB is the last wildcard at least until the US is dragged right back into the global recession and the Fed admits any pipe dreams of a rate hike in 2015 were just that), something far more different may be taking place behind the scenes. According to at least one journalist, the Fiscal Times' Patrick Smith, "Draghi appears set to leave Frankfurt and return to his native Italy the first chance he gets."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Crash Set To Continue After Arab Emirates Hint $40 Oil Coming Next





In space, no one can hear you scream... unless you happen to be Venezuela's (soon to be former) leader Nicolas Maduro, who has been doing a lot of screaming this morning following news that UAE's Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut crude output "even if oil prices fall as low as $40 a barrel" and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Nature Of Oil 'Stimulus' Is Strictly Imagined Math





It is amazing the speed at which FOMC officials have embraced not falling oil prices but collapsing crude. The pace of the decline is being driven, contrary to the fracking miracle, by the fact that nobody seems to want to bid on the stuff. That is, as I noted earlier, a demand problem. But officials like Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and FRBNY President Bill Dudley are saying that these lower oil prices, due to lower demand, will end up boosting demand – big time. That is the essence of their argument, that recession is the latest “stimulus.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Did The American Consumer Just Unwittingly Call The Top?





Who said economics can’t be fun?! How is it not absolutely brilliant that in the face of a collapsing shale oil industry – or at least, for the moment, of its financing model -, and the worst week for the Dow since 2011, the Thomson Reuters/UofMichigan consumer sentiment index shows American consumers are more optimistic than they’ve been in 8 years, and that “more consumers volunteered good news than bad news than in any month since 1984?? 1984! How does one trump that as a contrarian signal? And that I don’t mean to sound funny: that is serious.

 
CalibratedConfidence's picture

Andrew Hall, Phibro, Occidental





Phibro could have the ability to mask its activity in Occidental’s hedging activity. Speaking with traders within the oil complex, I learned that there has been heavy trading activity on the OTC market on the backend of the oil curve. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Japan's Abe Wins In Landslide Victory, LDP To Have Supermajority According To Exit Polls





  • JAPAN RULING LDP WINS 275-306 SEATS: NHK EXIT POLL
  • JUNIOR COALITION PARTNER KOMEITO WINS 31-36 SEATS: NHK POLL
  • JAPAN OPPOSITION DPJ WINS 61-87 SEATS: NHK EXIT POLL
  • JAPAN INNOVATION PARTY WINS 30-48 SEATS: NHK EXIT POLL
  • JAPAN COMMUNIST PARTY WINS 18-24 SEATS: NHK EXIT POLL
  • JAPAN RULING COALITION SET TO WIN 2/3 MAJORITY, NHK EXIT POLL
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Aftermath Of The Great 2014 Oil Crash "A Textbook Macroeconomic Shock"





Not a day passes without pundits on either side of the debate, eager to make their case that the acute, nearly 50% plunge in the price of crude, swear up and down their preferred economic ideology of choice that said plunge is [bullish|bearish] for the economy. The reality is that the true impact of the great oil crash of 2014 will not be revealed for at least several months, however for those who can't afford to wait, or simply lack the patience, here is perhaps the most comprehensive view of the pros and cons of what has now been dubbed a "textbook macroeconomic shock" by Deutsche Bank.

 
EconMatters's picture

The Fed Meets This Week Dealing with Alarming Bond Market Bubble





The only reason this bond bubble exists isn`t due to the lower price of oil, it is directly a result of too much cheap liquidity via ridiculously low interest rates by central banks. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Dummy's Guide To Tomorrow's Japanese Elections





The Japanese economy may well be getting crushed under the weight of Abenomics (courtesy of an unprecedented in history quadruple-dip recession and a record number of Japanese corporate bankruptcies due to the plunging Yen), but as we wrote previously, Abe has effectively hijacked the nation to his (and Paul Krugman's) stock-market levitating policies and has given Japan a simple choice: either you let us see this disastrous experiment in trickle-down monetarism to its tragic end, or all your pensions are toast.  Not much of a choice for a population which has more retirees than any developed nation. And it's not like Japan has much a chance anyway. Which is why the outcome of tomorrow's vote for Abenomics is completely irrelevant, and which the local press says will "unquestionably" be won by Abe in an absolute majority.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

14 Facts That Show The Number Of Children Living In Poverty This Christmas Is At A Record High





Did you know that 65 percent of all children in the United States live in a home that receives aid from the federal government?  We live at a time when child poverty in America is exploding. But as bad as things are for the children of America right now, they are only going to get worse. In the years ahead may we all have great compassion for these victims of our incredibly foolish economic mistakes.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Debunking Keynesian "History": The Gold Standard Had Nothing To Do With Panics And Busts





In our own era, the Fed prints excess dollars without concern that they be redeemable in gold. Which means that our capital misallocation is extensive and long-term, our recessions are long and deep, our growth trend is shallow, and our complacency about how right we are in contrast to the benighted past is callow and pitiable.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: Crude Oppositeness





This weekend's reading list is a collection of articles discussing the good, the bad and the ugly of the dive in crude oil prices.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The GPIF Has A Warning For Japan's Citizens: Abenomics Better Work, Or Your Pensions Are Toast





The president of the Japan's, and the world's largest, pension fund has a warning for Japan's citizens: “I have no doubt that the economy is in a recovery trend if you look at the long run,” GPIF President Takahiro Mitani said in an interview Friday. Actually, no, it isn't, unless you call a quadruple-dip recession a "recovery." But where it gets bad is what happens when not even Japan's corrupt apparatchiks can deny reality. Because, said otherwise, "Abenomics better work, or else all your pensions are toast."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Financialized-Oil Dominoes Are Toppling





Oil is not just something that is refined into fuel--it is capital, collateral, debt and risk. In other words, it is intrinsically financial. Simply put, the sharp drop in oil revenues has knocked over a line of financial dominoes whose end is not yet in sight.

 
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