Recession

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"Negative Rates Are Dangerous" OECD Chair Warns "Our Entire System Is Unstable"





"There is excessive debt everywhere and negative interest rates are dangerous... My number one fear? That’s the same as asking me where it will start. When you view the economy as a complex, adaptive system, like many other systems, one of the clear findings from the literature is that the trigger doesn’t matter; it’s the system that’s unstable. And I think our system is unstable... Central Bank models are just wrong"

 
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The Physics Of Energy & The Economy





When the economy collapses, it will collapse down to a lower sustainable level. Much of the world’s infrastructure was built when oil could be extracted for $20 per barrel. That time is long gone. So, it looks like the world will need to collapse back to a level before fossil fuels - perhaps much before fossil fuels.

 
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Tesla Releases Steaming Pile Of Epic "Non-GAAP" Gobbledygook; Stops Reporting Free Cash Flow; Stock Soars





Perhaps the only company's results we have more fun spreading that Netflix, is Tesla's for the simple reason that the company has managed to convert GAAP reality into a singularity of such non-GAAP bullshit, which is no longer merely laughable but is solidly inside the ridiculous, if not criminal (of course, nobody cares as long as the stock keeps rising but the second it plunges, watch those lawsuits soar), that none other company can even come close.

 
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"Confidence Is Lost": Fred Hickey Says "Bear Market Will Last Until QE4"





"The Fed is completely dangerous - it's the most dangerous entity out there. The policy makers are the ones who are causing much of the problems we have today... The bad news has only just begun... This bear market will continue which means we’re headed lower with rallies in between until the Federal Reserve is forced to come in and start QE4."

 
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It Was Never About Oil





What we do know is that the eurodollar system is failing and we know how it is failing. From negative swap spreads to the shrunken, depressed money and credit curves, they all spell out the death of the current standard. The money supply, for lack of a more appropriate term in the “dollar’s” universe, is in the long run converging with the shriveled economic baseline. The immediate problem for our current circumstances is that we don’t yet have any idea what that foundation might look like even now- how far is down.

 
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Treasury Yield Curve Plunges To Flattest Since 2007, Financials Follow





For the first time since 2007, the spread between 2Y and 10Y US treasury yields has to 100bps. While not inverted, which the status quo maintains means there cannot be a recession, the bond market is flashing ominous signs for both the economy and the US financial system...

 
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JPM's Striking Forecast: ECB Could Cut Rates To -4.5%; BOJ To -3.45%; Fed To -1.3%





JPM estimates that if the ECB just focused on reserves equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product it could slice the rate it charges on bank deposits to minus 4.5%. In Japan, JPM calculates that the BOJ could go as low as -3.45% while Sweden’s is likely -3.27%. Finally, if and when the Fed joins the monetary twilight race, it could cut to -1.3% and the Bank of England to -2.69%.

 
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Profit At World's Largest Shipping Company Plunges On Collapsing Global Trade, Sinking Crude Prices





Back in November, Nils Smedegaard Andersen, CEO of Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company, gave the world a reality check when it comes to global growth and trade. “The world’s economy is growing at a slower pace than the International Monetary Fund and other large forecasters are predicting” Andersen told Bloomberg. On Wednesday, we got a look at how the challenging environment affected Maersk's bottom line in 2015. The picture wasn't pretty.

 
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What Janet Yellen Could Say Tomorrow To Unleash A Market Surge





"The dovish surprise is if she explicitly removes March from the hiking calendar (which would be Draghi-esque in front running the FOMC), broadly hints at a delay or expresses concern on downside risk to long term inflation or structural stagnation. The intention would be to show US households, business and investors that the Fed has their back... It is unlikely, however, that pointing to negative rates or QE4 would work, as investors are increasingly skeptical that more of the same policy mix would be effective in hitting final goals."

 
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"Jingle Mail" Makes Comeback In Canada As Underwater Borrowers Mail Keys Back To Banks





"People [are] saying that we can't make a go of it and mail the keys to the bank. In the big cities, not so much because the average sale prices haven't really dropped much, we haven't seen the pain yet. But Calgary is getting pretty tight."

 
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If It Looks Like A Recession, And Smells Like A Recession...





Then we must be "peddling fiction..."

 
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Deutsche Bank Is Scared: "What Needs To Be Done" In Its Own Words





"So back to the  original question WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. Simple?  Recognize the problem. It is not oil, it is not in the banks..it is a run on central bank liquidity, especially dollar based and there needs to be much more ($) liquidity.... Cash shd be charged interest -- put the micro chip in large denom notes/tax cash withdrawals.. encourage spending not saving."

 
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Australia Admits Recent Stellar Job Numbers Were Cooked





John Fraser, the nation’s top economic bureaucrat, told a parliamentary panel in Canberra Wednesday that he held discussions on the employment figures with the chief statistician this week. There were some “technical issues” in October and November that may have made the employment figures “look a little bit better than otherwise would be the case,” he said. The technical issues relate to “rolling off” of participants in the labor survey.

 

 
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Falling Oil Prices Not The Reason For America's Economic Woes





While falling oil prices sound like a plausible explanation for the abysmal financial numbers, anyone with a modicum of economic sense (which excludes much of the financial Establishment) can see that it is merely a smokescreen to obfuscate the real culprit.

 
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The Economy In Pictures: We've Seen This All Before





“Are we closer to an economic recession or a continued expansion?” With the Fed hiking interest rates, and talking a tough game of continued economic strength, the risk of a “policy error” has risen markedly in recent months. The markets, falling inflation indicators, and plunging interest rates are all suggesting the same.

 
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