The next round of the great crisis is here. 2008 was just A Crisis… we've just begun THE Crisis.
It’s happening. As expected, dynastic politics is prevailing in campaign 2016. After a tease about as long as Hillary’s, Jeb Bush (aka Jeb!) officially announced his presidential bid last week. Ultimately, the two of them will fight it out for the White House, while the nation’s wealthiest influencers will back their ludicrously expensive gambit. And here’s a hint: don’t bet on Jeb not to make it through the Republican gauntlet of 12 candidates (so far). After all, the really big money’s behind him.
Yes, the clock’s ticking louder, louder, warns the Economist, “only a matter of time before the next recession strikes.” Unfortunately, the “rich world is not ready.” America’s not prepared. You are not ready.
Presented with little comment aside to ask if someone is off-script?
NOONAN: THE CRISIS HAS COMMENCED
SCHAEUBLE SAYS `HELLISH DIFFICULT TASK' ON GREECE
NOONAN: I HAVE SYMPATHY FOR THE GREEK PEOPLE
But always remember, "Greece doesn't matter," which as Mohamed El-Erian explains, is somewhat true, since European leaders have two other existential issues to contend with also...
Here's how it plays out... "no one gets out of this alive"
We cannot forget that crisis is in itself a distraction as well. Whatever pain we do feel tomorrow, or the next day, or the next decade, remember who it was that caused it all: the international banks and their globalist political counterparts. No matter what happens, never be willing to accept a centralized system. No matter how reasonable or rational it might sound amid the terror of fiscal uncertainty, never give the beast what it wants. Refuse to conform to the dialectic. This is the only chance we have left to get back to true prosperity. Once we cross the line into the realm of worldwide institutionalized interdependency, we will never know prosperity or freedom again.
The Fed's QE policies of recent years have, for all intents and purposes told the world that “the dollar is our currency and your problem.” And, in recent years, the dollar has been a genuine problem for a number of emerging countries. Following this traumatic event, and the change in the perception of US stability, China went around the world and invited the likes of Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Korea to shift some of their China trade away from the dollar and into renminbi. China started doing this in 2011 and, as we see it, the renminbi’s attempt to become a trading currency is potentially one of the most important financial developments. Yet no-one seems to care.
Looking at electricity consumption, adjusted or otherwise, things are definitely looking very sluggish in the US economy right now.
It is impossible to wean an economy that relies on debt and leverage for its "growth" of excessive debt and leverage.
Trillions upon trillions in “stimulus” and the FOMC is left, pathetically, fighting for the distinction of “it’s not as bad as it looks.” That would seem to make this the most costly economic age ever conceived, with global implications that are just now starting to be felt as whatever faith was leftover from 2008, wrong or right, wears off all over the world. That is a highly combustible deficiency, since the longer the global economy remains disorientated the more likely it is to experience not just recession but, since this is all still so leveraged (even more poorly this time), something potentially worse.
With levels of investors complacency at extremely high levels, it is a currently "fact" that little can go wrong. There is no recession in sight; the earnings decline was all primarily related to energy companies and most importantly, global Central Banks are continuing to support the financial markets. Of course, maybe it is the last point that should be questioned. If the economy is doing so well, then why are Central Banks still needing to intervene to support the growth? This is equivalent of saying the "the patient is cured, as long as we don't take him off of life support."
What hath Merkel wrought?
Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply. Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars. Neither of these views is correct. The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices.
2/2 If more respected investors had warned about the market in ’07, we might have avoided the crisis in ’08.
— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) June 24, 2015
If one excludes just three items: Obamacare, the "harsh winter", and near record inventory re-stocking in anticipation of a spending deluge that never comes, Q1 GDP would have tumbled nearly 2.0%.