Recession

"Sleepwalking Into An Even Worse Version Of The 1930's Depression"

"Governments around the world do not seem to understand the situation we are facing. In large part, this is happening because economists have built models based on their view of how the world works...We seem to be sleepwalking into an even worse version of the Depression of the 1930s."

Orwell Or Kafka - Ken Rogoff's Crusade Against Cash Continues

"Harvard professor and chess grandmaster Kenneth Rogoff has said some pretty out there stuff before, in his role as self-appointed crusader against cash, but apparently he’s not done yet. In fact, he might just be getting started..."

"This Has Never Happened Before": Goldman Warns Low-Vol Regime Is In Jeopardy

This morning Goldman points out something that has never been observed before: the ratio of VVIX to VIX, or the vol of vol relative to implied volatility as per the VIX, just hit the highest level on record, while the VVIX itself spiked to the highest level since the August 2015 ETFlash crash.

The Logic Of War

"This was the week that the logic of war collided with the illogic of bubbles. So far, the bubble is winning, but that’s about to change..."

Is The Yellen Fed Planning To Sabotage Trump's Presidency?

"The question is: Will the economic backdrop be favorable for Republicans to campaign on the Trump agenda? That remains to be seen. Given the stakes, Donald Trump’s hiring decisions at the Fed could make or break his presidency."

Weekend Reading: On A Cliff's Edge

"...Unfortunately, in the financial markets, irrationality historically prevails and very few investors survive the fall..."

Central Banks Are Hiding The True Price Of Risk

Central banks have put investor risk aversion to sleep: Under their guidance, financial markets are now betting on, and have high confidence in, monetary policy makers successfully fending off any new problems in the economic and financial system.

Beware A Second Korean War

There is no way we could be sure that preventive actions would not set off a second Korean War...