US Industrial Production peaked in November 2014 and remains down almost 2% from those record highs (despite surging stocks). This has never happened without the US economy being in recession in history. While Industrial production headlines met expectations, factory output for March plunged 0.4% - the biggest drop since Feb 2015.
According to a recent study from Pensions & Investments, the top 100 corporate pensions were underfunded by over $250 billion at the end of 2016. Moreover, despite a 250% S&P rally from the 2009 lows, corporate pensions have only managed to improve their funded status from 79.1% in 2008 to 84.5% today.
With a same-store sales decline of 1.6%, the first quarter of 2017 was the fifth consecutive quarter of negative results. The last time the industry experienced a similar period was in 2009 and the first half of 2010, as the economy began recovery following the recession. Only this time the move is in the opposite direction.
"In honor of the Donald’s “Mother of All Bomb” (MOAB) attack on the Hindu Kush mountains Thursday, let me introduce MOAD. I’m referring to the “Mother of All Debt” crises, of course... The opening round is coming when Washington goes into shutdown mode on April 28, which happens to be Day 100 of the Donald’s reign."
"The book is meant to explain how Trump threatens the institutions and traditions that have made America safe and free for 230 years, and I’ll make clear why a Republican Congress might impeach a president of its own party."
"The most amusing part of yesterday’s market move is that anyone was surprised by Trump’s comments. The United States has a President that made his fortune on the back of debt, yet somehow the market thinks Trump will govern in a tea-party-hard-money fashion. Nothing could be further from the truth. He says Yellen is 'not toast'. Well, I disagree."
The market never got cheap in 2009. Maybe it doesn’t need to, but we need to be aware that valuations are at such a high level that a fall to a P/E level that would get us back into the green zone where most bull markets start would be a bear market of biblical proportions. Think down over 60%...