Recession

Fed Finds "The End Of The Road"

The big risk for the Fed has always been the market would “call their bluff”  be unwilling to buy into the “forward guidance.”  It is currently too soon to know for certain but reactions following yesterday’s announcement are not promising.

Janet Whiffs Again - Take Cover Now!

If Donald Trump has even a partial clue about the nation’s monumental economic mess one of his first acts will be to demand Janet Yellen’s resignation. And for sheer incompetence among countless other failings. She was out there again yesterday talking in completely incoherent circles. On the one hand, Yellen robotically insisted that the U.S. economy is moving steadily toward the Keynesian nirvana of full employment. At the same time, she struck a profile in cowardice that was downright pathetic.

European Peripheral Bond Risk Explodes: Forget Brexit, "Now It's Italy's Turn"

If there was any doubt that Brexit was "relevant" then the surges in European peripheral bond risk, despite massive bond-buying by The ECB, should send shivers up and down the status quo huggers that are shrugging the referendum decision off because "central banks will provide liquidity." However, it's not just The UK that EU officials need to worry about, as The Globalist notes, Germany will have to change its policies if it wants to avoid exit of other countries from the eurozone.

Initial Jobless Claims Still Decoupled From Hypocritical Fed's "Experimental" Labor Market Index Collapse

Having been told yesterday by Janet Yellen that The Fed's Labor Market Indicator is merely "experimental" - contradicting her Aug 2014 exuberance over the index - we thought it worth highlighting just how decoupled the nation's labor market data really is. Initial claims rose to 277 from 264k, slightly higher (worse) than the expected 270k but remain near the best in 40 year, as LMCI crashes to 6 year lows...

Global Stocks Continue To Plunge As Central Banks Disappoint, Brexit Looms

Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, as U.S. equities are on track to extend losses for a sixth day.  Europe's Stoxx 600 fell to a four-month low, sliding 1% for its sixth decline in seven days, and U.S. crude retreated for a sixth day in the longest losing streak since February. Bond yields sank to records in Germany, Australia after Japan as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said next week’s U.K. vote on European Union membership was a factor in the decision to hold interest rates steady. The Yen surged more than 2% as the Bank of Japan refrained from adding any new stimulus,

The Vanity Of Central Bankers And The Common Sense Rule

Yellen's recent indignation at (and manipulation of the inputs to) The Taylor Rule, "gives the appearance that one is changing the rule or the inputs to the rule to get an answer. I do not think that reason would go over well in Congressional testimony," exclaimed the rule's creator. And yet, so many of Taylor’s peers in the economic community continue to feed policymakers’ penchant for contorting the world into a fantastical one that only exists in those leaders’ dreams. Is it any wonder so many of today’s leaders in central banking sport God complexes?

"The Politics Of Fairness Have Created The Economics Of Hopelessness"

"We’re following the European model which is to maintain the status quo: Don’t let competition damage or disrupt existing businesses. The politics of fairness create anti competitiveness...What we really need is the politics of hope: Let’s figure out how to make it easier to start a business."

16% Of Europe's IG Corporate Bonds Now Yield Below 0%

In addition to negative yielding sovereign debt, it's now time to also look at corporate debt, because the amount of euro-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds with negative yields has tripled over the last six weeks, a move accelerated by their inclusion in the European Central Bank's quantitative easing programme. Specifically around 16%, or 440 billion euros, of the 2.8 trillion euros of these bonds now yield less than zero, up from around 5% at the start of May, according to Tradeweb data.

Rant-Of-The-Day: The Low Interest-Rate Fallacy

“While valuations may be high compared to historical averages, low interest rates justify those valuations.” - Oft-Repeated blather on Twitter. Let me warn you now this will not end well.

Keynesian Triumph: Americans Are Broke

So here we are. After decades of what essentially could be called a new “Industrial Revolution” with the advent of computers and the internet, the US government has managed through its monetary authorities and through its other policies to decimate savings and leave millions of Americans financially vulnerable. It has been no accident.