Recession

Gundlach: "You Should Be Raising Cash Literally Today"

"Volatility is a trade that's made a lot of money and its very very crowded, which suggests to me the days of low volatility are numbered. If you're a trader or a speculator I think you should be raising cash today literally today. If you're an investor you can easily sit through a seasonally weak period."

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike But Here Are "The Two Most Interesting Questions"

While conceding that a hike is guaranteed, Goldman notes that two issues should make this week's FOMC meeting particularly interesting. First, will Fed officials alter their policy views in response to the increasingly different signals that both sides of the mandate are sending about the urgency of further tightening? Second, will the press conference provide some clarity on what the next tightening step following the June hike will be?

Is This The Scariest Chart For Central Banks?

"Monetary policy has left the allocation into risky assets stretched at very high prices in a modest recovery with major structural issues still unresolved. The efficacy of existing policy tools in the future seems greatly diminished."

A Record Number Of Market Participants Says The Market Is Overvalued, Surpassing 1999 Bubble Highs

The latest monthly Fund Managers (FMS) survey from Bank of America is out, and continuing the trend noted in previous months when the number of active managers who said that stocks are overvalued hit the highest in nearly two decades, the latest version reveals that the number of respondents saying that equities are overvalued has just hit a record high, surpassing the all time high set during the 1999 bubble.

Bill Gross: "All Markets Are Increasingly At Risk"

"You have the potential for low asset returns in which the now successful strategy of “making money with money” is seriously threatened. How soon this takes place is of course the investor’s dilemma, and the policymakers’ conundrum. But don’t be mesmerized by the blue skies created by central bank QE and near perpetually low interest rates. All markets are increasingly at risk."

Frontrunning: June 13

  • The Snowballing Power of the VIX, Wall Street’s Fear Index (WSJ)
  • Beneath the Uneasy Peace Between Donald Trump and Janet Yellen (WSJ)
  • Senators to Query Sessions on Russia, Comey (BBG)
  • U.S. lawmakers to probe Tillerson on Russia, diplomacy budget cuts (Reuters)
  • Under pressure to soften Brexit, PM May to meet Northern Irish 'kingmakers' (Reuters)

Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed "Peak Oil"

"The new crisis can be expected to be 'Peak Economy' instead of Peak Oil. Peak Economy is likely to have a far different shape than Peak Oil - a much sharper downturn. It is likely to affect many aspects of the economy at once. The financial system will be especially affected. "

Steen Jakobsen: 60% Probability Of Recession In The Next 18 Months

"The 'credit impulse' -- defined as net new credit to GDP -- has gone negative in the world for the first time since the start of the Great Recession...the most likely period for [the recession] to happen would be end of this year because, of course, Trump has not delivered."