Recession

Greece Is Now A Full-Blown Humanitarian Crisis - In 9 Charts

The people of Greece are facing further years of economic hardship following a Eurozone agreement over the terms of a third bailout. The deal included more tax rises and spending cuts, despite the Syriza government coming to power promising to end what it described as the "humiliation and pain" of austerity. With the country having already endured years of economic contraction since the global downturn, The BBC asks, just how does Greece's ordeal compare with other recessions and how have the lives of the country's people been affected?

5 Things To Ponder: Beach Reading

While the markets have improved since the "resolution" of the Greek crisis, in my opinion we would have expected substantially more given the overall "angst" that the situation was generating. Yet, the market remains in a bearish consolidation pattern. Furthermore, relative strength, momentum and volume remain a detraction from the "bullishness" of this week's "crisis resolution rally."

The Curse Of The Euro: Money Corrupted, Democracy Busted

The preposterous Gong Show in Brussels over the weekend was the financial “Ben Tre” moment for the Euro and ECB. That is, it was the moment when the Germans - imitating the American military on that ghastly morning in February 1968 - set fire to the Eurozone in order to save it. In short, Greece will become an outright debtors’ colony and its government will function as page-boy legislators for the Troika occupiers. Needless to say, political and social upheaval will erupt when the full extent of the Tsipras surrender becomes evident, and the resulting political contagion will spread throughout the length and breadth of Europe as Greece implodes. In due course, the euro will collapse and the baleful Keynesian money printers’ regime in Frankfurt will be repudiated and dismantled. But not before European democracy has a brush with death, and European prosperity is extinguished for a generation.

Stock Bubble And Its Buyback Genesis Suddenly Vulnerable

Having now passed the anniversary of the “rising dollar”, it is interesting to see the related and continued effects on the stock bubble(s). As should be obvious by now, stock buybacks, funded via corporate bonds and loosely categorized C&I loans, are responsible for the post-QE3 nearly uninterrupted rise. Repurchases are forming a separate “liquidity” conduit, indirect leverage if you will, which has already started to fray. Various broader “market” indices have diverged, starting with the Russell 2000 in early 2014 (with the economic slowdown that was supposed to be an anomaly of weather). At the very least it might imply that the central bank paradigm that lasted since the middle of 2012 has greatly eroded or even ended.

3 Things: Retail, NFIB, Divergences

As with all data, none of these data points suggests that the economy, or the markets, will immediately plunge into a recessionary contraction. However, what is important to consider is that many of these data points are now converging and suggesting that risk is more elevated now than at any point since the financial crisis. It is at least worth thinking about.

"The Stock Market Is Too Important To Leave To The Vagaries Of An Actual Market"

The stock market is just too important to leave to the vagaries of an actual market now. Too much depends on good-looking numbers now. It must be guided and controlled, or else the stilts on which our global financial system balances become shakier and more visible. The market must be rendered increasingly meaningless simply because it's too meaningful to our current economic system.

White House Cuts 2015 GDP Outlook By 33%

Despite President Obama's hubris over the 'recovery', his crowing about the jobs record, and his insistence that while "there's more to be done," everything is awesome, The White House just took the meat-cleaver to its US economic growth forecasts...cutting 2015 growth from 3% to 2%. That was not all though as their forecasts see no recession until at least 2025, unemployment under 5.0% for at least the next decade, stable inflation for 10 years, and last but not least - a 3-month T-Bill rate of over 3% within the next few years.

The Shocking 2008 AIG Report On "Empire Europe" And The Death Of Greece

"What Europe Wants" - to use global issues as excuses to extend its power:

  • environmental issues: increase control over member countries; advance idea of global governance
  • terrorism: use excuse for greater control over police and judicial issues; increase extent of surveillance
  • global financial crisis: kill two birds (free market; Anglo-Saxon economies) with one stone (Europe-wide regulator; attempts at global financial governance)
  • EMU: create a crisis to force introduction of “European economic government”

Italy – Non-Performing Loans Hit A New Record High

The real danger to the euro area probably doesn’t emanate from Greece, but from two of its heavyweights, namely France and Italy. If one thinks things properly through, Greece is really a side-show. The euro zone remains full of accidents waiting to happen and some of them have the potential to become truly gigantic accidents.

Recession Watch - Industrial Output Growth Plunges To 5 Year Lows

Industrial Production rose just 1.54% YoY, the weakest growth since Feb 2010 and flashing a major recessionary red light. Utilities were the biggest contributor, as Manufacturing output ended June unchanged (against expectations of a modest 0.1% rise), missing for the 2nd month in a row. Notably vehicle production tumbled 5.5% MoM. Not exactly the end to Q2 that GDP hockey-stick'rs will be wanting.

Frontrunning: July 15

  • Tsipras Braves Parliament on Aid as Greek Outlook Worsens (BBG)
  • European markets rise before Yellen speech, Greek vote (Reuters)
  • China’s Growth Beats Economists’ Forecast as Stimulus Kicks In (BBG)
  • China stocks drop again, positive data shrugged off (Reuters)
  • Yellen intensifies Republican outreach amid Fed probe, Senate bill (Reuters)
  • Iran deal holds both promise and peril for Hillary Clinton (Reuters)
  • Iranians Party Into the Night as Khamenei Backs Accord (BBG)

Chinese Stock Plunge Resumes With 1200 Stocks Halted Limit Down; Yellen, Greek Elections On Deck

Just when the Chinese plunge protection team (and "arrest shortie" task force) seemed to be finally getting "malicious selling" under control, first we saw a crack yesterday when the composite broke the surge of the past three days as a result of yet another spike in margin debt funded purchases, but it was last night's reminder that "good news is bad news" that really confused the stock trading farmers and grandmas, which goalseeked Chinese economic "data" beat across the board, with Q2 GDP coming solidly above expectations at 7.0%, and retail sales and industrial production both beating, but in the process raising doubts that the PBOC will continue supporting stocks.