Recession

White House Admits Economies Of European Allies Crippled By Russian Sanctions

Overnight it was none other than the White House itself which finally admitted that the entire brilliant idea of collapsing the Russian economy by way of sanctions across the western world, ended up hurting European nations (i.e., US partners) who had no choice but to "sacrifice their own economies."

Awkward: NY Fed Debunks Myth Of "First-Quarter Residual Seasonality"

Steve Liesman is quaking in his reporter's boots this morning as the SF Fed & BEA's credibility-crushing "double-seasonal-adjustment" thesis is crushed into statistical neverland by the The NY Fed. A study by economists at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve did not find significant statistical evidence for such distortions on the aggregate GDP level, despite meteoroconomist Joe Lavorgna's assertion that Q1 grew 1.2% thanks to the magic of made-up numbers. As The NY Fed concludes, in a tone that suggests "sigh, again, "it will not be surprising if the question of residual seasonality comes up again next year when first-quarter growth numbers are announced."

Capex Recovery Is Worst In History, BofAML Says

"In the United States, it took 18 quarters (4.5 years) before fixed business investment regained its pre-recession peak, in chain-volume terms. That compares with an average of just five quarters before business investment recovered to its peak level prior to the onset of previous post-War recessions; previously, it had never taken longer than three years for that milestone to be attained."

"The Job Numbers Literally Do Not Add Up"

The last time the Establishment Survey was as robust as the past year or so was 1999; then, the average productivity was 3.7%! That number actually makes sense intuitively, since businesses would have good reason to go on a hiring spree. Porting that to the current period, as in the mathematical construction of productivity here, would mean, holding output constant, that total hours in the past five quarters would have been not +2.7% but -1.7%. These numbers literally do not add up.

Confused Economists Ponder Missing Wage Growth "Mystery"

Although we solved the "mystery" of America's missing wage growth some three months ago, the central planner/ Ivory Tower crowd is still confused. WSJ has taken the time to lay out nine prevailing theories from some of the country’s ‘finest’ economic minds...

The Incredibly Bearish Bull Market

Currently, there are things occurring that are very troublesome, and in more normal times, would likely already have investors heading for cover. However, in today's liquidity fueled, Central Bank supported environment, that has yet to be the case. The reason was best described recently by Dr. Robert Shiller "I call this the 'new normal' boom ó it's a funny boom in asset prices because it's driven not by the usual exuberance but by an anxiety." What happens next is only a guess. However, historically, it hasn't been the outcome that investors were hoping for. But then again, maybe "bearish bull" isn't as much of an oxymoron as it is just a warning.

Sprott Money's picture

Despite the sputtering economy, despite report after report that indicates that global economies are slowing down, despite the historic amount of money printing that has done little to nothing to fix these issues, there are those out there who believe that the solution to all our problems is more of the same. More money printing.

40 Million People Will Be Out Of Work Next Year, OECD Warns

Perhaps the most disturbing, and factual (unlike the IMF's forecast of Greek 2022 debt/GDP), finding is that unemployment in the OECD region has fallen only 1 per cent since its 2010 peak. In other words, by 2016, the group warned, 40 million people will be out of work, 7.5 million more than immediately before the crisis. 40 million angry people, with little hope of professional realization and lots of free time. Is it surprising why in recent months not a day passes without some mass violence event breaking out somewhere in the world.

Looking For The Next Big One: Part 1, Orderly Or Not?

"...recent indications have darkened the probability spectrum to the point that it may actually be worth examining a worst case scenario. My gut sense is that there is indeed a recession forming, and one that looks worse by the month, so there are numerous relevant factors that demand attention the greater the potential for it. That starts with leverage and any transmission from finance to the economy."

F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

FTW (For Those Who Say I Just Don't Get It... Get This!) There seems a shift showing itself in dramatic fashion unseen since the 2008 financial meltdown. Not only are some key players, or institutions beginning to notice some troubling signs; but rather; those very signs that everyone was told 'won’t or shouldn’t happen', not only are, they’re starting to rear their ugly heads in much greater frequency.

3 Things: Autos, Old People, Buybacks

"The elderly dependency ratio is in the early stages of a relentless rise that doesn't hit an interim peak until around 2036, over two decades from now." The "structural shift" in the dynamics that drove the economy and financial markets in the 80's and 90's will not likely exist again for quite some time. Of course, if this was not the case, would we still be needing massive Central Bank interventions to support global economies and markets? Meh? What could possibly go wrong? [sarcasm alert]