Recession

Why "Supply & Demand" Doesn't Work For Oil

The traditional view of the impact of low oil prices seems to be, "It is just another cycle." Or, "The cure for low prices is low prices." We are doubtful that either of these views is right.

How To Trade The Fed's Upcoming "Policy Error" In Three Parts

"... the next 12-18 months will be divided into three periods corresponding to the three distinct regimes of market dynamics. They can be summarized by the following modes of the curve: short-term tactical bear flatteners on the back of a Fed liftoff story, followed by volatile bear steepeners of the “taper-tantrum” type around mid-year, and a bull-flattening finale as structural factors deem rate hikes to be a policy mistake."

The Closing Of The Global Economy

"The political left is happy to see people cross borders but would gladly restrict the flow of capital and goods. The political right is happy to see capital and goods cross borders but would gladly build a fence to restrict the flow of people. I’m afraid that the compromise might be to restrict people, capital and goods."

A Furious Ralph Nader Calls Out The Fed As "Tribune To Plutocratic, Crony Capitalism"; Janet Yellen Responds

In his letter, reproduced below, Nader bashes  the "tediously over-dramatic indecision as to when interest rates will be raised"; demands that the Fed not "lecture us about the Fed not being “political.” When you are the captives of the financial industry, led by the too-big-to-fail banks, you are generically “political" and - in short - wants to know when the Fed will put the interests of Main Street over those of "plutocratic, crony capitalism for which the Federal Reserve has long been a leading Tribune."

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Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve has been telegraphing to markets that they are going to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month at its December Fed Meeting.

Argentina Throws Out The Peronists In "Historic" Presidential Election

"Today is a historic day. It’s the changing of an era. We can live in an Argentina without poverty, where we can all aspire to have our own homes with running water and a sewage system." 

"The question is whether this is going to be something like the rebirth of Argentina or another failed dream that people get excited about, but then they can’t overcome the challenges.”

Frontrunning: November 23

  • Brussels on Edge as Lockdown Continues (WSJ)
  • Stocks Pare Decline as Crude Oil Erases Drop on Saudi Comments (BBG)
  • Italy’s Eni Plans to Pump Arctic Oil, After Others Abandon the Field (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Decline as Economists Say GDP to Be Revised Higher (BBG)
  • Why the Housing Rebound Hasn’t Lifted the U.S. Economy Much (WSJ)
  • Argentina Fever Is Back for Investors as Kirchner Rival Triumphs (BBG)

Global Stocks Fall For First Time In Six Days As Commodity Rout Spills Over Into Stocks

As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.

Equities vs 'Everything Else' - Deutsche Bank Warns "One Of These Sides Has To Be Wrong"

The hardest questions we are trying to reconcile here are how is that possible to see all these signs of weakness under the surface – including weak commodities, tightening credit, retrenching consumer spending – being balanced by very strong equity markets and upbeat employment picture. One of these sides has to be wrong in its assessment of the current macro environment, and seeing both of them extending well into the future appears unlikely to us.

The Long, Cold Winter Ahead

With enough monetary deception anything’s possible. But, nonetheless, gravity still exists.