Recession

Why Did Schauble Almost Use The "Nuclear Option" - Tim Geithner Explains

"The idea was that with Greece out, Germany would be more likely to provide the financial support the eurozone needed because the German people would no longer perceive aid to Europe as a bailout for the Greeks. At the same time, a Grexit would be traumatic enough that it would help scare the rest of Europe into giving up more sovereignty to a stronger banking and fiscal union."

After "Deal", Here's What's Next For Greece

Now that Greece has capitulated and offered up its sovereignty in what can only be described as an unconditional surrender to Berlin and Brussels, here's what's next for the country, the government, and the Greek people.

Deal Struck Following Total Capitulation By Tsipras: Market Awaits Greek Reaction To Draconian Deal Terms

Just around 9am CET, after a 17-hour mammoth all-night session, Greece did manage to cobble together a "deal" if one may call this latest embarrassing can-kicking that, which was nothing short of total capitulation by Tsipras. As part of the deal, Greece "surrendered to European demands for immediate action to qualify for up to 86 billion euros ($95 billion) of aid Greece needs to stay in the euro" in the words of Bloomberg.

Peter Schiff On The Big Picture: The Party's Ending

While the party in the 1990s ended badly, the festivities currently underway may end in outright disaster. The party-goers may not just awaken with hangovers, but with missing teeth, no memories, and Mike Tyson's tiger in their hotel room.

Janet Yellen Explains How Everything Is Awesome (But Not Awesome Enough) - Live Feed

"It will be appropriate at some point this year...to raise the Fed funds rate and normalize monetary policy," Yellen recently explained but given recent comments from Fed heads and the FOMC Minutes, it appears the real meme is "everything is awesome, we promise and as long as it stays that way we will hike rates just a little bit, stand back and watch the implosion, then stand ready to step back in to save the world... oh, and if Greece, China, US Shale, or LatAm blow up contagiously, we won't normalize policy ever again." Yellen speaks on the US economic outlook at The City Club of Cleveland.

Here Is The Flashing Red Light In The Inventory-Sales Ratio

Recession watchers stay tuned... Wholesale Sales rose a mere 0.3% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.9% rise) but sales tumbled 3.4% YoY - the most since the financial crisis. Hopers will look at the rise in inventories (+0.8% MoM vs +0.3% exp.) as GDP positive but at some point the hope for a sales pick up fades and inventory stuffing stops (Sales -3.4% YoY, Inventories +5.0% YoY). But what should be worrying everyone right now is the inventory-to-sales ratio holding at recession levels.

Snow In The Summer? Card Data Shows Unexpected, "Disappointing" Drop In June Retail Spending

After staging another dramatic slump early in the year, which was once again blamed on snow to offset what was supposed to have been an "unambiguously good" for US spending gas price slump, retail sales finally picked up in May, laying out hope that the June print and onward, would be "good enough" to suggest that the US economy is recovering, some 6 years after the "recession ended" mind you, and is on track for a Fed rate hike.

Euro-Skeptic William Hague: "I Was Right In 1998, And I Am Right Today"

"Chirac and many others were appalled as I told them in 1998... joining the euro would exacerbate recession in some countries, and that some would find themselves 'trapped in a burning building with no exits' - a phrase that brought me a fair amount of controversy and abuse... I hope the eurozone leaders meeting today will remember that those of us who criticised the euro at its creation were correct in our forecasts. Otherwise they risk adding to the monumental errors of judgment, analysis and leadership made by their predecessors in 1998."

A Union Divided: "More Europe" Means "More Germany"

The tense division in Europe's union are becoming increasingly evident. Between Greece's "no" vote, yesterday's EU Parliament outbursts, and today's German parliament commentary it is clear that, as Bloomberg reports, the centerpiece of Merkel’s cure for Europe - fiscal retrenchment - has catalyzed her in the eyes of many as despite her calm but firm entreaties, an economic bully. “The lesson of this crisis is more Europe, not less Europe,” Angela Merkel said in 2012 as the integrity of the region’s monetary union was threatened by financial instability, but many, like Greece, have come to understand "more Europe" means something different: "more Germany."

The Fed's Window For Hiking Rates Continues To Close

The Fed understands that economic cycles do not last forever, and we are closer to the next recession than not. While raising rates would likely accelerate a potential recession and a significant market correction, from the Fed's perspective it might be the 'lesser of two evils. Being caught at the "zero bound" at the onset of a recession leaves few options for the Federal Reserve to stabilize an economic decline. The problem is that they may have missed their window to get there.