Recession

Last week, the assorted regulatory freaks were busy patting themselves on the back, and our intrepid printer-in-chief himself made the rounds Thursday morning with appearance no. 2 of his Whip Deflation Now tour. Stay tuned to learn which deceased Fed Governor stated at the Sep *2002* FOMC meeting in no uncertain terms that there was in fact a housing bubble underway.

An autopsy on the Failures of the Obama administration. A major error by devoting one third of its massive $870 billion stimulus program to tax cuts, which in this environment, will get saved, not spent. Easy money is creating new bubbles around the world, especially in China (FXI) and commodities, that will only end in tears.

We present an exclusive summary of all the Paulson & Co. portfolio facts, figures, strategy, ins and outs, and Paulson's discussions with former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on the "the relationship between the monetary base, the money supply, inflation and gold prices." Must read for everyone.

Summer vacation is over and things in Europe may soon start rocking and rolling all over again. Not only is France about to experience its first 24 hour general strike this Tuesday in a long time, which will likely remind everyone else in Europe (hint Greece and Ireland) that austerity is the new normal across the Atlantic and the 14th annual monthly salary is not going to come back just because nobody is talking about it, but as the FT reports Europe needs to issue double the amount of debt in September compared to August. From the FT: "Eurozone governments will try to raise €80bn ($103bn) in September compared with new bond issuance of €43bn in August. Spain is expected to attempt to borrow €7bn in September compared with €3.5bn in August, according to ING Financial Markets." The dramatic ramp up in issuance is forcing the FT to speculate that "some of the weaker economies could fail to raise the amount of money they need as eurozone governments attempt to issue double the amount of debt this month compared with August." For all those who have been waiting for the perfect storm in Europe to finally develop the time of waiting may be over.

Greece's exit from the eurozone would be the "worst possible option", Europe's central bank chief said at the weekend amid concerns over the debt-stricken country's ability to pull itself out of crisis. Will Greece default and will this cause yet another global crisis?

Yesterday we presented Dylan Grice's thoughts on why economists and their opinions should be summarily dismissed as nothing but mere noise on the steep downward slope of a series of failed "authoritarian" policy decisions, which seek to validate one false choice after another, by presenting a hypothetical and fallacious counter-outcome as a certain reality (just consider the "apocalypse" we would be living in if Goldman had failed: of course, there is no justification for this except for what Bernanke et al claim is the one true alternative reality based on nothing but their own conflicted interests), which does nothing but discredit the "science" of economics more and more with each passing day. Yet in the grand scheme of things economists are merely pawns in the hands of the landed elite: the financial system set only on perpetuating the status quo of capital and wealth reallocation from the lower classes onto itself (until there is eventually nothing left), and a government whose only prerogative is to usurp ever more control and authority, until the entire system is one of central planning in economics, social affairs, religion, and every aspect of people's daily lives, all the while pretending to operate under the guise of a democracy, which, at least in America, died long ago. Today, we present the observations of Bill Buckler from his Privateer report, which picks up where Grice left off and demonstrates why one must not only never rely on economists but on form of "authority" in general. Putting it all together is Buckler's close analysis at the glue that makes it all possible: the Federal Reserve, also known as the fourth branch of government, and the entity that provides the endless funding for all of the system's failed policies. As Buckler points out, any reversion to a system that follows the constitutional precepts of the founding fathers will need to do away with the Fed first and foremost, as "the issue is not the political will of the US government to go on spending beyond its means, it is the political will of the rest of the world to go on accepting the unworkable global system indefinitely. They will not do it." In other words, in the step leading up to the last and most important defection in the global prisoner's dilemma, it is up to the American people to take the necessary step to restore the systemic balance (which will happen regardless eventually, only in a far more violent fashion). Everything else that happens on a day to day basis is completely irrelevant.

One of the most peculiar observations of this depression started in December 2007 is that while the total US population has increased by 6.8 million from 303.3 million to just over 310 million in July 2010, over the same 32 month period, the civilian labor force has declined from 153.9 million to 153.6 million. This makes zero sense, as all those aging into working age, or immigrating into the US need to find some job or some other paid activity (either legally or illegally). But let's assume that due to discouragement with economic conditions people simply refuse to look for jobs. The reality is that eventually all those people will come storming into the job market, once the economy recovers sufficiently. Which is why we make an estimate of what the "fair value" of the civilian labor pool is based on the historical average participation rate of 50.4% (as a percentage of total population). Backing into the cumulative population growth by this estimate, means that as of July 2010, the labor force has really grown by 3.4 million, once the one-time adjustment of a "recession" is eliminated (and after all that's what all modern economist claim right - that recessions are merely one-time blips on the road to perpetual Keynesian growth). In other words, the cumulative differential between the labor force as reported, and as calculated has hit an all time record of 3.7 million: this is a number that has to be added to the 7.6 million directly tabulated unemployed to get a sense of just how many jobs have been lost assuming a reversion to the mean for the US economy. In other words, after eliminating the statistical voodoo of the BEA and the Census Bureau, the US has lost just over 11.2 million jobs since the start of the recession.

Recently there has been a surge in cherry picked employment charts highlighting that the Obama administration has done a great job in rescuing the economy. The premise goes: after dropping to as much as 700K+ jobs lost per month, the administration has managed to pull off a miraculous recovery and now we are riding on a wave of 8 consecutive "private jobs" beats in a row. This argument is so shallow we won't even bother with it. Perhaps the "economists" who espouse this theory will be so kind in their next iteration of their charts to overlay the monthly US debt issuance side by side with the jobs number. Because you see if you drown the economy in unrepayable debt, while using transfer payments to fund the digging of trenches by every man, woman and child who makes up the labor pool, then yes - you may get 0%, or even negative, unemployment overnight. Will it bankrupt the country (even faster)? Why, of course. But whoever said those who discuss politics subjectively ever care about the long-term implications of reality. So in the vein of sharing pretty charts, here is one: we show job losses since the beginning of the Recession (excluding for the impact of census hiring), juxtaposed to the natural growth rate of the Labor Pool (and not the artificial one, which according to the BLS is the same now as it was a year ago). We discover that i) 7.6 Million absolute jobs have been lost since the beginning of the Recession; ii) that a record 10.5 Million jobs (and you won't find this statistic anywhere), have been lost when factoring in for the natural growth of the Labor Pool of 90-100K a month (we use the lower estimate, which also happens to be the CBO's estimate), and that iii) assuming we expect to return to the jobs baseline level as of December 2007 (or an unemployment rate of 5%) by the end of Obama's second term (and we make the big assumption there will be a second term), Obama needs to create 230,000 jobs each and every month consecutively from September through November 2016 in order for the total jobs lost to be put back into the labor force, and that iv) an optimistic (if more realistic) projection of jobs returning to the work force means the return the baseline will occur in 2019, some 7 years after the start of the last recession. The point of these observations is not to cast political blame on either party: we are in this predicament due to the combined stupidity, corruption and greed of both parties. The question is how do we get out of here. And unfortunately for all those hoping that a return to a normal, baseline past is possible, please forget it (i.e., the New Normal is really real), at least for the next 7 years. This also means that any charting, technical analysis and other "reversion to the mean" approaches of forecasting the future will all end up sorely lacking and misrepresenting the final outcome.

The August jobs report provided a ray of hope, but much more needs to be done to repair the devastation caused by the financial crisis.

Your one stop shop for the week's summary of bullish and bearish events and news.

Since the beginning of the recession/depression there have been over 7.6 million total job losses (not just private jobs, which is all that the government is suddenly focusing on. What next: emphasizing the dramatic surge in janitors and trash collectors?). So which occupations are the biggest winners and losers over the past 33 months? Curiously, the split in job losses is spread about evenly between manufacturing and service jobs, with the top 2 biggest absolute losers are construction and manufacturing occupations. Things are not better in services either, as the bulk of professional segments have lost hundreds of thousands, with two exceptions: healthcare and education. Of course, the one sector that has never seen cumulative job losses in the recession is the government - for state and federal employees the recession has not only ended, but it never started.

Ever get the feeling that the Bureau of Truth is not being completely truthful? Feel like the ADP is to the NFP like the ISM to the regional Fed Surveys, and as the surging Mfg ISM employment diffusion index is to the plunging Service ISM employment diffusion index (i.e., both can not possibly be correct)? You are not alone. David Rosenberg summarizes which recent data releases are so blatantly incomprehensible, one wonder when the government will announce an AXA Rosenberg-like computer glitch and say all its data for the past 12 months has been compromised. Either that, or we await the introduction of the Birth/Death adjustment to every single data series released in America imminently.

Another perspective on the NFP numbers.

There are permabulls, and then there is Jim O'Neill. The Man U fan explains why, after it has been consistently discredited, people do not believe in decoupling: "because they are not prepared to get it." And just because people are really stupid and just don't get it, O'Neill pitches Indonesia, Turkey, Nigeria and Bangladesh, and, oh yes, Iran, as the "Next 11" once again. Because, gasp, 9 of them are up year to date. We wonder if Jim recalls what happened to the Russian market in 2008. Somehow we think his selective memory may have shut that one out. Also, it turns out Jim O'Neill does not appreciate fan mail bourne out of "weird blog site" commentary: "I received quite a few incoming hostile emails in response, and references to some weird blog sites who apparently opine on my views." Oops.

• Is this the reason for Japan's unwillingness to intervene: Japan Said to View U.S. Opposition as Yen Intervention Obstacle (Bloomberg) - Japan views probable U.S. opposition to intervention in the foreign-exchange market to address the appreciating yen as an obstacle to taking unilateral action, according to three Japanese government officials.
• LOL European Stress Tests: Lenders Shunned on Stress Tests Doubts (FT)
• LOL v2: White House: No Second Stimulus Being Considered (Reuters)
• East coast braces for Hurricane Earl (WSJ)
• French government vows to face down pension strike (Reuters)
• Chinese Funds Post Huge Losses in H1 (Caixin, h/t Mark)
• Bundesbank Asks German President to Dismiss Sarrazin After Race Comments (Business Week)
• Does Grandma Cause Unemployment? (Barrons)