Recession

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring? Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis...

Ten days ago, Delta CEO Richard Anderson sent shockwaves through the aviation industry when he announced he had just purchased a used Boeing 777 for the paltry price of $7.7 million. Here is the punchline: Boeing’s list price for a new 777-200ER is $277.3 million, meaning Delta is buying a used 777 at a price 97.2% lower than the value of a new 777.

With the launch of "The Big Short" movie (assuredly infuriating many Americans with its "dangerous for the establishment" expose of the greed, stupidity, hubris, and arrogance of Wall Street bankers gone wild), Dr. Michael Burry's infamous UCLA commencement speech has much to offer... "In this age of infinite distraction... when the entitled elect themselves, the party accelerates, and the brutal hangover is inevitable." 15 minutes well spent with a self-described 'chicken-little' who was "just trying to figure it all out."

"If, as seems possible, the ECB will increase, in H1 2016, the scale of its monthly asset purchases from €60bn to, say, €75bn, and if these additional purchases are concentrated on public debt, the euro area will benefit from a ‘backdoor’ helicopter money drop –something long overdue."

"Oil and gas sector bankruptcies have reached quarterly levels last seen in the Great Recession. At least nine U.S. oil and gas companies, accounting for more than $2 billion in debt, have filed for bankruptcy so far in the fourth quarter."

It was just 10 months ago that Boston smashed its all time snowfall record, and the US was blanketed in freezing weather from west to east as the Polar Vortex unleashed cold air for the second year in a row. It was so cold, the GDP report for the winter period had to be double-seasonally adjusted as the sharp economic slowdown simply did not make sense otherwise. Fast forward to today when according to AccuWeather, the east coast is celebrating Christmas with the warmest weather on record.

"By now, it’s an all-too-familiar drill. After an extended period of extraordinary monetary accommodation, the US Federal Reserve has begun the long march back to normalization. A majority of financial market participants applaud this strategy. In fact, it is a dangerous mistake."

The poor are getting poorer but the rich, it appears, are no longer getting richer. With apartment vacancies at 9-month highs, Bloomberg reports that Manhattan's luxury-home market is rapidly losing its luster. Prices have been dropping every month since February, when they reached their highest point on record, and, as one analyst notes, "the downward trend in that decline hasn’t abated, and we haven’t seen it wavering in any way."

The world didn’t completely fall apart in 2015, but it is undeniable that an immense amount of damage was done to the U.S. economy. So don’t be fooled by all the happy talk coming from Barack Obama and the mainstream media.  When you look at the cold, hard numbers, they tell a completely different story.  The following are 58 facts about the U.S. economy from 2015 that are almost too crazy to believe...

Every year, Pew Research Center looks back at the most memorable facts that illustrate important trends shaping our world. From faltering faith in government to the decline of Christians in America and from increased racial tensions to the shrinking American middle-class, here are some of our most striking findings of 2015.

Here’s an early Christmas present. It’s nothing new. And we didn’t spend a lot of money on it. But it’s the thought that counts. Here goes... When you go to buy a stock, you might ask yourself: Is this stock likely to go up? But that’s the wrong question. You don’t know whether it will go up or not. No point pretending. The right question: Has this stock gone down enough?

The news out of Canada - and especially out of Alberta, the heart of the country's oil patch - has just gone from disturbing to downright terrifying. 

"The best thing [about Putin] is that he knows how to maintain relations. He has a special strength to sacrifice for the relations. It is rarely found."

Now we know precisely why management, not just BBBY's but every other company, was so eager to engage in record buybacks. Without them, the stock would have been at today's price long, long ago.How many buybacks? The chart below shows the average buyback price since the last time BBBY traded at $49. The answer: $67.44.

At the end of the day, the Fed led central bank money printing spree of the past two decades resulted in what is functionally a massive dollar short. Once the Fed stopped expanding its balance sheet when QE officially ended in October 2014, it was only a matter of time before all the “near-dollars” of the world would come under enormous downward pressure in the FX markets. Our Keynesian witch doctors believe that sinking currencies are a wonderful thing, of course. They claim making your country poorer is a good way to stimulate export growth and a virtuous cycle of spending and growth. But there is another thing. It is also a good way to generate capital flight and the ensuing chaos that creates.