Recession

August 15th - The Date Which Will Live In Monetary Infamy

August 15, 2016 will mark the 45th anniversary of President Nixon’s decision to close the gold window. U.S. citizens and the government are now beholden to the consequences of years of accumulated debt and weak productivity growth that have occurred since that day. Now, seven years after the end of the financial crisis and recession, these consequences are in plain sight. The Fed finds themselves crippled under an imprudent zero interest rate policy and unable to raise interest rates due to fear of stoking another crisis.

Global Stock Surge Continues As "Investors Look To Central Banks For Support"

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."

Is A New Banking Crisis Imminent? Recent Rise In Delinquency Rates Is Shocking

In 2006 it was exactly twelve months after delinquency rates bottomed that the recession began. If the same period applies, we are due for a recession. In the first quarter of the Great Recession in 2008, delinquency rates were only 1.45%. We are already above that level. The fact that increasing loan delinquency coincides with mountains of debt maturing in 2016 and 2017 is a topic for next time.

Kuroda Is Trapped As The BOJ Can't Ease Any Further: Here's Why

While the BOJ is reportedly meeting with the government today, it’s going to be addressing a situation that just got more difficult with a poor menu of policy options. It can purchase more assets and lower interest rates, but it can’t change a world economy that’s running out of inflationary gas.

Odey Makes 21% In Past 2 Days, Nearly Wiping Out Abysmal Start To The Year

After a truly hair-raising first half to 2016, if not so much for billionaire Odey as for his LPs, he appears to have finally hit a home run with Brexit. According to  Bloomberg, Odey's "winning run continued with the flagship Fund up 21% in just two days." The days in question: Friday and Monday, when the market's reaction to the Brexit vote was nothing short of surreal

Frontrunning: June 28

  • Brexit vote, UK political confusion keep world markets on edge (Reuters)
  • Cameron Heads to Last Supper in Brussels Amid Impasse in London (BBG)
  • Banks Get Reprieve From Brexit Hammering (WSJ)
  • U.S. Stock Futures Rise as Stimulus Hopes Outweigh Brexit Fears (BBG)
  • Brexit adds to existing troubles faced by banks (FT)

Greenspan Warns A Crisis Is Imminent, Urges A Return To The Gold Standard

"We're dealing now in very early days a crisis which has got a way to go.  If we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure of the gold standard as it exited prior to 1913, we'd be fine.  Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive periods economically that we've had in the United States, and that was a golden period of the gold standard."

The End Game Of Bubble Finance - Political Revolt

During Friday’s bloodbath we heard a CNBC anchor lady assuring her (scant) remaining audience that Brexit wasn’t a big sweat. That’s because it is purportedly a political crisis, not a financial one. Here’s a news flash. That’s all about to change. The era of Bubble Finance was enabled by a political abdication nearly 50 years ago. But as Donald Trump rightly observed in the wake of Brexit, the voters are about to take back their governments, meaning that the financial elites of the world are in for a rude awakening.