Recession

US Economy Continues to Weaken As Warning Signs Flash Recession Ahead

The US economy continues to show weakening conditions as new warning signs are flashing recession ahead. This is despite the best efforts of the FED and the US Government to assure the public that there are plenty of measures in place to continue to stimulate the economy.

Crispin Odey Sees 80% Crash In UK Stocks With Recession, Inflation "Inevitable"

"The FTSE 100 share index is now up 30% over five years, whilst earnings have fallen by 80%. On an earnings yield of 1.6%, the stock market could fall by 80% and, provided profits did not fall, would be on a 13x P/E multiple. The Bank of England is proud that they have engineered such a pleasant result but there is now increasing evidence that this is unsustainable."

Don’t Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake

From here on out politics are only relevant at the extremes - major war, corruption scandal, martial law etc. Short of that, the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world has such institutional momentum that it really won’t matter whether Trump is picking on bankers and building his wall or Clinton is protecting Wall Street and raising taxes. Debt will keep soaring as it has under every president since Reagan and jobs will disappear as machines replace people, thus bringing the end of the current system inexorably closer.

US Construction Spending Contracts YoY For First Time Since 2011

For the first time since Dec 2012, US Construction spending declined for two consecutive months (sliding 0.4% in October versus an expectation of a 0.5% rise). But, perhaps rather shockingly for many, US Construction Spending declined 0.2% year-over-year for the first time since 2011, with public construction outlays at ther lowest since March 2014.

With Q3 Earnings Season Half Done, This Is Where We Stand

With more than half of the S&P500 reporting Q3 results so far, it appears that the earnings recession may finally be ending mostly as a result of the rise in oil prices which have pushed energy earnings higher relative to expectations on a year over year basis, and especially due to surprisingly strong results in the US banking sector.

Dallas Fed Outlook Signals 22nd Straight Month Of Contraction

Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Outlook has now contracted for 22 consecutive months (the 2008/9 crisis collapse was 24 straight months) with a -1.5 print in October (missing expectations of +2). Production declined, Capacity Utilization tumbled, New Orders and Average Workweek contracted, and wages dropped (while prices paid rose).

Market Trapped As Recession Risk Rises

With the ongoing political circus, weak corporate earnings (considering the massive reductions in expectations since the beginning of the year), Apple and Amazon both missing expectations (which really goes to the heart of the consumer), and consumer sentiment waning, it is surprising the markets are still holding up as well as they are. As long as the markets can maintain support about 2125, the bull market is still in play, but at this point, not by much.

"Things Have Become Quite Precarious"

"Undeniably, Yellen’s main accomplishment is that she primes the pump for Wall Street and the big banks so they can siphon off the accrued livelihood of the hoi polloi.  All the while she mucks around with the lives of hundreds of millions of people in ways that only the most ardent of central planners could find pleasure slobbering over."