- China central bank tries to soothe global markets, says no reason for yuan to fall further (Reuters)
- Huge blasts at Chinese port kill 44, with hundreds injured (Reuters)
- China efforts to slow yuan fall hoist Europe shares, bond yields (Reuters)
- Greek Economy Unexpectedly Surged Before Capital Controls (BBG)
- Joe Biden Is Sounding Out Allies About a 2016 Bid (WSJ)
- U.K. Tries to Kick-Start Shale Gas With Planning Speedup (BBG)
In some ways the question is not whether the renminbi is competitive or uncompetitive. The problem is that the renminbi is unambiguously less competitive than it was. This comes at a time when the Chinese economy is struggling and the stock market bubble is bursting. To all but the most PollyAnna’ish of observers that means this is the start of a major renminbi devaluation forcing the US to import even more of the world’s unwanted deflation.... Prepare for sub-1% 10y Treasury yields and another financial crisis as policy impotence is soon revealed to all.
As we hurtle toward the absolutely critical months of September and October, the unraveling of the global financial system is beginning to accelerate.
Asset price inflation, a disease whose source always lies in monetary disorder, is not a new affliction. It was virtually inevitable that the present wild experimentation by the Federal Reserve - joined by the Bank of Japan and ECB - would produce a severe outbreak. And indications from the markets are that the disease is in a late phase, though still short of the final deadly stage characterized by pervasive falls in asset markets, sometimes financial panic, and the onset of recession.
"When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen."
During six months of protracted and terribly fraught negotiations between Athens, Berlin, Brussels, and the IMF, the idea that Spain, Italy, and Ireland somehow represented austerity "success stories" was frequently trotted out as the rationale behind demanding that Greece embark on a deeper fiscal retrenchment despite the fact that the country is mired in recession. For many in the periphery, the notion of an economic recovery is fiction, plain and simple.
For 6 ½ long years, we have been bombarded with the mythology known as “the U.S. economic recovery” by the mainstream media.
Scaremongery... or maybe the whole point, as Obama's former chief economist noted, is to lose reserve status. Take That China!!
The economy operates within a finite world, so at some point, a problem of diminishing returns develops. In other words, it takes more and more effort (human labor and use of resources) to produce a given quantity of oil or food, or fresh water, or other desirable products. The problem of slowing economic growth is very closely related to the question: How can the limits we are reaching be expected to play out in a finite world? Many people imagine that we will “run out” of some necessary resource, such as oil, but we see the situation differently. Here are a few issues that may not be obvious.
For anyone who might have missed it, Brazil is in trouble. "Macro imbalances in Brazil are large, the worst in almost a decade. The fiscal deficit at -8.1% of GDP is also at its widest in more than 20 years, with the combined twin deficits now tracking at a disquieting 12.5% of GDP. Brazil stands at a crossroads – both roads involve currency depreciation."
How much more devaluation is in store for the CNY? Well, if one believes the PBOC, today's intervention was a "one off." The problem is that just like every central bank in modern history, the Chinese central bank is lying. Here is the truth.
The ratio of wholesale inventories-to-sales pushed back up to 1.3 - its highest since the recession and is flashing an enormous red flag for an imminent recesion in America, with the automOtive industry the biggest factor in this. A bigger-than-expeted 0.9% surge in inventories (biggest since April 2014) was accompanied by a considerably slower than expected 0.1% growth in sales (weakest since March) suggest that 'field of dreams' corporate planning remains in place. Most crucially, as The Atlanta Fed warns, "lower inventory investment will subtract 1.7ppt from Q3 real GDP growth." The higher Q2 'build' the worst Q3 will be - though we are sure economists will extrapolate Q2 growth no matter what...
- China Rattles Markets With Yuan Devaluation (BBG)
- China Move Sparks Wave of Yuan Selling (WSJ)
- China's devaluation raises currency war fear as Greece strikes deal (Reuters)
- Protests return to Ferguson streets, state of emergency declared (Reuters)
- Heavily armed 'Oath Keepers' inject new unease to riot-hit Ferguson (Reuters)
- Greece Secures Bailout Deal After All-Night Talks in Athens (BBG)
- U.S. Identifies Insider Trading Ring With Ukraine Hackers (BBG)
Trainwreck? Rail traffic fell in July from a year ago as WSJ reports an increase in container volumes couldn’t offset a steep decline in oil and coal shipments according to the Association of American Railroads. Despite almost constant reassurance that plunging oil prices are 'unequivocally good" for America, AAR analysts warn "railroads are overexposed, relative to the economy in general, to the energy sector," adding that traffic data indiates "growth is slow and the recovery could be threatened by an interest-rate increase by the Fed."
For the past 8 years, the US consumer has dutifully spent, spent and then spent some more. This all came to a screeching halt earlier today when courtesy of the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, we learned that the US consumer has finally tapped out. Households reported that they expected to increase their spending by just 3.5% in the next year, a major drop from the 4.3% the month before. This was the lowest reading in series history.