Recession

The Wierdest Thing About 2016 Is...

"Trump wins US Election"? "UK Leaves EU"? "Cubs Win World Series"? How about this one: "The VIX Peaks in February"? For the first time since the start of the modern VIX in 1990, the 'Fear Gauge' peaked in that month...

The Bears Are Dying: Even Bob Janjuah Turns (Somewhat) Bullish

"The trends over H1 2017 should be higher (especially US) equities and yields, steeper curves, a stronger USD, and mixed performance in credit (especially in the IG sphere) and EM. So for me, most likely over the middle two quarters of 2017, I can see the S&P 500 cash index up at 2450 +/- 50 points, with the Nasdaq weakest and the Dow strongest of the big three US indices."

Warnings We'll Wish We'd Heeded...

It’s the same story every time: Imbalances build up during a recovery but most investors ignore them because good times have become the new normal and the uptrend seems bullet-proof. Then things fall apart and everyone wishes they’d paid attention to history.

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Morgan Stanley Reflects On The Lessons From 2016

"The biggest surprises in 2016 were clearly political – notably Brexit and the US presidential election. As a result, we will be keeping a close eye on political developments in 2017, notably in Europe, where not just Germany, France and Italy are heading to the polls in 2017, but also the Netherlands and possibly also Greece."

Will A Stronger Dollar Cause A Trade War With Europe?

Everyone and their dog in the marketplace realizes that an EMU (European Monetary Union) debt crisis before the German elections next Autumn could sink Chancellor Merkel. There is a deeper problem here. It is becoming clear that even beyond Europe’s election season, “monetary normalization” may well not be feasible.

Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize In Economics

It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.