Recession

An Open Letter To The Fed's William Dudley

"Let’s face it... The Fed can’t hold the financial order together much longer anyway. Why pretend you can with utter nonsense like crashing unemployment? It’s insulting...Your credibility’s shot..."

"Is The Equity Market Irrational Yet?" Citi Answers With The Following Chart

As the cycle matures, pair-wise correlations drop. When the cycle turns and stock markets drop, correlation picks up rapidly as investors “sell what they own”. In 2000/2001 and 2006/2007, this correlation indicator fell to around 20% before markets peaked out. We are currently at 30%.

Dear Market, I Think Janet Yellen Broke Up With You Last Week

"Now what has happened in the real world to accelerate the Fed’s tightening agenda, and more to the point, a specific form of tightening that impacts markets more directly than any sort of interest rate hike? What has happened is that the Fed’s reaction function has flipped 180 degrees since the Trump election."

Fed "Stress Test" Results Are Out: Everyone Passes Even As VIX Hits 70

Moments ago the Fed released the first phase of its annual stress test which, once again, found that all thirty-four of the US largest banks "passed", exceeding minimum projected capital and leverage ratios under severely adverse scenarios, based on their projected ability to withstand economic shocks

One Trader Is Stunned By The "Staggering" Confusion In The Market

"The ability of people to string together utterly inconsistent arguments to describe what’s going on in markets, and the world for that matter, is staggering...what are manifesting themselves as quiet markets are actually highly unstable... "

Data Says Fed Is Making A Mistake

"While raising rates will accelerate a potential recession and a significant market correction, from the Fed’s perspective it might be the ‘lesser of two evils. Being caught near the “zero bound” at the onset of a recession leaves few options for the Federal Reserve to stabilize an economic decline. In other words, they already likely realize they are screwed."

If BlackRock And Pimco Are Right, "Another Fed Shock Looms"

"Once bitten, twice eager sounds like a contradiction but it can often seem like standard operating procedure in global markets - just look at the money piling into bets that the Federal Reserve is going nowhere soon with monetary tightening. It’s as if the February shock - when a deluge of Fedspeak made traders realize their bets against a March hike were wrong - never happened." 

Millennials' Savings Rate Climbs For First Time In A Decade

Despite the aggregate student debt burden eclipsing the $1 trillion mark, and wages pressures across the US economy remaining relatively subdued, a new survey from Bankrate.com claims that Americans’ savings habits are improving for the first time in a decade, with the strongest gains recorded among the 18-26 demographic.

The Reverse Tepper Moment Looms

Seven years ago when Tepper made his bold call, the Fed was trying their best to get stocks higher. At that point, no one believed, and it took guts to ride along in the Fed’s wagon. Today, the Fed is trying to keep financial conditions from becoming too easy, and once again no one believes.