Recession

China's Minsky Moment Is Imminent

Everything you wanted to know about the looming bursting of the world's biggest credit bubble, but were afraid to ask...

More Lonely, Fewer 'Friends', Less Sex - Have Smartphones Destroyed A Generation?

"Around 2012, I noticed abrupt shifts in teen behaviors and emotional states. The gentle slopes of the line graphs became steep mountains and sheer cliffs, and many of the distinctive characteristics of the Millennial generation began to disappear. In all my analyses of generational data - some reaching back to the 1930s - I had never seen anything like it..."

In Epic Letter, Elliott's Singer Rages Against Everything From Passive Investing To "Safe Spaces"

"...passive investing is in danger of devouring capitalism.  Government manipulation of securities prices has created the illusion that simply holding stocks and bonds in their index weights and sitting back arms folded is the perfect investment strategy.  What may have been a clever idea in its infancy has grown into a blob which is destructive to the growth-creating and consensus-building prospects of free-market capitalism."

Is Another Oil Head-Fake Coming?

"The global economy will quickly adjust to low oil prices, and decisions will be made to raise consumption based on those low prices... When oil inevitably spikes higher as supply is slashed and demand increases off the recessionary trough, everyone will be "surprised" that low prices didn't last... That's the oil head-fake in a nutshell."

'Dr.Doom' Warns "The Gap Between Wall And Main Street Is Widening... Correction Is Inevitable"

"Yes, inflation is low, and corporate profits and stock markets are soaring. But the gap between Wall Street and Main Street is widening. High market valuations that are fueled by liquidity and irrational exuberance do not reflect fundamental economic realities. An eventual market correction is inevitable. The only question is whom Trump will blame when it happens."

July Payrolls Preview: Smooth Sailing But Watch Out For Cars

At 8:30am on Friday, the BLS is expected to announce that in July the US created 180K jobs, down from 222K in June though still in line with the 6-month average of 180K, with the biggest downside risk a slowdown in durable manufacturing payrolls as auto production slumped.

Credit Investors Are Suddenly Extremely Worried About Central Banks

The latest credit investor survey by Bank of America shows a marked change in the Wall of Worry: "Quantitative Failure" by central banks has emerged as investors’ top concern (23%), up materially from June’s reading (6%). Investors say that a backdrop of the ECB ending QE next year, while inflation remains sub-par, "has the potential to rattle the market’s confidence."