Venezuela - home to the largest oil reserves in the world - will for the next 40 days experience a four-hour blackout every single day, and there are fears that the rationing could lead to unrest and trigger a decline in oil output at a time when the country is barely hanging on.
For the 5th month in a row (and 10th of last 11), S&P Case-Shiller Home Price growth YoY missed expectations. February saw prices rise 5.38% (below 5.5% exp) which is the weakest annual growth since September 2015. Seattle and San Francisco rose the most MoM as Cleveland and New York saw the biggest drops MoM.
Following February's dismal drops across the board in Durable Goods, expectations were high for a March rebound. However, the mean-reverters were greatly disappointed as Orders rose just 0.8% MoM (missing expectations of a 1.9% surge) off a revised lower print, pushing the YoY change back into the red. Core Durables Goods Orders fell YoY for the 14th consecutive month - a streak never seen in 60 years outside of a broad US recession. Capital Goods Orders (0.0% vs +0.6% exp) and Shipments (+0.3% vs +0.9% exp) both missed and were both revised lower. Not a pretty picture...
An economic and financial system premised on perpetual growth was bound to run into trouble. What happens as population growth turns to population decline is honestly and literally a complete and total game changer. A flat to declining number of buyers and consumers opposite ramping elderly sellers plus their unfunded liabilities is a problem with no happy resolutions. Currencies (what will constitute "money"), "free-markets", and perhaps the basis of civilization hang in the balance of the transition from high population growth to potential outright depopulation.
To gauge the degree and duration of the manufacturing slowdown, turn to semiconductors, which are the primary and early component in all things manufactured. That, plus other factors, make semiconductors an excellent leading indicator.
"Well, if you're involved in the oil patch directly, drilling activity or anything like that I think we've gone beyond recession and it's more a depression. The facts are that this latest round of commodity price collapse that happened the first part of this year I think really put the nail in the coffin for the industry."
It is quite evident there is something amiss about the BLS’ employment reports. Is the disparity simply an anomaly in the seasonal adjustments caused by the depth of the financial crisis? Is there an exceptional and unaccounted for margin of error in the surveys? Or, is it something more intentional by government-related agencies to keep “confidence” elevated as Central Banks globally “paddle like crazy” to keep global economies afloat.
The dangerous divergence will then take a nasty turn. The bottom half of the 1% will now be as angry as the 99%. Any attempt by the establishment to further screw the nation by bailing themselves out will be met with violent disapproval. The country is a powder keg. The upcoming election is guaranteed to inflame opposing factions. A stock market crash in the next six months would sow the seeds of financial, political, and social upheaval not seen in this country since the 1960s. The established social order will be swept away in a swirl of chaos and retribution. The dangerous divergence will be resolved.
The True Story Of Q1 Earnings: Deutsche Admits "Results So Far Are Disappointing; Our 1Q Est. Is At Risk"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/25/2016 11:07 -0400
Confirming once more that what is one analyst's meat, is another analyst's non-GAAP poison, this "improvment" was not enough for one of Wall Street's most cheerful analysts, DB's David Bianco, who in his Q1 earnings tracker admitted something troubling - the truth: "Results so far are disappointing and our 1Q est. is at risk." In fact, as DB admits, a sharp bounce in the fishhook chart shown above is now dependent on "big beats at Energy." Good luck with those.
"This Is Not A Good Time To Be In Business": Dallas Fed Disappoints, Contracts For 16th Straight MonthSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/25/2016 10:41 -0400
Following the death of Philly Fed's dead-cat-bounce, Dallas Fed did the same with a disappointing thud back to -13.9 (missing expectations of a rise to -10.0). This is the 16th consecutive month in contraction (below 0) and respondents are increasingly depressed, "it is a bad time for manufacturing, agriculture and mining - the only sectors that actually create wealth." What kind of fiction are these real average joes peddling? Have they not seen the jobs data?
The time to prepare for this bubble to burst is now. When stocks catch up to earnings, we're going DOWN, possibly even in a CRASH.
True believers want to think China will continue to grow at breakneck speed and the IMF is feeding them what they want to hear to lift animal spirits accordingly. When the house of credit-cards comes crumbling down the IMF will once again be proven to have completely missed an obvious structural shift as the Chinese economy will linger on like Japan has done over the last three decades.
Yellen’s secret meeting at the White House followed an emergency secret Federal Reserve Board meeting. The Fed then held another secret meeting to discuss bank reform. These secret meetings come on the heels of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s estimate that first quarter GDP growth was .01 percent, dangerously close to the official definition of recession. Thus the real reason for all these secret meetings could be a panic that the Fed’s eight year explosion of money creation has not just failed to revive the economy, but is about to cause another major market meltdown.
Irrational market exuberance hits its zenith after Doha talks fail as oil prices rise, instead of fall, because of minor Kuwait oil strike, then stay up after the strike fails within a day, then rise more when Saudis promise to retaliate with more production and stay up when Russians promise to retailiate with still more production.
Sadly, it is undeniable that this reality has become more and more prevalent in America as the 21st century has unfolded, and we don’t think it’s a coincidence that we’ve seen this flare up during a decade and a half characterized by a pummeling of the middle class, a decimation of civil liberties, and the entrenchment of a callous and corrupt political and economic oligarchy.