Recession

Not Remotely Data Dependent

Should the FOMC “hike” in December, it will again have nothing to do with economy or recovery.

Fed Labor Market Conditions Index Contracts For 5th Straight Month

Despite a small rise MoM, The Fed's own Labor Market Conditions Index has now deteriorated year-over-year for 5 straight months, despite significant upward revisions over the last 6 months, most notably in September and October. As Deutsche's Jo Lavorgan notes,"the upshot is that the economic outlook remains fragile despite the ostensible robustness of the labor market."

"Meanwhile In Europe..." - The Big Day Arrives

Less than a month after the "shocking" election of Donald Trump as US president, the world prepares for another day of political shockwaves, this time out of Europe, when on Sunday all eyes will be on Italy and, to a slightly lesser extent, Austria.

In The Year Of Fake News, Finance Cannot Be Entertainment

This general populist backlash that we’re seeing now isn’t new. It was born out of the 2008 financial crisis.  Many are still coming out of that debt burden and harbor a sense of deep resentment and suspicion.  Wall Street knew what was taking place then, but like today, the media didn’t paint a full picture for everyone.  As a result people lost their homes, their jobs and their life savings. We deserve so much more than to be just entertained.

Trump Vs China: Credit Cycles & Gold

As all experience from the past clearly demonstrates, it is a mistake to believe that the gold price is set solely by dollar interest rates, or its relative strength in other currencies. This being the case, the current weakness of the gold price is simply a reflection of temporary dollar shortages, and nothing more.