recovery

"It's The Inverse Of Keynes" - Earnings Season Was Very, Very Bad

"It is the inverse of Keynes, where there is no consideration at all except for the long run and how some unknowable magic combination of policies will surely make it such a happy and prosperous place – even though none so far have come close."

Biggest US Equity Outflows Since Brexit; US Banks Hit The Hardest

The latest evidence that rumors of Trumpflation trade's death are not greatly exagerated came overnight from Bank of America which reported that based equity funds saw net outflows of $8.9 billion, the largest in 38 weeks. The most impacted sector was, not surprisingly, banks - the biggest beneficiary of the post-Trump election victory rally, which suffered the biggest outflows in over a year.

The Echo Chamber Of Elite Economists: Often Wrong, Never In Doubt

Despite what appears to be an inflection point of radical change, most of which remains unknown, the consensus opinion of professional economists and markets, in general, are well-aligned, optimistic and seemingly convinced about how the economy and markets will evolve throughout the year.  The consensus forecast based upon an assessment of economic projections from major financial institutions appears to be the result of a Ph.D. echo chamber, not rigorous independent analysis.

Global Stocks Tumble; Gold, Safe Havens Jump On Doubts Trump Tax Cuts Will Pass

Global stocks tumbled amid growing doubts President Trump will be able to deliver on a promise of tax cuts that has powered stocks markets to record highs pushed shares lower on Wednesday and drove investors to seek safety in government debt, gold and the yen. As DB put it: "Warning! US equities can occasionally go down as well as up a lot."

Muni Massacre - Puerto Rico Bonds Plunge Near Record Lows

The last 5 days have seen the biggest crash in Puerto Rico muni bonds since June 2015 when the Governor declared debts "unpayable." As Bloomberg notes, investor speculation about the scale of the losses Puerto Rico will foist on bondholders caused the price of the island’s most active bond to continue to slide in the heaviest trading in nearly four months.

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide Spooked By G20 Protectionist Shift; Dollar Drops For 4th Day

Global markets start the week mixed with Asian stocks rising (Japan was closed for holiday), European stocks sliding, weighed down by declines in oil-and-gas shares and banks, and S&P500 futures also down. The dollar fell to a six-week low, falling four days in a row for the first time since early November as G20 leaders scrap a long-standing commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism.

Hedge Fund CIO: "The Odds Of Trump Succeeding Are Zero In The Absence Of A New War"

Then came a synchronized global cyclical recovery, which we may now confuse as a Trump inspired break from this stranglehold. "If I thought our new president could increase budget deficits by another 2% per year, my thesis would crumble. I’d be wrong. But the odds of this are zero in the absence of starting a new war."