• EconMatters
    11/30/2015 - 16:21
    The ISIS group sells most of its crude directly to independent traders at the wellhead for $20-$45 a barrel earning the group an average of $1.5 million a day.


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China Manufacturing Slumps To 3-Year Lows And Soars To 5-Month Highs

Following the earlier onslaught of weak (and strong) economic data, China has revealed its official and Caixin-based PMI surveys for Manufacturing and Services. Sure enough, while China's official manufacturing data missed (to Aug 2012 lows), Ciaxin's survey beat, jumping to June 2015 highs. even as China's official Services PMI beat expectations, bouncing off 15-month lows. The question now is - given The IMF's inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR basket - will The PBOC devalue (as offshore Yuan implies) to juice a collapsing manufacturing sector...  or is China's manufacturing now improving if one looks at the "other" PMI?

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Number Of Millennials Living In Parents' Basement Climbs (Again); Weddings Blamed (Again)

Three weeks ago, we noted with some alarm that the number of women age 18 to 34 living with their parents is now the highest since record keeping began more than seven decades ago. Now, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department (which someone clearly forgot to double seasonally adjust), we discover that nearly a fifth of males aged 25-34 live in their parent's basement while the aggregate number for the 18 to 34 bracket inclusive of both women and men rose to 31.5% as of March.

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2015: The Last Christmas In America

The game of enabling more debt by lowering interest rates and loosening lending standards is coming to an end. Debt is not a sustainable substitute for income, and households are increasingly waking up to this realization. Say good-bye to Christmas, America, and debt-based spending in general--except, of course, for the federal government, which can always borrow another couple trillion dollars on the backs of our grandchildren.

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BTFD "Is Coming To An End" JPM Warns, As It Lowers Equity Allocation Most In 6 Years

"We think that the equities risk-reward will be less attractive than it was in the past few years. We reduce our equities OW in a balanced portfolio to a minimal one, at 5% vs benchmark, the lowest we have had since the current upcycle started. The long period of indiscriminately buying any dip might be coming to an end."

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Fourth Turning - Politicians Driving The World Towards War

Americans today are blissfully distracted by their iGadgets, plotting out their holiday shopping strategies, leasing new cars, eating out, and buying advance tickets to the new Star Wars movie. They don’t see the wicked winter squalls ahead which will try their souls. We are experiencing the lull before the storms, but the storms are surely coming. The potential for catastrophe is high and burying our heads in the sand is not a strategy.

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Fourth Turning - Social & Cultural Distress Dividing The Nation

A simmering rage is bubbling below the surface as 20% of American households rely on food stamps to survive, the percentage of Americans in the labor force stands at a four decade low, real household income remains stagnant at 1988 levels, corporate profits have reached record levels while corporations continue to fire Americans – shipping their jobs overseas, and the six mega-corporations representing the mainstream media cover up the truth, mislead the public with propaganda, while celebrating the .1% as saviors of our economy. There is nothing more volatile to societal stability than millions of unemployed men, growing angry and resentful towards the ruling class for their lot in life.


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Submerging Markets

After failed breakouts earlier in the year, the charts of the Asian Tiger Cub markets suggest more trouble may lie ahead... as The Fed's decision looms.

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A Heatmap Of Global CapEx 'Shrinkage'

Hot on the heels of the biggest collapse in Australian Capex ever, and just as we predicted back in 2012, we thought it about time to once again re-visit - Godot-like - the never-ending wait for 'recovery' (or ongoing crash) in Capital Expenditure around the world.

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As If The French Did Not Have Enough Problems

With bond yields hitting ever-increasingly negative levels and stock prices inexorably rising on a wave of real and promised liquidity from Draghi, one could be forgiven for believing the hype about Europe's recovery (had we not seen decades of failure for Japanese QE and 6 years for The Fed). So amid all this renewed hope, with its spiralling nationalism and warmongery - France just suffered the largest jump in joblessness in over 2 years to a new record high of 3.5898 million unemployed.

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If "Everything's Awesome" Why Did Aussie CapEx Just Collapse By The Most In Its 30 Year History

Day after day, the 'stability' in the stock "markets" (specifically in AsiaPac) is posited as 'proof' that China is 'fixed', the worst is over in EMs, The Fed can raise rates, and massive monetray policy manipulation of market signals had no mal-investment consequences. Well all of that utter crap just got obliterated as China's right-hand-man in the credit-fueled commodity boom bust - Australia - just saw its business capital expenditure collapse 20% YoY - the biggest drop ever, accelerating the crash in business spending to 11 quarters. As Goldman warns, this exposes significant downside risk to any forecast for GDP recovery in 2016.

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Let It Snow - California Drought Recovery Remains "Extremely Unlikely"

While so much hope is pinned on El Nino relieving California's drought in early 2016, climatologists suggest tempering that optimism a little as what is really needed is snow. "Since it has been dry for so long, people get excited,” says one hydrologist, but, as Bloomberg reports, without snow "the notion of fully recovering from the drought is extremely unlikely,” as if the storms come in as rain, or the mountain snow can’t pile up high enough, a lot of water will be lost.

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This Is China's Middle Finger For The Global Economy

The US is on its own and monetary expansion seems the only Holy Grail left...

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Global Stocks Rebound As Geopolitical Tensions Subside; Europe Surges On Report Of More ECB Easing

Following yesterday's dramatic geopolitical shock, U.S. equity index futures rise as Russia has not escalated the confrontation with Turkey as some had feared, while Asian shares fall, reversing earlier gains. European stocks are rallying and the euro is falling on the back of a Reuters report that the ECB is mulling new measures to prop up lending, although it’s not clear at this point what the real impact from these measures would be.

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