recovery

Recession Odds Spike To 37%, JPM Calculates, Highest Yet For This Cycle

While not as dire as the recent analysis by Deutsche Bank, overnight JPM released its latest recession probability analysis, and - somewhat unexpectedly following the last two stellar job reports and a full court political press that the recovery has rarely been stronger going into the election - now sees a 37% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. This is the highest recession probability calculated by Jamie Dimon's bank during the current economic cycle, and matches the odds first laid out in early July.

What Went Wrong Yesterday

The answer to ‘How do you stimulate the economy when there are no more conventional rate or unconventional QE/forward guidance tools?’ is ‘Broaden the set of assets that you can buy”. And while Congress may be unwilling when the unemployment rate is under 5%, they may be more willing at 7% if a recession is underway….and this means they can continue to do slow and unsteady hikes, based on the current framework.

The Reckoning Looms - Central Bankers Really Don't Know What They're Doing

What is happening this year is astounding. After saying year after year after year that the recovery is coming, and even doing so to the point of condescension, the admissions of wrongfulness are starting to roll in, if only softly at first. How ludicrous does “transitory” look now?

Why Is FaceBook Funding "Anti-Fed" Activists

That's what St. Louis Fed president James Bullard would like to know: "I think that Dustin Moskovitz should be here, maybe he can helicopter in from Sun Valley or something instead of sending all these people, if he wants low interest rates."

"Things Are Worse" - Dollar Stores' Startling Admission: Half Of US Consumers Are In Dire Straits

"I know that when we look at the overall U.S. population, it seems like things are getting better. But when you start breaking it down and you look at that core consumer that we serve on the lower economic scale that's out there, things have not gotten any better for her, and arguably, they're worse because rents are accelerating, healthcare is accelerating." - Dollar General CEO, Todd Vasos

Government Study Admits Fed Policies Have Deepened Downturn For Many

People, more and more of them, understand the impossibility of improving the economy by giving a handful of people the power to expand or contract the money stock at will. In simplest terms it is a ridiculous idea. It can’t work. It doesn’t work. And this analysis is further proof. And sooner or later the current system will not have the necessary popular support to survive.

Existing Home Sales Crush Recovery Narrative, Plunge Most Since Nov 2015

Following yesterday's 7 standard deviation beat in New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales for July missed expectations by 2 standard deviations dropping 1.64% YoY - the first annual decline since Nov 2015. The blame for this collapse - according to NAR's Larry Yun - is "frustratingly low inventory levels."

The Permian Pitfall: A Race To The Bottom For Tight Oil

Remember the shale gale and Saudi America? The scale of those outlandish delusions has now dwindled to plays in a few counties in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Saudi Permian. It’s a race to the bottom as investors double down on the tight oil companies that can still tell a growth story.

Jim Grant: "This Will Turn Out To Be Very Bad For Many People"

"The stock market is at record highs and the bond market is acting as if this were the Great Depression... the Fed is virtually a hostage of the financial markets. When they sputter, let alone fall, the Fed frets and steps in... the Fed is justified in that belief because it is responsible to a great degree for the elevation of financial asset values... and to me, gold is a very timely way to invest in monetary disorder."

Dispelling The Norwegian Housing Myth

Recently,an economist from DnB (Norway’s largest bank) stated that Norway is not in a housing bubble although conditions resemble one and prices can still fall. The article states that a socialist country with lots of benefits can handle higher debt levels than a capitalist one. It fails to acknowledge the impact of the eroding oil foundation on the long term economy.