recovery

Japanese Trade Surplus Slumps To 14-Month Lows As Exports, Imports Surge

Japanese adjusted trade balance tumbles over 500 billion yen in March (after surging around 500 billion yen in February) as lunar new year effects washed out and left the lowest trade surplus since January 2016. Exports (up 12% YoY) and Imports (up 15.8% YoY) both soared at the fastest pace in years.

The Real Message From The GDXJ Mess

"Maybe this GDXJ problem is the shot across of the bow. Maybe Grant Williams’ theory about how little it will take to move this market is starting to come true. There is precious little room for everyone in the gold boat."

The Fed Still Has On Its Beer Goggles

"The danger with these econometricians is they don’t know their own limitations, and they have a far greater sense of confidence in their analyses than I have found to be warranted... They are, however, dangerous to people like you and the politicians because you don’t know their limitations, and you are impressed and confused by the elaborate models and mathematics."

Goldman: "Investors Are Increasingly Concerned About An S&P Drawdown"

One day after covering its long-standing long dollar call (coincidentally, just one week after former Goldman COO Gary Cohn urged Trump to flip on his own "strong dollar" policy), Goldman has gotten even more cautious and in a note released this morning it warns that "Investors are increasingly concerned about an S&P drawdown." Here's why.

Goldman Asks: Are Markets Rationally, Or Irrationally, Exuberant?

The distinction between rational and irrational sentiment matters. If improvements in sentiment “rationally” reflect recent macro data or “news” about future developments, they likely foreshadow stronger growth. But to the extent that sentiments are “irrational,” they leave the economy more vulnerable to cycles of overheating and correction.

George H.W. Bush Hospitalized Again But "Doing Fine"

For the second time in four months, former President George H.W. Bush, 92, was readmitted to the hospital in Houston where he was treated earlier this year for pneumonia but "is going to be fine," his spokesman said on Tuesday.

US Restaurant Industry Suffers Worst Collapse Since 2009

With a same-store sales decline of 1.6%, the first quarter of 2017 was the fifth consecutive quarter of negative results. The last time the industry experienced a similar period was in 2009 and the first half of 2010, as the economy began recovery following the recession. Only this time the move is in the opposite direction.

Where Does The World's Biggest Oil Importer Get Its Crude

China is the world’s largest net importer of crude oil, and in recent years, China’s crude oil imports have increasingly come from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). While OPEC countries still made up most (57%) of China’s 7.6 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil imports in 2016, crude oil from non-OPEC countries made up 65% of the growth in China’s imports between 2012 and 2016.

Houston Commercial Rents Plunge As Vacancies Hit 22-Year High

There is seemingly no end to the growing problem of commercial real estate vacancies across the country.  And while we've spent a lot of time talking about the largest markets of New York and San Francisco, Houston, one of the hardest hit markets from the collapse of oil prices, is also in the midst of its own real estate collapse.

Stockman: The Trump Reflation Fantasy Ends On Day 100

"In honor of the Donald’s “Mother of All Bomb” (MOAB) attack on the Hindu Kush mountains Thursday, let me introduce MOAD. I’m referring to the “Mother of All Debt” crises, of course... The opening round is coming when Washington goes into shutdown mode on April 28, which happens to be Day 100 of the Donald’s reign."

"Hell To Pay"

"No doubt, there’s hell to pay for 100 years of ever escalating financial insanity.  Take it in stride.  The downside is here and it’s not going away any time soon."