recovery

The US Economy: Back On Track?

The weekly rail traffic report published by the Association of American Railroads provides a great snapshot of US economic activity almost in real (weekly) time. Last July we noted that we were starting to witness some signals of a trend change, now suggesting a softening. But much has happened since then, including a broadly unexpected change in the political direction of the US. Have those signals been reversed as a result?

The Eight Forces That Are Pressuring Profits

If there is any economic assumption that goes unquestioned, it's the notion that profits will remain robust for the foreseeable future. This assumption ignores the tidal forces that are now flowing against profits.

Why Has The White House Suddenly Released A Strategy For Dealing With A Catastrophic Meteor Impact?

While we should take notice at the government preparations for disaster (and the possibility of a cataclysmic collision with damaging objects in space), we should perhaps take more notice at what they are preparing for with all the billions of dollars thrown at defense and survival, it comes in secretive infrastructure for a reclusive sect of power, and in top-down plans to contain the unrest.

The Well-Reasoned Basis Of Populism

The rise of populism isn’t the politics of rejecting experts, it is the rejection of these “experts” – who quite frankly deserve more than voter disdain. Credentials have come to be seen by a very large and growing proportion of the global population to declare incompetence, having nothing at all to do with intellectual capacity apart from objectivity. It isn’t the denial of reasoned argument but rather the logical end of it.

Why Morgan Stanley Threw Up All Over Those "Great" Rising Earnings

"The increase in average hourly earnings since the beginning of 2015 has been mostly due to the fact that average weekly hours have fallen. Remember, average hourly earnings is a ratio of average weekly earnings to average weekly hours. The ratio has been going up because the denominator has been going down - not because the numerator has been going up!"

It's The Debt, Stupid - Massive Borrowing Binge Producing Fake Recovery

Taken together recent economic data paint a picture of a global economy that’s finally returning to the kind of solid growth and steady, positive inflation that most people consider both normal and good. Unfortunately, the reason for the improvement is emphatically not good: In 2016 the world borrowed a huge amount of money and spent the proceeds. The result is “growth,” but not sustainable growth.