recovery

People Are Suddenly Worried About China (Again)

While Trump seemingly remains the only topic worthy of discussion blanketing the airwaves, as the following chart from Goldman demonstrates, it has been China where policy uncertainty has stealthily exploded in the past three months.

US Shale Production To Soar By 3.5 Million Barrels/Day Over Next Five Years: BofA Explains Why

Shale oil output in the US may grow significantly over the next five years due to increased activity in oil rigs and fast productivity gains, Bank of America predicts. The key reason: breakeven costs for key major US plays now stand around the $55/bbl mark. Assuming a gradual recovery in oil prices, annual US shale oil growth is expected to rise by 700 thousand b/d annually by 2022: a total increase of 3.5mmbpd.

About Those "Overly Optimistic" Trump GDP Forecasts, There's Just One Thing

While armchair and tenured economists took Trump to task last week over his reportedly "overly optimistic" GDP projections, it is worth recalling that in 2009 when Obama took office in the midst of a recession, the former president projected GDP growth of 3.5% to 4.5% for 2010-2014. He never even got above 3%.

These Are Times Of General Corruption

When historians look back on this period of the last forty years and diagnose what went wrong, they might do worse than to conclude that at the root of it was a general failure of character, from the top down.

Goldman: Investors Will Soon Realize They Were Too Optimistic

"We are approaching the point of maximum optimism and S&P 500 will give back recent gains as investors embrace the reality that tax reform is likely to provide a smaller, later tailwind to corporate earnings than originally expected."

There's Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing

This turn inward - protectionism if you will - in the UK, US and many other places, is an inevitable development that follows from declining growth and soaring debt. Entire societies will have to be re-built from the ground up, and people will want to do that themselves, not have it dictated by strangers. At the same time, of course, those who profit most from centralization want that to continue. They can’t, but they will try, and hard.

The Coming Bear Market

The bears are dead. Long live the bears. And that, in a nutshell, describes every bubble and emerging bear market there ever was...

Spanish, French Bonds Jump After ECB Sees "Room For Trade Off On Capital Key"

While typically uneventful, this morning the release of minutes from the ECB's January 18-19 meeting prompted a spike in both French and Spanish bonds, with yields dropping between 6 and 8 bps after the ECB said that “limited and temporary deviations” from the capital key “were possible and inevitable.”

Fed's Harker Blames 'Prime-Aged' American Male Joblessness On Drug Abuse

For 60 years the labor force participation rate of 25-54 year old men in America has declined. There are many reasons for this existential decline, but Philly Federal Reserve President Pat Harker explained today during a Q&A session that he is concerned that more 25-54 year old men are out of the workforce and blamed "drug abuse" for the problem. Of course, this is not the first time Fed officials have claimed 'drug abuse' as an excuse for the failure of their policies.