recovery

3 Things: Fed Hike, Fed Late, Fed Miss

“The simple message is the economy is doing well. We have confidence in the robustness of the economy and its resilience to shocks.” – Janet Yellen, March 15, 2017.

Really?

Global Stocks Soar To Record Highs On "Dovish" Fed, Dutch Vote

World stock indexes surged to record highs on Thursday while the dollar traded close to a one-month low after the Federal Reserve hiked U.S. interest rates but signaled no pick-up in the pace of tightening, while the Dutch elections were broadly interpreted as a drop in support for Europe's anti-establishment powers.

Puerto Rico Bonds Are Plunging Again

Puerto Rico bonds are in the midst of the biggest three-day rout since April 2016, when island officials advanced a moratorium bill that paved the way for the first default on its general-obligation debt.

WTI/RBOB Sink As Production Surge Trumps Inventory Drawdowns

API's surprise crude draw sparked a recovery off Saudi production lows overnight in WTI and RBOB, and DOE's data confirmed it with a 237k crude draw (against expectations for a 3.13mm build). Cushing saw the biggest build since the first week of December but Gaosline and Distillates saw big draws. However, yet another surge in US crude production appears to have trumped the inventory data and WTI/RBOB are fading for now.

U.S. Shale Faces A Workforce Shortage

A problem for the U.S. shale oil and gas industry that analysts and observers have warned about for a long time has materialized: there is a shortage of workers.

Frontrunning: March 14

  • U.S. East Coast Braces for Late-Winter Blizzard (WSJ)
  • U.S. Blizzard Grounds Flights, Raises Power as Trump Tweets (BBG)
  • Debt Ceiling Fight May Be Too Tempting for Trump to Pass Up (BBG)
  • Russia appears to deploy forces in Egypt, eyes on Libya role (Reuters)
  • EU headscarf ban ruling sparks faith group backlash (Reuters)

"2017 Will Be A Tipping Point" - Why Some Think This Is The Next "Big Short"

"These malls are dying, and we see very limited prospect of a turnaround in performance" according to a January report from Alder Hill, which began shorting the securities. "We expect 2017 to be a tipping point." Indeed, cracks have appeared: prices on the BBB- pool of CMBS have tumbled from 96 cents on the dollar in late January to 87 cents last week