recovery

With the EUR plunging and everyone primed for dramatic action by Draghi, especially following today's disappointing inflation data where November CPI rose just 0.1%, below the 0.2% expected, the former Goldmanite may still disappoint. According to Market News, "the high bar set by expectations, coupled with notable opposition against aggressive action on the Governing Council as economic data developed largely as expected, creates a risk that the ECB will under-deliver Thursday."

• Yellen, in back-to-back appearances, could close out era of zero rates (Reuters)
• ECB stimulus hopes keep Europe stocks at three-month high (Reuters)
• ECB to Test the Limits of Its Bond-Buying Program (WSJ)
• Watch for U.S. recession, zero interest rates in China next year, Citi says (Reuters)
• Euro’s Loss Being Yen’s Gain May Be Headache for BOJ (BBG)
• Yahoo Board to Weigh Sale of Internet Business (WSJ)
• Islamic State Prevents Civilians From Fleeing Iraqi City of Ramadi (WSJ)

It is only logical that a day after the S&P500 surged, hitting Goldman's 2016 target of 2,100 more than a year early because the US manufacturing sector entered into a recession, that Europe would follow and when Eurostat reported an hour ago that European headline inflation of 0.1% missed expectations of a modest 0.2% increase (core rising 0.9% vs Exp. 1.1%), European stocks predictably surged not on any improvement to fundamentals of course, but simply because the EURUSD stumbled once more, sliding by 40 pips to a session low below the 1.06 level.

In a perfectly timed update to his infamous April 2009 "worse then The Great Depression" chart, Kevin O'Rourke has unveiled his latest chart-du-poor. With US manufacturing collapsing, bond yields tumbling, and The Fed about to hike rates to prove they can, this so-called 'recovery' has fallen below that following The Great Depression. As O'Rourke sums up, "pretty dismal stuff. Let’s hope that we can at least avoid the famous 1937-38 double dip."

With the dismal 10% drop in China Zhongdi Dairy's IPO as it started trading, it appears Chinese investors are losing faith in the highest-flying stocks. Following Monday's miracle afternoon rescue, ChiNext (tech-heavy) and Shenzhen (tech and growth-heavy) indices are plunging. Shanghai, which initially rose thanks to strength in housing stocks, has given up all its gains as last night's Schrodinger PMIs were neither good nor bad enough to prompt immediate massive monetary liquidity tsunami.

The central banks are simply trapped. They have bought in bonds under the theory that this will stimulate the economy by injecting cash. But there are several problems with this entire concept. This is an elitist view to say the least for the money injected does not stimulate the economy for it never reaches the consumer. This attempt to stimulate by increasing the money supply assumes that it does not matter who has the money... The attempt to “manage” the economy from a macro level without considering the capital flow within the system is leading to disaster.

It is vital to give proper consideration to the improper liberties that are being taken by those with “unwarranted influence” and “misplaced power”.   Value extraction has replaced value creation in pursuit of short?term, self?serving benefits at the expense of long?term stability and durability of corporate America and therefore the country as a whole.  As citizens, our obligation is to be well?informed, cognizant, outspoken and to vote. The words of men may temporarily suspend but they do not alter the laws of financial dynamics. The fundamentals always take precedence eventually.

"At first read, the report recalls an obituary. There is no room for any growth in the coming quarters. The situation is really, really bad."

When oil prices were spiking in 2008 and some commentators were predicting prices of $200 a barrel, many pundits and politicians turned to blame speculators and hedge funds for pushing prices upwards. That period of high prices passed and speculators avoided any tough new regulations in part due to mix empirical evidence surrounding the causes of price volatility. Now though, the opposite case is being made; hedge funds shorting oil may be behind recent volatility and the current low price of oil.

What rate hike? Following a relentless barrage of recessionary industrial and manufacturing data, moments ago the Business Roundtable released its latest, fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, and it is an absolute disaster.

• Global Stocks Edge Higher on Expected ECB Stimulus (WSJ)
• Moment of truth as Puerto Rico faces crucial debt payment (Reuters)
• Obama urges Turkey to reduce tensions with Russia, stresses support (Reuters)
• Russian Media Takes Aim at Turkey (WSJ)
• Support Grows for U.S. Commando Raids to Fight Islamic State (BBG)
• Yuan Drops as SDR Approval Seen Prompting PBOC to Reduce Support (BBG)

There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

Following the earlier onslaught of weak (and strong) economic data, China has revealed its official and Caixin-based PMI surveys for Manufacturing and Services. Sure enough, while China's official manufacturing data missed (to Aug 2012 lows), Ciaxin's survey beat, jumping to June 2015 highs. even as China's official Services PMI beat expectations, bouncing off 15-month lows. The question now is - given The IMF's inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR basket - will The PBOC devalue (as offshore Yuan implies) to juice a collapsing manufacturing sector...  or is China's manufacturing now improving if one looks at the "other" PMI?

It is Pedro's "courage to write" what Bernanke conveniently forgot to add in his memoir, that makes this review so much more memorable than the generic sycophantic tripe written by his "access journalism" peers.

Three weeks ago, we noted with some alarm that the number of women age 18 to 34 living with their parents is now the highest since record keeping began more than seven decades ago. Now, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department (which someone clearly forgot to double seasonally adjust), we discover that nearly a fifth of males aged 25-34 live in their parent's basement while the aggregate number for the 18 to 34 bracket inclusive of both women and men rose to 31.5% as of March.