recovery

"At first read, the report recalls an obituary. There is no room for any growth in the coming quarters. The situation is really, really bad."

When oil prices were spiking in 2008 and some commentators were predicting prices of $200 a barrel, many pundits and politicians turned to blame speculators and hedge funds for pushing prices upwards. That period of high prices passed and speculators avoided any tough new regulations in part due to mix empirical evidence surrounding the causes of price volatility. Now though, the opposite case is being made; hedge funds shorting oil may be behind recent volatility and the current low price of oil.

What rate hike? Following a relentless barrage of recessionary industrial and manufacturing data, moments ago the Business Roundtable released its latest, fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, and it is an absolute disaster.

• Global Stocks Edge Higher on Expected ECB Stimulus (WSJ)
• Moment of truth as Puerto Rico faces crucial debt payment (Reuters)
• Obama urges Turkey to reduce tensions with Russia, stresses support (Reuters)
• Russian Media Takes Aim at Turkey (WSJ)
• Support Grows for U.S. Commando Raids to Fight Islamic State (BBG)
• Yuan Drops as SDR Approval Seen Prompting PBOC to Reduce Support (BBG)

There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

Following the earlier onslaught of weak (and strong) economic data, China has revealed its official and Caixin-based PMI surveys for Manufacturing and Services. Sure enough, while China's official manufacturing data missed (to Aug 2012 lows), Ciaxin's survey beat, jumping to June 2015 highs. even as China's official Services PMI beat expectations, bouncing off 15-month lows. The question now is - given The IMF's inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR basket - will The PBOC devalue (as offshore Yuan implies) to juice a collapsing manufacturing sector...  or is China's manufacturing now improving if one looks at the "other" PMI?

It is Pedro's "courage to write" what Bernanke conveniently forgot to add in his memoir, that makes this review so much more memorable than the generic sycophantic tripe written by his "access journalism" peers.

Three weeks ago, we noted with some alarm that the number of women age 18 to 34 living with their parents is now the highest since record keeping began more than seven decades ago. Now, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department (which someone clearly forgot to double seasonally adjust), we discover that nearly a fifth of males aged 25-34 live in their parent's basement while the aggregate number for the 18 to 34 bracket inclusive of both women and men rose to 31.5% as of March.

The game of enabling more debt by lowering interest rates and loosening lending standards is coming to an end. Debt is not a sustainable substitute for income, and households are increasingly waking up to this realization. Say good-bye to Christmas, America, and debt-based spending in general--except, of course, for the federal government, which can always borrow another couple trillion dollars on the backs of our grandchildren.

"We think that the equities risk-reward will be less attractive than it was in the past few years. We reduce our equities OW in a balanced portfolio to a minimal one, at 5% vs benchmark, the lowest we have had since the current upcycle started. The long period of indiscriminately buying any dip might be coming to an end."

Americans today are blissfully distracted by their iGadgets, plotting out their holiday shopping strategies, leasing new cars, eating out, and buying advance tickets to the new Star Wars movie. They don’t see the wicked winter squalls ahead which will try their souls. We are experiencing the lull before the storms, but the storms are surely coming. The potential for catastrophe is high and burying our heads in the sand is not a strategy.

A simmering rage is bubbling below the surface as 20% of American households rely on food stamps to survive, the percentage of Americans in the labor force stands at a four decade low, real household income remains stagnant at 1988 levels, corporate profits have reached record levels while corporations continue to fire Americans – shipping their jobs overseas, and the six mega-corporations representing the mainstream media cover up the truth, mislead the public with propaganda, while celebrating the .1% as saviors of our economy. There is nothing more volatile to societal stability than millions of unemployed men, growing angry and resentful towards the ruling class for their lot in life.

After failed breakouts earlier in the year, the charts of the Asian Tiger Cub markets suggest more trouble may lie ahead... as The Fed's decision looms.

Hot on the heels of the biggest collapse in Australian Capex ever, and just as we predicted back in 2012, we thought it about time to once again re-visit - Godot-like - the never-ending wait for 'recovery' (or ongoing crash) in Capital Expenditure around the world.

With bond yields hitting ever-increasingly negative levels and stock prices inexorably rising on a wave of real and promised liquidity from Draghi, one could be forgiven for believing the hype about Europe's recovery (had we not seen decades of failure for Japanese QE and 6 years for The Fed). So amid all this renewed hope, with its spiralling nationalism and warmongery - France just suffered the largest jump in joblessness in over 2 years to a new record high of 3.5898 million unemployed.