recovery

The Geography Of Jobs: Mapping The Recovery

The current 'boom'in energy production, the hangover from the housing bubble, and the long-term decline in manufacturing employment are combining to shift the employment profile of the US economy. But as Deloitte Unioversity press notes, the national story of slow recovery obscures the more complicated regional picture: As is the case during most business cycles, the pace of recovery has been very uneven among the states. At present, only 16 states plus the District of Columbia have employment rates at least one percent higher than they were prior to the start of the recession. Overall, as the following chart shows, Americans have been struggling to find work, but some states and industries have had an easier time than others.

One Shot, In Critical Condition, 7 Arrested After Protesters Break Ferguson Curfew

As we reported last night, when the Ferguson curfew hitting at midnight, while most of the protesters dispersed, many still remained on the streets despite a clear warning by the police department that anyone still rioting/looting/protesting would be arrested. Which is when things went from bad to worse for yet another sequential night, and culminated with the arrest of seven people and the shooting of an unknown person who is currently in critical condition.

Jackson Hole Preview: Do Not Expect Policy Shift

Going into this year’s Jackson Hole meeting, it does not appear to BofAML's Ethan Harris that the FOMC is leaning toward a policy change as in 2010, let alone on the verge of a big shift as in 2012. Instead, the Fed is in a bit of a limbo state as it waits for clear evidence that 1Q GDP was a fluke and convincing signs of stronger wages. With significant policy changes a long way off, and with the intense market focus on Jackson Hole, we expect the Fed Chair to try to say nothing interesting about the policy outlook.

5 Things To Ponder: Multifarious Cogitation

This weekend’s “Things To Ponder” is comprised of a variety of readings that cover a fairly broad spectrum from educational to informative and even a little bit sarcastic.

Ebola Outbreak "Moving Faster" Than Reported Cases Suggest, May Be Far Worse WHO Warns

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa continues to escalate, with 1975 cases and 1069 deaths reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, according to the WHO, but warns that "there is evidence that the number of reported cases and deaths vastly underestimate the magnitude of the outbreak." While Nigeria remains 'contained' for now, Ireland now has its first suspected case of Ebola according to The Journal. What is perhaps most concerning is Doctors Without Borders warn the ebola outbreak is "moving faster" than they can handle.

Frontrunning: August 15

  • Barack Obama's 'vacation from hell' (Politico)
  • Russian aid convoy checked; military vehicles mass near Ukraine (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Says APCs Entered From Russia to Aid Insurgents (BBG)
  • Islamic State Said to Challenge Al-Qaeda for Leadership (BBG)
  • Missouri protests calmer after governor puts black police captain in charge (Reuters)
  • Finally someone will prove the US is a pyramid scheme (in a 1000 page presentation): Ackman’s Pershing Square Sues U.S. Over Fannie, Freddie (BBG)
  • Banks, Financial Firms Load Up on Cheap Debt (WSJ)
  • Putin to Meet Finnish President as Threat of Cold War Grows (BBG)

3 Things Worth Thinking About

The first half of this week has been very interesting from an economic, financial and geopolitical viewpoint. Despite what appears to be globally increasing risks, the financial markets have seemed relatively unfazed. Historically, such calm has always existed prior to the eventual storm. This week’s “3 Things” takes a look at some of the “rising risks” that we believe are being ignored which could potentially be harmful to individual's portfolios.

GoldCore's picture

This is especially the case in Ukraine where the currency has lost more than half of its value versus gold (see chart above and below). Gold in Ukraine Hrvynia is up 70% since the start of 2014. People who own gold in Ukraine would laugh at you, if you said that gold is not a safe haven. As would people in many countries in South America, the Middle East and Africa.

Frontrunning: August 14

  • Police fire tear gas, stun grenades at Missouri protesters (Reuters)
  • Putin’s Pipeline Bypassing Ukraine at Risk Amid Conflict (BBG)
  • Russia's Largest Oil Company Seeks $42 billion to Weather Sanctions (WSJ)
  • Shells hit central Donetsk, Russian aid convoy heads towards border (Reuters)
  • U.S. Tightens Sanctions, Putting More Russian Companies at Risk (BBG)
  • How to Blindly Score 43% Profit Overnight in China Stocks (BBG)
  • Tears guaranteed: San Diego Pension Dials Up the Risk to Combat a Shortfall (WSJ)
  • Euro Recovery Halts as Germany Shrinks, France Stagnates (BBG)
  • Billionaire Found in Middle of Bribery Case Avoids U.S. Probe (BBG)
  • Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama 'Hug It Out' on Martha's Vineyard (WSJ)

Here Comes The European Triple-Dip: Negative German GDP Sends Bunds Under 1% For The First Time Ever

The hammer finally hit for Europe when overnight both Germany and France reported Q2 GDP prints that missed expectations, the first actually contracting at a 0.2% rate with consensus looking for -0.1%, while France remained flat vs expectations for a tiny 0.1% rise. As a reminder, this GDP is the revised one, which already includes the estimated contribution of drugs and prostitution, suggesting the actual underlying economic growth is far worse than even reported. Then again, this is hardly surprising considering all the abysmal data out of Europe and the rest of the world in recent weeks, and with the Russian trade war sure to trim even more growth, look for all of Europe to join Italy in its first upcoming triple-dip recession in history.