recovery

Europe April Manufacturing Summary: France's Loss Is Germany's Gain

There is a reason why while Germany has been delighted to keep the Euro as its currency, in the process keeping a substantial discount to where the Deutsche Mark would be trading if it weren't for the implicit FX subsidies by ther Eurozone members, France has been increasingly more panicked and vocal about the soaring EUR. That reason became apparent this morning when Markit reported that France PMI for April both declined from the March print of 52.1, and missed expectations of 51.9, printing at 50.9. Same thing for the Services PMI which at 50.3, both missed expectations of 51.3, and dropped from 51.5. France's loss however was Germany's gain, which beat expetations across the board.

David Stockman Blasts "America's Housing Fiasco Is On You, Alan Greenspan"

So far we have experienced 7 million foreclosures. Beyond that there are still 9 million homeowners seriously underwater on their mortgages and there are millions more who are stranded in place because they don’t have enough positive equity to cover transactions costs and more stringent down payment requirements. And that’s before the next down-turn in housing prices - a development which will show-up any day. In short, the socio-economic mayhem implicit in the graph below is not the end of the line or a one-time nightmare that has subsided and is now working its way out of the system as the Kool-Aid drinkers would have you believe based on the “incoming data” conveyed in the chart. Instead, the serial bubble makers in the Eccles Building have already laid the ground-work for the next up-welling of busted mortgages, home foreclosures and the related wave of disposed families and social distress.

302 Reasons To Jump Ship

"We were wearing life jackets. We had time... If people had jumped into the water... they could have been rescued. But we were told not to go out." An entire ship full of passengers dutifully followed the instructions set forth by the crew. The "experts" told them what to do...."We're putting on our life vests. They're telling us to wait and stay put, so we're waiting..." Yet as it turned out, the ferry quickly became submerged. And following orders cost many their lives. 302 are either dead or missing. Just like Sewol, many countries in the West are sinking, and it’s up to you whether you sink with them or jump ship while there’s still time.

Spot The Massive Depression, And The Tiny Recovery, In This Existing Home Sales Chart

When it comes to home purchases, there are the rich, with $1MM+ existing home  transactions up a recoveryish 13% in the West, and then there are the poor, where in the cheapest bucket have crashed a depression-like -45%. Why is this an issue? Because homes priced $500K and lower represent 90% of all existing home sales. Homes priced $1 million and above are just 2.1%. Or, to summarize, Rich 1 - Poor 0... Just like the Fed wanted it.

 

Number Of Middle Age Californians Living With Their Parents Soars

For seven years through 2012, the number of Californians aged 50 to 64 who live in their parents' homes swelled 67.6% to about 194,000, according to the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and the Insight Center for Community Economic Development. Many more young adults live with their parents than those in their 50s and early 60s live with theirs. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 1.6 million Californians have taken up residence in their childhood bedrooms, according to the data. Though that's a 33% jump from 2006, the pace is half that of the 50 to 64 age group.

Tuesday Humor: QE Was For "The Man On The Street" Says Chairman Emeritus Bernanke

The proud recipient of today's $250,000 invoice for propaganda rendered by Ben Bernanke will be the Economic Club of Canada...

BERNANKE: FED ACTIONS DIDN'T FAVOR WALL STREET OVER MAIN STREET
Bernanke Says US Economy Is Heading Towards Complete Recovery

Just don't tell Obama (or the Democrats who have been told not to mention the 'recovery'), or the record number of middle-aged people living with their parents, or the almost imperceptible rise in the employed population since QE began...

Another Sign That Central Planning Works: Condom Shortage In Cuba

Going to Cuba is like going back in time. The country lacks basic products and services, many of which we consider staples in modern life. All of this stems from a system of central planning in which government essentially owns and controls… everything. Businesses. Property. Medical services. Anything larger than a bicycle. Teams of bureaucrats lord over the Cuban economy trying to manipulate and control every possible variable. They dole out housing allowances. They set manufacturing quotas. They control prices of goods and services. Nevermind that any high school economics student understands why price controls don’t work… and typically lead to shortages. That’s precisely what’s happening right now. Condoms are now at critically low levels in Cuba. And the government’s solution is to sell expired condoms from two years ago. It’s genius.

Retail Store Closures Soar In 2014: At Highest Pace Since Lehman Collapse

What a better way to celebrate the rigged markets that are telegraphing a "durable" recovery, than with a Credit Suisse report showing, beyond a reasonable doubt, that when it comes to traditional bricks and mortar retailers, who have now closed more stores, or over 2,400 units, so far in 2014 and well double the total amount of storefront closures in 2013, this year has been the worst year for conventional discretionary spending since the start of the great financial crisis!

Frontrunning: April 21

  • Putin playing the long game over Russian kin in Ukraine (Reuters)
  • U.S.-Russia Relations Come Full Circle After Ukraine (WSJ)
  • Japan PM makes offering to Yasukuni Shrine, angers China, South Korea (Reuters)
  • In Gold Miners' Talks, Scale Is Crucial: Combined Barrick-Newmont Would Be Able to Trim Costs (WSJ)
  • SEC Said to Weigh Shining Light on Brokers’ Stock Routing (BBG)... and protmply unweigh it
  • Exelon Beating Facebook in S&P 500 After Valuation Scare (BBG)
  • Court Case May Help Define 'Insider Trading' (WSJ)
  • Spanish banks face tough rivalry in small companies bet (Reuters)

JPY Drops, Nikkei Pops As Japanese Trade Balance Nears Record Deficit (36th In A Row)

UPDATE: Goldman folds on "J-Curve" - the pace of that improvement will be far more modest than in past periods of yen weakness.

Another month, another colossal miss for the "waiting-for-the-j-curve" Japanese trade balance. At 1.7tn, this month's adjusted trade balance is the 2nd largest on record, and is the 36th month in a row - the worst March deficit ever. Exports missed dramatically (+1.8% vs 6.5% expected) so, so much for devaluation driving competitiveness in a globally interdependent product development cycle - nearly the lowest YoY gain in exports since Abenomics began. Imports rose more than expected (+18.1% vs 16.2%) as the devalued JPY makes living standards more difficult to maintain. The result of this dismal data - JPY weakness which can mean only one thing - a 120 point rally in the Nikkei.

Democrats Told "Don't Mention 'Economic Recovery' - It's A Political Loser"

Democratic strategists have made a blunt declaration in an election-year memo, according to AP, "Don't talk about the economic recovery. It's a political loser." Stan Greenberg, James Carville and others wrote that in head-to-head polling tests the mere mention of the word "recovery" is trumped by a Republican assertion that the Obama administration has had six years to get the economy moving and its policies haven't worked. But, but, but... stocks are at all-time highs?

Princeton Study Confirms 'US Is An Oligarchy'

"...policymaking is dominated by powerful business organizations and a small number of affluent Americans, then America’s claims to being a democratic society are seriously threatened...

...even when 80% of the population favored a particular public policy change, it was only instituted 43% of the time."