• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

recovery

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CAT Slaughtered With Epic Q3 Revenue, Earnings Miss And Guidance Cut: Sees "Good Deal Of Uncertainty Worldwide"





With every passing quarter, Caterpillar, perhaps the last truly industrial company in the epically misnamed Dow Jones (non)-Industrial Average, provides an ever clearer answer to the question we posed this past July, namely "Is CAT Nothing But The Dow's Most Overpriced Dog?" The most recent affirmative response came moments ago when the company announced Q3 earnings which were for lack of a better word, disastrous: EPS came at $1.45 on expectations of $1.67, revenues missed by a whopping $1 billion, when the sales print $13.4 billion missed expectations of $14.47 billion - perhaps the biggest top-line miss in the company's history since the Lehman bankruptcy. But it was the guidance that is slaying the stock right now: "The company has revised its 2013 outlook and now expects sales and revenues to be about $55 billion, with profit per share of about $5.50.  The previous outlook for 2013 sales and revenues was a range of $56 to $58 billion with profit per share of about $6.50 at the middle of that range." But don't worry: despite our continuous warnings about the sad state of this company the trend, it is only "transitory", and any minute now thing may get better. Unless they don't.

 
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Futures Slump As China Tapering Fears Trump Hope Of Extended Yellen Liquidityhose





There was some hilarious news overnight: such that supposedly Spain's GDP rose 0.1% in Q3 thus ending a 2+ year recession. There is no point to even comment on this "recovery" - we will merely remind that starving your economy of imports for the sake of generating a GDP-boosting trade surplus, while consumption declines, solves nothing and point readers to charts of Spanish non-performing loans, housing prices, and unemployment, oh and the massive Bad Bank of course, and leave it at that. In terms of real news, futures are lower following a drubbing in Asia over the previously discussed concerns over tighter Chinese monetary policy. Amusingly, as Reuters notes, this has hit global shares still high on hopes of extended U.S. stimulus on Wednesday, when the dollar tentatively steadied at an eight-month low after its latest slide. The immediate casualty is the USDJPY, which continues to slide and is approaching the 200SMA. In short: fears that China may have resumed tapering have offset yesterday's hope that "horrible" job numbers mean no Fed tapering until mid-2014.... New Normal fundamentals.

 
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Fitch's "Reserve Currency" Loophole: 80-90% Debt/GDP Rule Does Not Apply To You





It would appear that French-owned Fitch, following its rating-watch-negative shift on the US credit rating last week, has got a tap on the shoulder from the powers that be. As Hollande complains about Obama's espionage, Fitch has released a statement explaining how the USA can do whatever it wants and not be downgraded. With only the Chinese ratings agency "able" to openly comment on the creditworthiness of the USA, it is no surprise that Fitch gave itself an "out" on the basis of the USDollar's exorbitant previlege.

 
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Blast From The Past: "Unemployment Rate With And Without The Recovery Plan"





Putting today's 7.2% unemployment rate (which is actually over 11% if using an accurate labor participation rate), here is the chart that puts it into perspective courtesy of the an "analysis" by Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein titled "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan" from January 10, 2009. Oh yes, the ARRA did pass...

 
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Chart Of The Day: Average New York Banker Makes 5.2 More Than Average Non-Banker





Behold the Wealth Effect: according to the NY State comptroller, the average NYC banker made $360,700 in 2012. This is 5.2 more than the average non-financial job in the city (i.e., all other jobs).

 
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If You Believe In The Recovery, Do Not Look At This Chart





Just a few moar years of unlimited open-ended quantitative money printing and we are sure this will all be fixed...

 
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Dismal Jobs Reports Sends S&P To New All-Time High





The 3rd miss in a row for private payrolls was enough to spark an engorgement of all things Federal-Reserve-liquidity related. Gold is jumping, Bond yields are tumbling, the USD is crumbling, and the S&P 500 is soaring to new all-time highs... sure, why not...

 
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Complete Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview





  • Deutsche Bank 170k
  • Bank of America 170k
  • HSBC 171k
  • Citigroup 180k
  • UBS 195k
  • JP Morgan 195k
  • Barclays 200k
  • Goldman Sachs 200k
 
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Frontrunning: October 22





  • Despite budget win, Obama has weak hand with Congress (Reuters)
  • Carney Brings In McKinsey for Bank of England Strategy Rethink (BBG)
  • Bill Gates Buys Stake in Spanish Construction Company FCC (WSJ)
  • Jerusalem Mayor Barkat Seeks New Term in Race Arabs Sitting Out (BBG)
  • J.P. Morgan Aimed to Limit Damage (WSJ)
  • EU Lawmakers Reject Draghi Call for Bank Bondholder Clemency (BBG)
  • Wall Street Profits May Halve in Second Half (WSJ)
  • Petrobras-led group wins Brazil oil auction with minimum bid (Reuters)
  • Apple to Refresh IPads Amid Challenges for Tablet Share (BBG)
  • Italy plans to offer guarantees on govt bond derivatives (Reuters)
  • Berkshire Beats Apple as Favorite Stock of Tiger 21 Group (BBG)
 
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Stocks Stuck Ahead Of Postponed Payrolls





Overnight global markets have gone decidedly nowhere, in expectation of the long-overdue September payroll report, and seemingly oblivious of the Goldman pre-announcement all clear that "Any positive number will be discounted because it came before the DC theatrics and if it’s weak it confirms that tapering should be put off longer." In other words, both the September, and accompanying July and August revisions (recall it was the revisions where the August NFP number ended the FOMC's taper talk) are meaningless because everything will be spun bullish. For those who do care - mostly headline reacting HFT algos - here is the summary: consensus is for 180k (unemployment rate unchanged at 7.3%). Note that the survey period for today’s payrolls report was prior to the shutdown which started on October 1st. As for how the amusingly named "market" will react to the news: see Goldman quote above, or better yet: just call the NYFed trading desk.

 
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Peter Schiff Asks "Is This The Green Light For Gold?"





It is rare that investors are given a road map. It is rarer still that the vast majority of those who get it are unable to understand the clear signs and directions it contains. When this happens the few who can actually read the map find themselves in an enviable position. Such is currently the case with gold and gold-related investments.

 
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Europe's Recovery In Context: So Far In Q3, 13 Of 17 Reporting Companies Miss Revenues





That the US is set to have its third consecutive quarter with revenue declines (followed by the fourth in a few months, when all the misses will be blamed on - what else - the Tea Party), is by now well-known and greeted by stocks which have given up on any fundamentals (that this happens even as "one-time" restructuring charges which actually recur every quarter, such as JPM's most recent $9 billion in fees, are added back to non-GAAP EPS, and make EPS increase is just as well-known). But it is not so much the US we focus on in this blurb, but Europe, where for some mindboggling reason the consensus has rapidly shifted in recent months, toward a prevailing sentiment of recovery. So here is a quick datapoint from Deutsche putting the European "recovery" in context.

 
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Key Events And Issues In The Coming Week





Last week, the main area of focus was the political situation in the US where Democrats and Republicans finally agreed upon a short term fix to reopen the government and extend the debt ceiling. The conclusion of this saw equity markets rally to all time highs in Europe and the US, with the USD continuing to slide as markets turn their attention to the Fed’s QE programme and push back expectations of when the central bank will begin to pull back on asset purchases. With the government now reopen, attention will turn to the numerous data releases that were delayed but will now take place over the next two weeks, including the jobs report which is due on Tuesday. The release of this report will once again be used to help predict when the Fed will begin to taper QE however, recent comments from Fed members have suggested that October is likely to be too soon trim bond buying due to the lack of key macroeconomic data and the unknown economic impact as a result of the government closing for 16 days.

 
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Frontrunning: October 21





  • FHFA Is Said to Seek at Least $6 Billion From BofA for MBS Sales (BBG)
  • Record Pact Is on the Table, But J.P. Morgan Faces Fight (WSJ)
  • Magnetar Goes Long Ohio Town While Shorting Its Tax Base (BBG)
  • Mini-Wall Street' Rises in Hamptons (WSJ)
  • Obama to call healthcare website glitches 'unacceptable' as fix sought (Reuters)
  • Starbucks Charges Higher Prices in China, State Media Says (WSJ)
  • Cruz Is Unapologetic as Republicans Criticize Shutdown (BBG)
  • Berlusconi struggles to keep party united after revolt (Reuters)
  • SAC Defections Accelerate as Cohen Approaches Settlement (BBG)
 
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Another BTFD Week Begins





Following last week's last two day panic buying driven not by data (since in the US it has been delayed until late October and November, and elsewhere in the world it is just getting worse) but by the catalyst that the US isn't going to default (yes, that's all that is needed to push the S&P to all time highs) and just hopes that the tapering - that horrifying prospect of the Fed reducing its monthly monetization by $15 billion from $85 to $70 billion in line with the decline in the US deficit - will be delayed until March or June 2014 because, you see, the Fed isn't sure how the economy is doing, it makes no sense to even comment on the market. Squeezes, momentum ignitions, rumors about what Messers Bernanke and Yellen had for breakfast, Goldman's 2015 S&P forecast of 2100: that's the lunacy that passes for market moving factors. News, and reality, have long since been put in the dust. Just keep an eye on flashing read headlines, and try to buy (remember: anyone caught selling by the NSA is guaranteed a lifetime of annual IRS audits) ahead of the algos. That's what Bernanke's centrally-planned "market" has devolved to.

 
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