recovery

Tyler Durden's picture

V-Shaped Revenue Recovery Combined With L-Shaped CapEx Growth





And thus the original question is how quickly can the accumulated corporate cash buffer be converted into revenue growth? It seems companies don't really care to answer that: the growth will come from "elsewhere" they will be happy to announce, and refer you to the GDP - where all "growth" comes from transfer payments, and other fictitious items indicating "growth" yet all those merely do is sucker more and more people into the stock market at bubble valuations (why are not more companies doing follow on offerings, absent REITs of course? Is it because institutional stock managers know that valuations, which this is all really about, are simply insane?). Absent some investment in CapEx you can kiss your V-shaped revenue (and thus earnings) recovery goodbye. But who honestly cares about how a stable economy works any more when you have trillions in excess liquidity provided by Bernanke Capital LLC?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: The Recovery, The Rally And Our Portfolios





"So on we go, riding the wave of yet another recovery fueled by stimulus. They work great,
until they don’t; sadly, the MSCI World Equity index trails money market fund returns since
1989, when Fed policy began in earnest to solve investment bubbles gone wrong by setting the
real cost of money to zero. Today, a sober view argues for a portfolio with moderate exposure to global markets, but with a close eye on the fissures which did not exist at the inception of prior bull markets (e.g., 1947, 1962, 1982, 1991). Giga-stimulus carries the day for now, but the morning after may come sooner this time around…"

 
Travis's picture

Washington & China to Meet on Trade, Economic Recovery & the Zen of Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of China





Monday the Obama administration and China begin talks- namely on currency tensions, the US budget deficit and the massively huge trade gap with China.

China, in addition to the hundreds of billions of low-cost, high-labor manufactured goods they’ve come to be known for; are importing 150 Chinese economic officials, in one of the largest visits ever to the United States.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Visteon Final Bond Recovery Price: 3 Cents On The Dollar





Market tests are useful as they best indicate just what is the real value of hundreds of billions of distressed securities stripped away from any unwarranted optimism and green shoot propaganda. Today's Visteon CDS Auction was just one such test. And if there was a way to grade the test, it would be an emphatic F: not so much for bankrupt Visteon which is already in the morgue, but for other comparable auto suppliers whose bonds and loans recently have seen overambitious PMs buying their debt as if every single credit instrument would be rolled into Taxpayer Capital LLC's Worthless Assets Fund.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Visteon Final Bond Recovery Price: 3 Cents On The Dollar





Market tests are useful as they best indicate just what is the real value of hundreds of billions of distressed securities stripped away from any unwarranted optimism and green shoot propaganda. Today's Visteon CDS Auction was just one such test.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Visteon Final Bond Recovery Price: 3 Cents On The Dollar





Market tests are useful as they best indicate just what is the real value of hundreds of billions of distressed securities stripped away from any unwarranted optimism and green shoot propaganda. Today's Visteon CDS Auction was just one such test.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Recent Average CDS Auction Recovery Rate: 10%





Today's RH Donnelley CDS auction closed at an abysmal 4.875 final price (on top of the IMM). When will DTCC/JPM change the default recovery on bonds for the CDSW calc from 40 to 10? Why 10% - because, as the chart below demonstrates, that is what the weighted average CDS auction recovery has been for the past 8 months.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Recent Average CDS Auction Recovery Rate: 10%





Today's RH Donnelley CDS auction closed at an abysmal 4.875 final price (on top of the IMM). When will DTCC/JPM change the default recovery on bonds for the CDSW calc from 40 to 10? Why 10% - because, as the chart below demonstrates, that is what the weighted average CDS auction recovery has been for the past 8 months.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

No Recovery For Mortgages





Just as the futures buying hand starts gobbling up them spoos on the horrible housing and mortgage news, mortgages fail to stage any recovery. But please, keep equities artificially high - money out of treasuries into equities, on the road to 7% mortgages, is exactly what the doctor ordered.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

No Recovery For Mortgages





Just as the futures buying hand starts gobbling up them spoos on the horrible housing and mortgage news, mortgages fail to stage any recovery. But please, keep equities artificially high - money out of treasuries into equities, on the road to 7% mortgages, is exactly what the doctor ordered.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

False recovery continues on the back of housing numbers





On today's release of housing numbers, Bloomberg reports more false positives on the economic recovery path. On the second straight month of pending home sales rising (up 3.2%), many are calling this the bottom, pretty much THE leading indicator that we are close to out of the woods. I mean, come on... housing got us into this mess, it'll get us out, right?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Should Be Good For At Least Half A Point In Recovery





Lehman bondholders have been reduced to selling Lehman branded merchandise, including pens, canvas bags, umbrellas, and stress balls on Ebay to generate recoveries according to Bloomberg.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Road To Recovery





Goldman analysts today provide a very useful checklist to keep tabs of where we stand on the proverbial road out of hell. As GS says, its US economic forecast calls for stabilization by middle 2009, and after annualized declines of 7% and 3% for Q1 and Q2, the bank expects real GDP to inch up at a 1% rate over the second half of the year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Road To Recovery





Goldman analysts today provide a very useful checklist to keep tabs of where we stand on the proverbial road out of hell. As GS says, its US economic forecast calls for stabilization by middle 2009, and after annualized declines of 7% and 3% for Q1 and Q2, the bank expects real GDP to inch up at a 1% rate over the second half of the year.

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!