UPDATE: V-shaped recovery in stocks as 103 USDJPY marks line in the sand...
BTFD failed and momentum has broken. Growth stocks and Biotech dreams are lying shattered in a pool of margin calls once again this morning. Nasdaq being dragged by another more-than-1% drop in Biotechs (now negative year-to-date) and nearing the 20% high-to-low drop of a bear market. Bonds are bid as JPY carry unwinds drag broad US equity markets lower... The USD is weaker (led by EUR strength) and precious metals are down modestly (gold at $1300)
These are indeed scary times for the corrupt kleptocrats of China.
Just as we should be re-assured by Shinzo Abe's declaration that the Olympics will be 'safe' in Japan (despite his incessant calls for recovery in the Japanese economy when it is actually collapsing under its own devalued currency import costs); the UN is out with a report that states it did not expect “significant changes” in future cancer rates that could be attributed to radiation exposure from the reactor meltdowns. The levels, according to their report, were much lower than Chernobyl and therefore the Fukushima nuclear disaster is unlikely to lead to a rise in people developing cancer. But... some children 'might' have received doses that could affect their risk of developing cancer later in life...
Market consensus is that deflation remains the greatest threat to the global economy. But that's ignoring signs of impending inflation, particularly in the US.
Outlook for the dollar in the week ahead.
Following the March Jobs Report, ConvergEx's Nick Colas got to thinking about the composition of employment growth rather than just the headline number. Is every new job created really the same when it comes to overall economic impact? Consider that the average household income in Maryland is $69,920, versus $39,592 in Mississippi. Or that Mining and Logging jobs pay, on average, $28.77/hour and Retail Trade positions average only $14.22/hour. To expand on this point, Colas came up with three 'Ideal' marginal hires, when considering which jobs bring the most "bang" for the wage/employment "buck". At this point in the cycle we should be focused on job quality as much as quantity.
The outperformance "hope" of so-called 'growth' stocks over the past 5 months has been rapidly eviscerated as they catch down to 'value'... it seems the self-sustaining escape-velocity dream is postponed for now...
According to stunning new numbers just released by the federal government, that we detailed yesterday, nine of the top ten most commonly held jobs in the United States pay an average wage of less than $35,000 a year. When you break that down, that means that most of these workers are making less than $3,000 a month before taxes. And once you consider how we are being taxed into oblivion, things become even more frightening. Can you pay a mortgage and support a family on just a couple grand a month? Of course not. In the old days, a single income would enable a family to live a very comfortable middle class lifestyle in most cases. But now those days are long gone.
Curious why March hourly wages fell, and why the weekly number continues to trend at a near-recession level, and certainly one that does not support a 2% inflation growth case? Here's why: in March the best paying industry groups - information, financial activities and manufacturing (which actually saw a drop of 1,000 jobs in the past month) - added a cumulative total of... 2,000 jobs among them. Where was the bulk of the job gains? At the worst paying sectors of course.
The most common pushback from any China bull, industrial commodity bull, US equity market bull, or in fact any risk market in general "bull" is "won't the authorities just pull the trigger? Won't they just stimulate?" As UBS Commodities group notes, the debate is most advanced for China and for industrial commodities, where the weakness in the economy, and the sharp commodity price falls of recent weeks, has consensus looking for a stimulus driven bounce. UBS does not think so - the authorities in China and the US have become increasingly focused on structural issues - which, simply put, means they are less willing to act than before. It appears last night's mini (railway-focused) stimulus supports the expectations of no "bazooka".
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 200k increase in non-farm payrolls for March - in line with consensus - and believe last month's 175k print supports the ongoing positive trend (in light of the weather effect). Key employment indicators looked mixed-to-better in March, and despite the continued cold temperatures, less extreme weather conditions overall should give an additional boost to job gains this month. Citi suggests the weather could have knocked 172k off payrolls overall from Dec to Jan and are more hopeful, expecting a 240k print. Their biggest fear, a greater than 275k print (which is the high bar that Joe Lavorgna has set) could see asset markets reacting badly (on the basis of quicker Fed tightening).
One has to wonder why we are dodging this truth about what we've become: a nation that turns a blind eye to skimmers, scammers and legal looting. As in the story of the Emperor's new clothes, the onlooker who declares the obvious - in this case, that the stock market is rigged - shatters the consensus lie.
What did Janet Yellen do? Judging by the talking-heads or your favorite business media channel (or your friendly local asset-gatherer), she promised the Fed would hold everything up for longer and recovery (thanks to escape velocity growth at any moment) will be here any quarter... So what did she do that spanked all the high-growth hopes...
The risk that creditors, savers and bondholders, rather than taxpayers will bear the brunt of rescuing a bank in trouble form part of the first credit ratings given to 18 of Europe's biggest banks yesterday by new ratings agency, Scope.
Being that markets are unrigged and all, at least according to every single proponent of HFT that is, futures have done their overnight levitation as they have every day for the past month driven by the one staple - the Yen carry trade - even if in recent days the broader market slump during the actual daytrading session mostly impacted biotechs yesterday. And since any news is good news, we don't expect today's main event, the ECB's rate announcement and Draghi press conference, both of which are expected to announce nothing new despite Europe's outright inflationary collapse which most recently dropped to 0.5%, the lowest since 2009.