Even if the events of 2015 and early 2016 turn out to be the end of it, it still means that full recovery in earnings and the real economy has been pushed several years farther into the future – a far more precarious state than was believed to ever be truly possible. To figure, then, that there is now much, much more than a trivial chance of still more disruption and contraction does not mix well with such durable overvaluation.
A funny thing happened when US slapped a major tariff on China's steel exports... prices exploded higher. But the almost 50% surge in steel prices since mid-December back to 15-month highs have left traders equally split on what happens next. Will record production levels exaggerate a global glut amid tumbling exports and rising tariffs, or will China's trillion-dollar surge in credit fuel yet more so-called "iron rooster" projects driving domestic demand even higher. For now, it appears the former is more likely as US Trade reps suggested further protectionism looms.
Intel Fires A Massive 12,000 Workers, 11% Of Its Entire Workforce, As It Misses Q1 Sales, Guides LowerSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2016 19:08 -0400
There were some rumors reported late last week that the world's biggest chip maker was about to fire a major portion of its workforce. Moments ago the company confirmed these rumors, when it reported that it was firing a whopping 11% of its entire workforce, laying off a massive 12,000 workers. Confused? Don't be: it's all part of the new normal recovery, and don't forget the spin: don't think of its as 12,000 highly paid engineers and tech workers fired, think of it as 12,000 brand spanking new waiters and bartenders.
"If somebody needs a bell ringing to figure out that the [market] frothy right now, then I’m in the business of selling hearing aids..."
The stock market and the economy are moving in two completely different directions right now. Even as stock prices soar, big corporations are defaulting on their debts at a level that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. In fact, this wave of debt defaults have become so dramatic that even mainstream media is reporting on it...
If asking traders where stocks and oil would be trading one day after a weekend in which the Doha OPEC meeting resulted in a spectacular failure, few if any would have said the S&P would be over 2,100, WTI would be back over $40 and the VIX would be about to drop to 12 and yet that is precisely where the the S&P500 is set to open today, hitting Goldman's year end target 8 months early, and oblivious of the latest batch of poor earnings news, this time from Intel and Netflix, both of which are sharply lower. We expect that after taking out any 2,100 stops, the S&P will then make a solid effort to take out all time highs, now just over 1% away.
"We’re in the terminal phase of the greatest debt bubble in all of human history... The crisis that happened last time around… it was just a warning signal of what would happen if we didn’t fix our problems... and of course we didn’t fix them. It’s not sustainable... There’s going to be a permanent, massive adjustment and a loss of faith in the current system..."
The simple answer is — and the courts have ruled — that they can and it’s legal. They claim that it is part of free speech and that the responsibility is on the public to be informed as to whether the information is true or not. Therein lies the problem. The American public has been lulled into watching the evening news and thinking they are being informed. They aren’t. They’re being manipulated.
Despite the remarkable recovery in crude oil prices today, traders were not buying the bounce-back in one crucial market. Bets on the future devaluation of the Saudi Riyal surged by the most in 3 weeks today. Having rallied back from the January lows - on the back of the worldwide liquidity illusion that floated all boats, the Doha disappointment sparked renewed interest in bets that The Kingdom would be forced to abandon its three-decade peg to the dollar.
For a huge period of time, Apple was an absolutely awful stock. It had its ups and downs, but the 1983 to 2003, a period of two entire decades, the stock went nowhere.
"Our “Japanification” theme argues for big, fat, volatile trading ranges being the norm. The rallies (Japan rallied +20% every year during the 1990s (Chart 8) and the fades are always driven by Policy (panic & complacency), Profits (troughs & peaks in PMI’s) & Positioning (fear & greed). As bulls begin to dominate, confidence in the macro improves & the Fed starts to talk-up prospect of rate hikes, we would use Q2 to add to volatility exposure." - BofA
Are interest rates low because of the action of central banks or because of unresolved debt deflation?
Following yesterday's OPEC "production freeze" meeting in Doha which ended in total failure, where in a seemingly last minute change of heart Saudi Arabia and specifically its deputy crown prince bin Salman revised the terms of the agreement demanding Iran participate in the freeze after all knowing well it won't, oil crashed and with it so did the strategy of jawboning for the past 2 months had been exposed for what it was: a desperate attempt to keep oil prices stable and "crush shorts" while global demand slowly picked up. And whether it is central banks, or chronic BTFDers, just 12 hours after oil opened for trading with a loud crash, the commodity has nearly wiped out all losses, and both brent and WTI were down barely 2%, leading to both European stocks and US equity futures virtually unchanged on the session.
Relentless deterioration meets stunning overcapacity.
"The trigger that's going to really send us into a higher gear is going to be the admission by the Fed that the economy is weak or the markets figure it out on their own. There's not a lot of stimulus left, all they've got is potentially negative rates and a huge round of quantitative easing, and this thing is going to blow up in the Fed's face."