recovery

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events..."

Global Recession And Other Visions For 2017

"...the Fed’s efforts to ‘normalize’ interest rates will be tabled.  The economy simply can’t afford higher rates.  This isn’t Trump’s fault, of course.  He’s been handed a badly damaged economy. Quite frankly, there’s really no way to fix it.  Decades of economic degradation are irreversible." 

Goldman's 10 Most Important Questions For 2017

Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about growth in 2017, for three reasons: first, despite the lack of spare capacity, US recession risk remains below the historical average; second, financial conditions should remain a growth tailwind - at least in the first half of 2017; and third, we expect a fiscal easing accumulating to 1% of GDP by 2018. However, uncertainty remains and here is what Jan Hatzius and his team believe are the ten most important questions for 2017.

Russia Warns Of "Proportional Response" To Obama's "Paranoia"

"The US sanctions against Russia are the signs of a real paranoia..and are futile and counter-productive... I can only reconfirm that this hysteria obviously, deals a blow on the foreign policy plans of the incoming administration of the president-elect...."

3 Things: Records Are Records For A Reason

First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is the point at which previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.  The charts below suggest that current levels should be a sign of caution rather than exuberance.

Can The Canadian Oil Industry Recover In 2017?

Even with the recovery in conventional oil and gas looking positive in 2017, the lack of major capital investment in oil sands that has become the norm in the past decade will be painful with no relief in sight.

US Selloff Spooks Thinly Traded Global Markets Sending Stocks, Yields, Dollar Lower

One day after the biggest drop in US stocks in two months, global stocks struggled as they tried to close out 2016 on a positive note. The dollar dropped the most in two weeks, sliding alongside bond yields, while oil retreated from its highest close in 17 months. European stocks slid from a 2016 peak on renewed concerns about Italian banks.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

2017: Where The Truth Lies

"When did it become de rigueur to lie to the people, let alone Congress and the UN? What have we become? When did that happen? I’m thinking there are still awfully few people who understand what’s happening in the world. What’s changing. And I don’t hold out much hope that they will until it hits them smack upside the backs of their heads."