• Tim Knight from...
    09/16/2014 - 21:37
    What if it had gone differently? What if, six years ago, in the throes of the financial crisis, the political leaders in D.C. had decided that enough was enough, and they were going to seize the...
  • williambanzai7
    09/16/2014 - 12:16
    I have tons of good stuff to post, but this morning I'm feeling something like this...

recovery

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 1





  • Putin Suggests Statehood for Southeast Ukraine as Sanctions Loom (BBG)
  • Ukraine accuses Russia of 'open aggression' as rebels advance (Reuters)
  • Ruble Hits New Record Low Against Dollar (WSJ)
  • Further Russia Sanctions Seen `Almost Inevitable' (BBG)
  • Europe holds nerve as Russia-Ukraine warnings ratchet up (Reuters)
  • China manufacturing slowdown ripples through region (Reuters)
  • Brazil enters recession in election blow to Rousseff (Reuters)
  • Disruptive Hong Kong protests loom after China rules out democracy (Reuters)
  • Coal Miners See Signs of Recovery as Prices Stabilize (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Double Whammy China PMI Misses Spark Sell-Side Demands For More Stimulus





A record-breaking surge in monthly credit creation and a trillion Yuan of QE-lite was enough to provide a glimmer of hope into the tumbling Chinese economy for one or maybe two months but with the real estate market continuing to free-fall, it should be no surprise that China's PMIs finally catch down to the erstwhile reality simmering under the surface in the ultimate centrally-planned economy. China's official government PMI dropped from 30-month highs, missed expectations and the early month flash print, to less exuberant 51.1 reading (with Steel industry new orders totally collapsing) with both medium- and small-companies printing contractionary sub-50 levels. Then (after Japan's PMI beat - of course it did as hard data crashes worst on record), HSBC China PMI also missed, printing a slightly expansionary 50.2 Showing, as BofA warns "the two PMIs both show that the current recovery is relatively weak and choppy..." and RBS adds "we expect the government to interpret such an outlook as challenging its growth target and to take more, and more significant, measures to support growth."

 
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Recovery? 3 "Uncomfortable Truth" Charts





Presented with little comment aside to suggest one scratch beneath the thinning veneer of record nominal stock prices every once in a while to take the temperature of the ugly reality that no one is talking about...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

If Consumers Are So Confident, Then Why Aren't They Spending?





The sheep have been told their confidence is at a 7 year high by the propaganda peddlers working at the behest of the oligarchy. The sheep are also told that 10 million jobs have been added since the GOTUS played his first round back in 2009. The sheep have been told the record highs in the stock market prove that all is well. If the .1% are doing fantastic, some of the wealth must be trickling down. The sheep are told that QE and ZIRP were really to save Main Street and not the bonuses of Wall Street (at record highs by the way). The sheep are told to fear ISIS, Iran, Assad, Putin, and China. The sheep are told U.S. energy independence is just around the corner and to ignore the fact that gas prices have tripled since in the last ten years. The sheep are told drones will keep them safe and the DHS militarizing the police is just for their safety and security. The sheep are told guns are dangerous in their hands, but not in the hands of the government. The sheep passively eat their iGadgets and barely bleat while being led to the slaughter house.

 
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The "Real" Retail Story: The Consumer Economy Remains At A Recessionary Level





Earlier this month, Retail Sales missed expectations for the 3rd month in a row, essentially flat on the month. As Doug Short rhetorically asks 'how much insight into the US economy does the nominal retail sales report offer?' With the release of the CPI data, we can judge this in 'real' terms (adjusted for inflation and against the backdrop of our growing population)... and the picture is anything but healthy.

 
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Who Is Short Treasurys? (Spoiler: Pretty Much Everyone)





Asset managers are long, while dealers, hedge funds, and other buy side investors are short. Using alternative positioning indicators, we assess where we can give credence to the CFTC data, and where there is more to the picture than the CFTC data reveals.... The clearest position concentration is short USTs (Figure 1). As the grey shaded squares indicate, the short has increased materially over the last 3 months. Equally importantly, there is an absence of corresponding longs in any client group to balance these shorts. Together that points to the prospect of even lower UST yields.

 
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Has Ukraine Shot Itself In The Foot With Gas Pipeline Deal?





Last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk pushed a bill through the Verkhovna Rada that would see his country’s gas transportation system sold off to a group of international investors. The provisions of the law would permit the transit of natural gas to be blocked. This decision may hurt the fragile industrial recovery in Germany and finish off Ukraine’s potential as a gas transit route to Europe.

 
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Frontrunning: August 29





  • Obama Cools Talk of Strikes Against Islamic State in Iraq or Syria (WSJ)
  • Separatists say will allow 'trapped' Ukrainian forces to withdraw (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Fighting Surges as Russian-Backed Forces Gain (BBG)
  • Missouri police sued for $40 million over actions in Ferguson protests (Reuters)
  • BTFDividend stocks? Tesco Slumps as Retailer Slashes Dividend 75% on Forecast (BBG)
  • In town halls, U.S. lawmakers hear voter anger over illegal migrants (Reuters)
  • Obamacare’s Latest Threat Nears Turning Point in Court (BBG)
  • Untangling the Mess of Austrian Bank Hypo (WSJ)
  • The billion-dollar fall of the house of Espirito Santo (Reuters)
  • Manhattan Condo Resale Prices Reach Record High (BBG)
  • California Drought Squeezes Wells: State Considers Regulating Groundwater Use for First Time (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

S&P Futures Surge Over 2000, At Record High, On Collapsing Japanese, European Economic Data, Ukraine Escalations





Following Wednesday's laughable tape painting close where an algo, supposedly that of Citadel under the usual instructions of the NY Fed, ramped futures just over 2,000 to preserve faith in central planning, yesterday everyone was expecting a comparable rigged move... and got it, only this time milliseconds after the close, when futures moved from solidly in the red, to a fresh record high in seconds on no news - although some speculate that Obama not announcing Syrian air strikes yesterday was somehow the bullish catalyst - and purely on another bout of algo buying whose only purpose was to preserve the overnight momentum. Sure enough, this morning we find that even as bond yields around the world continue to probe 2014 lows, and with the Ruble sinking to fresh record lows as the Ukraine situation has deteriorated to unprecedented lows, so US equity futures have once, driven by the now generic USDJPY spike just after the European open, again soared overnight, well above 2000 and are now at all time highs, driven likely by the ongoing deflationary collapse in Europe where August inflation printed 0.3%, the lowest since 2009 while the unemployment remained close to record high, while the Japanese economic abemination is now fully featured for every Keynesian professor to see, with the latest Japanese data basically continuing the pattern of sheer horror as we reported yesterday.

 
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Abegeddon: Household Spending Re-Collapses As Japanese Unemployment Jumps To 9-Month High





Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse... In a veritable deluge of data from Japan tonight, there is - simply put - no silver lining. First, Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.8% - its highest since Nov 2013 (despite the highest job-to-applicant ratio in 22 years). Then, household spending re-collapsed 5.9% for the 4th month in a row (showingh no sign of post-tax-hike-recovery). Industrial Production was up next and dramatically missed expectations with a mere 0.2% rebound after last month's plunge (-0.9% YoY - worst in 13 months), quickly followed by a 0.5% drop in Japanes retail trade MoM (missing hope for a 0.3% gain). That's good news, right? Means moar QQE, right? Wrong! Japanese CPI came hot at 3.4% YoY with energy costs and electronic goods 'hyperinflating' at 8.8% and 9.1% respectively. As Goldman's chief Japan economist warns, "the BOJ doesn’t have another bazooka," adding that "The window for reform may already have been half closed." We're gonna need another arrow, Abe!

 
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The Housing Echo-Bubble Is Popping





How do we know when an asset class is in a bubble? When everyone who stands to benefit from the continuation of the expansion declares it can't be a bubble.

 
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GDP 'Good News' Sparks Bond Buying & Stock Selling, Treasury Curve Crumbles Further





US GDP beat expectations 'proving' that government data shows the recovery meme is on track (as long as it doesn't snow ever again). The market's reaction... intriguing - stocks shrugged even as a USDJPY pump tried to get things going; gold and silver moved modestly higher; and Treasury yields... fell notably at the long end. 30Y is now trading with a 3.06% handle and 5s30s is back below 145bps...!

 
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Everyone's Fighting The Fed Now





Yesterday we noted the fact that Biotech stock investors has 'fought the Fed' and won (for now) in the last few months after Janet Yellen's "stretched valuations" warning. With bond yields continuing to collapse, despite Bullard's ongoing demand that the market 'sell sell sell', we thought a glimpse at just how dovish the market is compared to the 'hawkish' Fed would be useful...

 
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4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely!





David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "...based on the current trend in the LEI and the level of the diffusion index, history suggests that the next recession is at least four years away." While anything is certainly possible, it is highly unlikely that the current economic environment is supportive of another four years of a "struggle along" economy. Given the artificial supports during recent years, the extreme extension in assets prices, record levels of margin debt and the chase for yield in "junk credits," it is highly possible that the next recessionary decline could be much larger than the historical average.

 
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