We suggest ECB President Mario Draghi has his work cut out for him today. As the entirely political catalyst for Greece's crescendo-like bailout capitulation, he will - we hope - be questioned long and hard on his actions over the last 2 weeks (and going forward) with regard the increasingly 3rd world nation. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes, Draghi needs to help calm a still tense situation. The only way he can do this is with as much tranquility as he can muster, make sure everyone knows he is still prepared to do whatever it takes. It appears the markets (FX and equities for sure) are anticipating uber-dovishness and as we noted in the preview, he will likely crow of the lack of contagion from Greece, how well his tools have worked, and how Q€ is working... we wonder if the Greek reporters will be blocked from the press conference?
Mario Draghi should remain "largely on message" in Thursday's ECB presser, with the deal struck in Brussels last weekend having spared him the inconvenience of convening a tense discussion about imminent Grexit. Expect the ECB to reiterate the central bank's commitment to implement PSPP in full and the market will no doubt be looking for any color the ECB cares to add about the event risks surrounding the implementation of a third Greek program and the recent turmoil in Chinese equity markets.
Update: TSIPRAS TELLS LAWMAKERS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REMAIN PM WITHOUT THEIR SUPPORT
Today, the Greek parliament is being asked to legislate away its sovereignty in exchange for a bridge loan and a third bailout program that should allow the country to remain in the euro. Facing a rebellion from within Syriza, Tsipras will have to rely on opposition party support to secure approval for what is effectively a German coup.
While Janet Yellen's prepared remarks were her normal bland data-dependent-when-we-want-to-be, rate-hikes-maybe-sooner-or-later self, we suspect the Q&A of The Fed Chair's Humphey-Hawkins testimony will be worth the price of admission. Face to face with Jeb Hensarling - who dares to demand The Fed respond to Congressional probes - will be a highlight but it will be interesting to see if the politicians suck up to their debt-monetizer-in-chief or try to score politically populist points with elections not so very far away...
The real danger to the euro area probably doesn’t emanate from Greece, but from two of its heavyweights, namely France and Italy. If one thinks things properly through, Greece is really a side-show. The euro zone remains full of accidents waiting to happen and some of them have the potential to become truly gigantic accidents.
Yellen Statement To Congress: Rate Hike "Appropriate At Some Point This Year" If Economy Evolves As Expected - Full TextSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/15/2015 08:37 -0400
Key highlights from the first day of Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress: " If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target, thereby beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. Indeed, most participants in June projected that an increase in the federal funds target range would likely become appropriate before year-end. But let me emphasize again that these are projections based on the anticipated path of the economy, not statements of intent to raise rates at any particular time."
Just when the Chinese plunge protection team (and "arrest shortie" task force) seemed to be finally getting "malicious selling" under control, first we saw a crack yesterday when the composite broke the surge of the past three days as a result of yet another spike in margin debt funded purchases, but it was last night's reminder that "good news is bad news" that really confused the stock trading farmers and grandmas, which goalseeked Chinese economic "data" beat across the board, with Q2 GDP coming solidly above expectations at 7.0%, and retail sales and industrial production both beating, but in the process raising doubts that the PBOC will continue supporting stocks.
Varoufakis: Greek Deal Is "Coup", Turns Greece Into "Vassal" State, And Deals "Decisive Blow" To European ProjectSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/14/2015 20:33 -0400
Europeans, even those who give not a damn for Greece, ought to beware.The Euro Summit statement of yesterday morning has nothing to do with economics, nor with any concern for the type of reform agenda capable of lifting Greece out of its mire. It is purely and simply a manifestation of the politics of humiliation in action.
Moody's and Fitch are taking a hard look at student loan-backed ABS and they don't necessarily like what they see. Fortunately, Citi has some pointers on how the ratings agencies might go about avoiding downgrades.
One day after the Greek "pre-deal" was announced and the world breathed a sigh of relief, sending US stocks soaring and Greek halted stocks, well, tumbling (via ETFs and ADRs), things are oddly quiet and in fact quite red in Europe, with futures in the US modestly lower, following both China's first red close in several days (SHCOMP -1.2%), and a Europe which is hardly looking very euphoric at this moment: it is almost as if the algos finally got to read the fine print of the Greek deal after trading all day on just the headlines.
"There’s been a colossal misjudgment of future demand. That long boom made it especially difficult for people to expect anything otherwise. Many bought the big story about urbanization, instead of thinking how things could go bad."
"I think that if Greece were to leave the Euro things would get very complicated for them... and this would create the same very unhealthy situation as we have in Argentina. Why? If people start storing value in a foreign currency, in this case Greeks using Euros, this will create a huge lack of transparency and affect normal trade flows and transactions. And we know that the parallel economy in Greece is already quite large the way it is. So imagine an exponential version of that. It would be a very difficult period for Greece."
The new Greek deal is "absolutely impossible, totally non-viable and toxic …[they were] the kind of proposals you present to another side when you don’t want an agreement." Speaking with The New Statesman, former Greek FinMin Yanis Varoufakis blasts Wolfgang Schaeuble's position which will lead to "a humanitarian crisis" for Greece and warns, regarding this latest creditors' proposal, "if anything it will be worse [for the Greeks]." His conclusion is succinct, "we were set up...," Merkel and Schäuble’s control over the Eurogroup is absolute, and that the group itself is beyond the law.
As outlined exhaustively here over the past 24 hours, the new “deal" for Greece has implications far beyond the Aegean and may well mark the beginning of the end for the EMU experiment. But leaving the bigger picture implications aside for now, the two most important short-term considerations for Greece are: 1) establishing political stability, and 2) stabilizing the banks.
"Greece will continue to fight, and we will continue to fight, so that we can return to growth, regain our lost national sovereignty"