Just when the talking-heads thought it was safe to proclaim small business is back, the data turns around and smashes them in the face. The headline NFIB Small Business Optimism index slipped to its lowest since June (the 4th month below the 7-year-high peak in May). More problematic was the sub-indices which saw plans-to-hire drop to six-month lows and wage-related series stalling out, capex spending plans plunge to 2-year lows, along with current job openings.
JPM Results Plagued By Recurring "Non-Recurring" Legal Charges, Stagnant Trading Revenues, Record Low NIMSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2014 08:23 -0400
Another quarter down and JPM's earnings are more of the same. We don't recall if JPM's legal charges in the past few years are now $20, $30, $40 billion or more, but as of this morning they are X + $1 billion. In the company's ongoing mockery of the term "one-time, non-recurring", JPM added $1.062 billion in recurring, multiple-time pretax legal expenses, a $0.26 EPS impact to Pro Forma EPS, EPS which also declined courtesy of JPM's repurchase of $1.5 billion in shares in the quarter thus reducing the number of "S". So what were the bottom line numbers: EPS $1.36, a miss to estimate of $1.39;Revenue (non-GAAP revenue that is): $25.16 billion, better than the $24.43 billion; that said GAAP net revenue was $24.246 billion; Non-interest expense rose tom $15.8 billion, well above the $14.52 billion expected, and more than the $15.43 billion Q/Q
- No Happy Ending for Investors in Central Bank Fairy Tale (BBG)
- Ebola Response Strains Hospitals (WSJ)
- Obama, foreign military chiefs, to thrash out Islamic State plans (Reuters)
- Draghi’s ‘Whatever It Takes’ Plan on Trial at EU Court (BBG)
- Too-Big-to-Fail Banks Face Up to $870 Billion Capital Gap (BBG)
- Iran’s Message to World: You Need Us to Fight Islamists (BBG)
- Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide (Reuters)
- Ukraine Grannies Outprice Banks on Hryvnia Black Market (BBG)
- HK police use sledgehammers, chainsaws to clear protest barriers, open road (Reuters)
- Gazprom Quarterly Net Rises 13%, Misses Estimate on Ukraine Debt (BBG)
Futures Euphoria Deflated By Latest Batch Of Ugly European News: Germany Can't Exclude "Technical Recession"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2014 06:47 -0400
So far the overnight session has been a mirror image of Monday's, when futures languished at the lows only to ramp higher as soon as Europe started BTFD. Today, on the other hand, we had a rather amusing surge in the AUDJPY as several central banks were getting "liquidity rebates" from the CME to push the global carry-fueled risk complex higher, only to see their efforts crash and burn as Europe's key economic events hit. First, it was the Eurozone Industrial Production, which confirmed that the triple dip is well and here, when it printed -1.8%, below the expected -1.6%, and far below last month's 1.0%. This comes in the month when German IP plunged most since 2009, confirming that this time it's different, and it is Germany that is leading Europe's collapse into the Keynesian abyss not the periphery. And speaking of Germany, at the same time Europe's former growth dynamo released an October ZEW survey of -3.6%, the 10th consecutive decline and well below the 0.0% expected: first negative print since late 2012!
'Everyone' knows that the Japanese economy is weakening (apart from Abe and Kuroda obviously), 'everyone' knows that the European economy is tumbling towards another recession, 'most' know that China is really slowing (no matter what the magic of excel enables GDP to be)... and 'everyone' knows that the US economy is the cleanest dirty shirt, will decouple from the rest of the world, and thanks to endless extrapolated dreams, will lead the world to escape velocity. Except... recent macro data suggests otherwise...
We have recently witnessed many 'firsts' such as one of the largest storms in the Pacific, the most severe acute health risk in modern times, and a global financial system on the brink of collapse.
- Privately, Saudis tell oil market: get used to lower prices (Reuters)
- OPEC Members’ Rift Deepens Amid Falling Oil Prices (WSJ)
- Russia Spending $6 Billion Not Enough to Stop Ruble Rout on Oil (BBG)
- Deutsche clampdown on bad behaviour prompts exodus of traders (FT)
- Can't beat the spin: China trade data eases slowdown fears, more stimulus may still be needed (Reuters)
- China’s Exports Buoy Growth as IPhone Inflates Imports (BBG)
- Italy on Sale to Chinese Investors as Recession Bites (BBG)
- Hong Kong Protesters, Antiprotest Activists Clash (WSJ)
- Turkey Offers Military Bases to U.S.-Led Coalition (BBG) ... and the price is a small piece of post-Assad Syria
- Passenger With Flu-Like Symptoms Causes Ebola Scare At LAX (CBS)
- Boston patient deemed unlikely to have Ebola virus (Boston Globe)
With futures slamming the lows at their open yesterday evening, touching levels not seen since May, and with the EuroStoxx 50 officialy entering correction just hours ago, down 10% from the June highs, many were wondering if the NY Fed's Chicago Trading Desk, aka Overnight Ramp Capital LLC, would be put in damage control duty and send futures right back to unchanged (because with new Ebola patient alerts springing up everywhere from Boston to Los Angeles, the pandemic is clearly contained). The answer, with a whopping 20 point levitation on no volume, and futures which are pointing now well into the green (not to mention the Eurostoxx rebounding off the lows and now green too), is a resounding yes (thank the AUDJPY, which is over 100 pips off the overnight lows and back over 94).
At the moment, the Ebola virus is ravaging three countries - Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone - where it is doubling every few weeks, but singular cases and clusters of them are cropping up in dense population centers across the world. Ebola's mortality rate can be as high as 70%, but seems closer to 50% for the current major outbreak. This is significantly worse than the Bubonic plague, which killed off a third of Europe's population. Previous Ebola outbreaks occurred in rural, isolated locales, where they quickly burned themselves out by infecting everyone within a certain radius, then running out of new victims. But the current outbreak has spread to large population centers with highly mobile populations, and the chances of such a spontaneous end to this outbreak seem to be pretty much nil. The scenario in which Ebola engulfs the globe is not yet guaranteed, but neither can it be dismissed as some sort of apocalyptic fantasy: the chances of it happening are by no means zero.
It's sad to say with such finality, but a universal fact of existence is that most of the people you meet in this life are fundamentally and functionally ignorant. Entire nations have fallen throughout history because of this terrible weakness... By extension, such ignorance is not just an inherent disease but also an easily exploitable disease. The disease of ignorance leaves us vulnerable to many other plagues, including literal plagues like the Ebola virus. When we take the establishment at its word concerning the threat of Ebola outbreak, we make ourselves vulnerable. When people assume that the worst could never happen to them, history shows us that it inevitably does.
While the memory of a financial market participant can be measured in nanoseconds, it appears that the average American has also become goldfish-like as RealtyTrac reports a total of 797,865 home equity lines of credit were originated nationwide, up 20.6% from a year ago and the highest level since 2008. As Jim Quinn so eloquently notes, after a two year Wall-Street-engineered fraudulent boost in home prices in the exact markets that led the bubble in 2003 through 2007, the delusional dolts are now acting like the increase in home equity is real: As RealtyTrac's Blomquist exudes, "this recent rise in HELOC originations indicates that an increasing number of homeowners are gaining confidence in the strength of the housing recovery."
- It wasn't Obama this time: Pakistani teen, Indian activist win Nobel Peace Prize (Reuters)
- Surging VIX Shakes Bulls as S&P 500 Charts Go Haywire (BBG)
- Global shares hit six-month low as growth worries mount (Reuters)
- Police, protesters clash in St. Louis ahead of weekend of rallies (Reuters)
- We're Sitting on 10 Billion Barrels of Oil! OK, Two (BBG)
- Spain seeks answers as seven more enter Ebola isolation (Reuters)
- Iran will sell its oil to Asia in November at the biggest discount (BBG)
- Redefining honeypot: U.S. DEA 'most interested' in U.S. investors in Canadian marijuana firms (Reuters)
- UKIP Wins First Commons District With Conservative Defector (BBG)
- Fake Ebola Patients Help Hospitals Prepare for Next Case (BBG)
And just like that. everything is crashing. Whether it is Asia, Europe, or even US futures, an entire generation of traders are waking up to something few have seen in the past 6 years: a very rare sea of red only this time with the main difference that the perpetual backstop of all risk, the Fed and/or "Edward Quince", may not be there to halt the collapse.