Houston, You Have A Huge Problem: One-Sixth Of US Office Space Under Construction Is In This Texas CitySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2015 09:59 -0500
All Out War Pt 3: Contrary to Central Bank Rhetoric, the Danish Krone Peg's as Fragile As Glass, May Throw Banks Into Turmoil!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 02/11/2015 08:22 -0500
Exactly as I warned 3 wks ago, Nordic countries are facing pressure. Here's strong evidence of a krone break, havoc to ensue in global banks, how to monetize when skittish brokers pull access & leverage.
- Methodology change sees Indian economy grow faster than China's (Reuters)
- Can Greek Businesses Even Survive? (WSJ)
- Putin to travel to Minsk talks raising hopes of a deal over Ukraine (Euronews)
- Ukraine contact group representatives deny ceasefire deal in Minsk (Reuters)
- Moar buybacks! Hedge Fund-Backed Investor Puts Himself Up for G.M. Board (NYT)
- Ukraine peace summit overshadowed by some of war's worst fighting (Reuters)
- Time for non-non-GAAP excluding China: Tesla CEO threatens firings after dismal China sales - sources (Reuters)
- Jon Stewart leaving Comedy Central's 'The Daily Show' (Reuters)
It appears someone forgot to tell The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) how to 'seasonally-adjust' its data to meet the narrative. In Februrary's survey of consumer expectations, FRBNY reports a collapse in consumer spending growth expectations in January. Even more worrying for President Obama's "middle-class economic" strategy is that the biggest plunge is among the $50-100k income cohort. Not exactly the picture of the 'wreckovery' Americans are supposed to be buying right now. All those jobs, all that wealth created, all the low-gas-price-tax-cut, and spending expectations collapse...
Once again we found ourselves bewildered while watching financial discussions on television. All one needs to do to follow along is forget your rational objective analysis at the door, have another glass of the proverbial “Kool-Aid™, and chant with the
congregation panel “everything is just awesome!” Why? Because it’s in the “numbers!” When you listen to most of these debates by economists using today’s “numbers” one can’t help but think any release of data must be taken as holy writ. For our money, when it comes to this new theology of economics, we’d rather be with the heretics. Maybe we don’t understand how they can believe the numbers they recite. But we do no one thing above all else. We won’t partake in the Kool-Aid.
"According to the University of Michigan survey, consumers have not been this upbeat since January 2004, when the economy was booming. The natural outcome should be for consumers to splurge, hitting the malls and going out to restaurants. But much to our surprise, the data suggest otherwise." - BofA
The future of Europe now depends on something apparently impossible: Greece and Germany must strike a deal.
The recent rally in crude prices looks more like a head-fake than a sustainable turning point, suggests Citi's Ed Morse, noting that short-term market factors are more bearish, pointing to more price pressure for the next couple of months and beyond. While the shape of the oil price recovery is unlikely to be 'L'-shaped in their view (more likely 'U', 'V', or 'W'-shaped recovery), Citi warns the oil market should bottom sometime between the end of Q1 and beginning of Q2 at a significantly lower price level in the $40 range (perhaps as low as the $20 range for a while) - after which markets should start to balance, first with an end to inventory builds and later on with a period of sustained inventory draws.
Despite the fact that the "shadow of crisis has passed" and Friday's jobs data 'proves' the recovery is on track, NYPD has some advice for those who have benefited from the 'wreckovery'...
Three consecutive days of oil prices rising and suddenly all is well again. This is the extremely short sightedness that the markets possess. The bottom callers have come out in droves, screaming that prices will only move higher from here, but will they?
There is a possibility that oil prices may of hit a near term low, and will likely stabilize in the $40 to $45 per barrel range. However, the reasons for the recent rise in oil prices that market pundits have been expressing are simply not true.
Stunning Chart Of The Day: For The First Time Ever, Central Banks Will Monetize More Than 100% Of Global Sovereign DebtSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2015 10:38 -0500
For the first time ever, "developed" central banks are now monetizing more than 100% of global sovereign debt issuance!
Having fallen for 47 of the last 51 days, The Baltic Dry Index (tracking the cost of shipping dry bulk from iron ore to grains) has been collapsing in a well-documented manner by Zero Hedge (though not the mainstream media). With Cramer having told investors of its importance previously, it will be hard to ignore the fact that, as of this morning, the index of global shipping costs has never (ever) been lower at 554. We leave it to readers to decide what they think this means (but we already know what it means for shippers and ship-building companies).
"Economic hardship is another piece of the puzzle governing the extent to which violent extremism takes hold of societies. Europe, in part because of the unintended (but entirely predictable) effects of the euro currency union, is in its seventh year of economic stagnation. Unemployment and underemployment are high, especially among the region’s youth. This economic environment is a foul ground in which anger and racial, religious and ideological hatreds flourish."
Albert Edwards' On The Next Shoe To Drop: The Realization That Core Inflation In The US And Europe Are The SameSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2015 20:14 -0500
"The next shoe to drop will be the realisation that the US recovery is stalling and outright deflation is as big a threat there as it is in the eurozone. Indeed my former esteemed colleagues Marchel Alexandrovich and David Owen pointed out to me that if US core CPI is measured in a similar way to the eurozone (i.e. ex shelter), then US core CPI inflation is already pari passu with the eurozone ? despite the former having enjoyed a much stronger economy!"
While we are sure the spin from any and every talking head will be that Grexit is overall positive for the Eurozone (until they see Podemos in the lead in the Spanish polls and Italy's Beppe Grillo previous threasts to "leave the Euro and bring down this system of bankers, of scum"), the early pressure to sell Euros (and not in a 'great news we are devaluing our currency and exports will be awesome way' - more a Venezuela 'get my capital away from this hell-hole' way) has been v-shaped recovered as, without doubt every central bank from Switzerland to Swaziland will be buying Euros tonight to maintain the illusion but for how long... While 'they' tried to save EURUSD, US equity futures aren't buying it (giving up the late-Friday Ukraine-is-solved and Dow is gren YTD surge) - The Dow is down 65 points, S&P down 8 points, and Nasdaq down 14 points.