recovery

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ECB To Keep Greece On Hold Until Wednesday When Balyasny Sees Rioting Begin





According to Colin Lancaster, senior managing director with Balyasny "we now have another 48 hours of calm before things really start happening", and the punchline: "situation could then break down as banks stay closed, ATMs will run out of cash Tuesday or Wednesday, uncertainty grows and rioting possible."

 
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Tumbling Futures Rebound After Varoufakis Resignation; Most China Stocks Drop Despite Massive Intervention





More than even the unfolding "chaos theory" pandemonium in Greece, market watchers were even more focused on whether or not China and the PBOC will succeed in rescuing its market from what is now a crash that threatens social stability in the world's most populous nation. And, at the open it did. The problem is that as the trading session progressed, the initial 8% surge in stocks faded as every bout of buying was roundly sold into until every other index but the benchmark Shanghai Composite turned sharply red.

 
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Did They "Fix" The US Economy?





The story of the "U.S Economic Recovery", who oversaw it, and how they f##ked "fixed" everything...

 
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What It All Comes Down To On Sunday





"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'." "No" means a lot of pain now and recovery later. "Yes" means less pain now but no hope of recovery ever. Choose wisely...

 
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Barack Obama Tells Another Whopper - He Did Not Create 12.8 Million Jobs





America is better off when President Obama is out on the stump bloviating and boasting rather than in Washington actively doing harm. But the whoppers he just told the students at the University of Wisconsin are beyond the pale. Said our spinmeister-in-chief: "And the unemployment rate is now down to 5.3 percent. (Applause.) Keep in mind, when I came into office it was hovering around 10 percent. All told, we’ve now seen 64 straight months of private sector job growth, which is a new record — (applause) — new record — 12.8 million new jobs all told." That’s a pack of context-free factoids.

 
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Do Share Buybacks Create Value? (Spoiler Alert: No)





Stock buybacks have been in the news lately, as their growing size has lead to criticism, especially from politicians who believe they contribute to economic inequality. But the simplest critique of the practice of buybacks can be made on economic grounds, in terms of value created or destroyed.

 
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"There Are Obvious Signs Of Distress" In The Manufacturing Industry





In April, we noted the NACM's comments that "there are big, big problems" underlying the economy as a surge in unfavorable factors suggested credit conditions were tightening dramatically (only to see that data revised away suddenly). June's data has confirmed this weakness with credit rejections soaring to their highest since 2009 with the biggest spike in 9 years, with NACM CEO Kuehl exclaiming, "There are some obvious signs of distress in the manufacturing community, as the expected wave of consumer demand has yet to manifest... companies that have been awaiting it are getting in trouble with their creditors."

 
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Plunge In Export Prices Is Now Worse Than The Great Financial Crisis





Spot The Recovery... 

 
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Finally The Truth: "The Greek Debt Is So Big Everyone Understands It Won’t Be Repaid"





"... this [Greek] debt is so big that everyone understands that it won’t be repaid. Loans to Greece have just bought time so that those in power don’t have to take decisions. This is like a game: who can hold out longer by not  showing that this money has been lost? This burden has become bigger and there obviously is no possibility to repay.... debt writedown of Greek debt will come after bankruptcy of state."

 
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IMF Bolsters Greek "No" Vote, Says Country Needs Much Bigger Debt Haircut





According to a report prepared prior to capital controls and the banking sector meltdown, any deal that included creditor concessions on fiscal reforms would mean Greece's debt load would have to be written down.

 
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The "Smartest Money" Is Liquidating Stocks At A Record Pace: "Selling Everything That’s Not Bolted Down"





Buyout firms conducted 97 stock offerings in the second quarter, more than in any other three-month period. "It’s clear that we are currently in an environment of frothy valuations,” said Lise Buyer, founder of IPO advisory firm Class V Group. Her disturbing punchline: "The insiders - those with the most knowledge - are finding this a very good time to take some money off the table." In an echo of Leon Black, Frank Maturo, vice chairman of equity capital markets at UBS AG, said, “Private equity is selling everything that’s not bolted down."

 
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The Current Oil Price Slump Is Far From Over





The oil price collapse of 2014-2015 began one year ago this month (Figure 1).  The world crossed a boundary in which prices are not only lower now but will probably remain lower for some time. It represents a phase change like when water turns into ice: the composition is the same as before but the physical state and governing laws are different. The market must balance before things get better and prices improve. That can only happen if production falls and demand increases. That will take time. The most likely case is that oil prices will decrease in the second half of 2015 and that financial distress to all oil producers will increase. The hope and expectation that the worst is over will fade as the new reality of prolonged low oil prices is reluctantly accepted.

 
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