recovery

Moving Closer To The Precipice

Slowing money supply and credit growth and historically extremely high stock market valuations far more often than not turn out to be uneasy bedfellows. In fact, usually the latter will eventually fall out of bed. Circumspection remains advisable.

S&P Futs Near All Time High On Strong Euro Data; Oil Drops On Trump's SPR Sale Plans

S&P futures rose alongside European stocks as Asian shares posted modest declines. The euro set a new six-month high and European bourses rose as PMI data from Germany and France signaled that the ECB will have to tighten soon as Europe's recovery remains on track, with the German Ifo business confidence printing at the highest level on record, and hinting at a GDP print in the 5% range.

BofA Finally Asks "Is The Tech Bubble Happening Again?"

"US growth stocks just surpassed 2000 “bubble” highs vs global value stocks; data on valuation, flows, and the relationship between equities and bond yields are all good clues that a speculative overshoot has begun; there are nascent signs we are in the very early stages of an overshoot."

FX Week Ahead: Highlights Include FOMC, BOC And OPEC

Politics dominate yet again, as focus on Comey testimony set to determine Trump and USD fate.  Fed minutes and OPEC meeting on the same day with the BoC thrown in!  EUR on the front foot and leading the pack as growth and inflation stats heighten tapering expectations, greenback flagging.

Bill Blain: "My Prediction Is That Around October 12 Markets Will Get Horribly Interesting"

"There are just too many contradictory currents out there. The unsustainability of burgeoning consumer debt, unfeasibly tight credit spreads, the sandcastle foundations of student loans, autos, housing and the CLO market, China, Trump, politics.. worries about what follows Brazil in the EM market, and whatever... The risks of a massive consumer sentiment dump."

What's The Worst That Could Happen?

The last time the stock/bond ratio was this elevated, it didn’t work out well for investors as volatility spiked, equity prices plunged and the “sprint for safety” send bond prices surging.

Fed's Bullard Slams Recovery Narrative, Confirms Fed Top-Ticked Economy; Hints At Fed Policy Error

In a surprisingly candid discussion of the recent economic slowdown, St. Louis Fed president said growth is unlikely “to move meaningfully” this year from the current trend of about 2% and that inflation expectations “have surprised to the downside.” adding that financial market readings since the March decision have been opposite of expectations. "This may suggest that the FOMC’s contemplated policy rate path is overly aggressive relative to actual incoming data."