recovery

Tyler Durden's picture

The Blindingly Simple Reason Why The Fed Is About To Engage In Policy Error





"... if nominal growth is 3 percent and the debt GDP ratio is 300 percent, the implied equilibrium nominal rates is around 1 percent. This is because at 1% rates, 100% of GDP growth is necessary to service interest costs."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Don't Believe The Hope" - When Forward Guidance Becomes Forward Mis-Direction





As we approach the Fed meeting expect markets to get more volatile. While the odds favor a move, it isn’t a sure thing until it is actually done. We found out last week what happens when forward guidance turns out to be forward misdirection. All those traders who thought they had a sure thing, who assumed that Draghi wouldn’t dare disappoint the market, got whipped. Whipped good.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Extreme Gold Positioning Grows As Hedge Funds Add To Record Shorts





With an all time high of 293 ounces of paper per ounce of registered physical gold, it appears hedge funds continue to ignore systemic risk and surging physical demand, merely following the trend lower in paper gold prices by adding to already record short positions in gold last week. With the speculative world near-record long the USDollar and record short gold, how much longer can the status quo boat can remain upright with so many on the same side. After this week's shake-out of USD longs courtesy of Draghi, one wonders if the gold squeeze is about to begin?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Central Banks Continue To Rule Equity And Commodity Markets





Until pro-growth, low taxation and less regulation policy changes are enacted, we don’t foresee any changes to central bank policy nor the unsustainable market divergences and asset price distortions. Expect more media propaganda on how great the economy is while the reality is another story. Early signs are that retail sales this holiday season are poor. Nobody can predict when reality will set in and equity markets revert back to pre QE levels in 2008/09. The longer this charade continues, the lower equity markets will eventually go, and in the short-term so will commodities. Then the super cycle in commodities will begin anew. Much this will hinge on next fall’s election cycle.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why To Fred Hickey These Are The "Last Gasps Of A Dying Bull Market (And Economy)"





"Deteriorating market breadth and herding into an ever-narrower number of stocks is classic market top behavior. Currently, there are many other warning signs that are also being ignored. The merger mania, the stock buyback frenzy, the year-over-year declines in corporate sales and falling earnings for the entire S&P 500 index, the plunges this year in the high-yield and leveraged loan markets, the topping and rolling over of the massive (record) level of stock margin debt... and I could go on."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Rebound On Hope Today's "Most Important Ever" Jobs Number Will Not "Draghi" The Market





Optimism in US equity futures appears to have returned, and as of this moment US equity futures are higher by 9 points to 2060 as the attention shifts to what, according to BofA, is truly the most important ever. It is unclear just how the algos would take a second consecutive major disappointment in a row: should today's NFP print be well below the 200,000 consensus, December rate hike odd will tumble and the EUR will surge even more after declining modestly from overnight highs just below 1.10, leading to even more losses in European equities and spilling over to the US. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Citi Turns Bearish On Stocks On "Richer And Richer" Markets, Sees 65% Recession Probability; Janet Yellen Disagrees





"Given the surge back towards the all-time highs in the S&P 500, we think that the best might be over for US equities and that indices might range trade more in 2016. We have downgraded US equities to neutral. This takes our overall equity weighting down to neutral, in many respects an extension of what we’ve been doing for most of this year as richer and richer asset markets, against a global background of economic risks, have made us more cautious."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Draghi Holds Water Pistol Press Party - Live Feed





Update: PSPP extended to March 2017 "or beyond", regional debt added to QE-eligible asset pool

Having just let everyone down with a less-than-spectacular 10 bps depo rate cut, Mario Draghi will now try to appease a spoiled market by announcing an expansion and/or an extension of PSPP. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

European Stocks, US Futures Surge On Last Minute Hopes Of "Extraordinary Policy Easing" By Mario Draghi





Yesterday's market swoon which unwound all of Tuesday's gains on concerns about a hawkish Fed and fears about terrorism in the US, are now completely forgotten, and have been replaced with the latest daily round of pre-ECB euphoria, driven by hopes that Mario Draghi will announce even more dovish details to Europe's Q€ 2 than just a 10 bps rate cut and a boost to QE more than €10 billion, both of which have been already priced in.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Mexico Faces Its Biggest Corporate Default In Two Decades As Construction Giant Misses Bond Payment





"Do I think they’re going to pay within 30 days? No. The 30 days are not going to make any difference."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The End Of Keynesian Orthodoxy





The resistance to such an awakening is understandable if still lamentable. If recession is truly the looming assurance, as it increasingly appears, that would mean not just the end of the recovery but the end of “accommodation” as a given force. In other words, Janet Yellen and the OECD start backwards from their endpoint because of their unshakable faith in monetarism, a faith that actually defines how they think an economy does work (and how they produce the core assumptions in their models); should that path from here to there completely unravel, so, too, does their assumed power and philosophy.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Don't Show The "Data-Dependent" Fed This Chart... Ever





Spot the year that the "data-dependent" Fed will raise interest rates...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Look Out Below: The Real Economy Just Hit Stall Speed





Look out below, for even with bloated federal spending, the real economy has hit stall speed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Biggest Problem For Europe's Small Businesses: "Finding Customers"





"Finding customers" remained the dominant concern for euro area SMEs in the survey period, with 25% of euro area SMEs mentioning this as their main problem. "Access to finance” was considered the least important concern (unchanged at 11%)."

 
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