Reflexivity

Fasanara Capital Explains How The "Fake Market" Works In One Chart

"‘Fake Markets’ are defined as markets where the magnitude and duration of artificial flows from global Central Banks or passive investment vehicles have managed to overwhelm and narcotize data-dependency and macro factors. A stuporous state of durable, un-volatile over-valuation, arrested activity, unconsciousness produced by the influence of artificial money flows... The higher it goes, the higher it can go, as more swathes of private investors are pulled in. The more violently it can subsequently bust."

Financial Market Insurance Is Not Like Hurricane Insurance

"..the hurricane is not more or less likely to hit because more hurricane insurance has been written. In the financial markets this is not true. The more people write financial insurance, the more likely it is that a disaster will happen, because the people who know you have sold the insurance can make it happen. So you have to monitor what other people are doing.”

RBC Explains Today's Rush To BTFD

"the missile strikes change NONE of the calculus for me...Thus, the balance of risk remains in favor of upside for now until this muscle memory above (buy risk dips, sell vol) is changed... The near-to-medium-term ‘risk downside’ story to me remains largely about the rates move as ‘reflation’ has broken trend line..."

The Moment The Fed Discovered Reflexivity

"Asset prices moved within a fairly narrow range for much of the intermeeting period, al­though volatility increased somewhat in the last few days of the period as market participants focused on central bank communications in the United States and abroad."

Fed Minutes Expose Hawkish Fed Fearful Of "Losing Credibility", No Hike Was "Close Call"

With three dissenters and no good reason (based on their own data) to stay on hold in September, The Fed chickened out, but jawboned the hawkish tilt afterwards. With Nov odds at 19% and Dec at 66%, the USD and Treasury yields were falling dovishly into the Minutes, this is what the Fed said “Several participants expressed concern that continuing to delay an increase in the target range implied a further divergence from policy benchmarks based on the committee’s past behavior or risked eroding its credibility” especially because recent data supported the committee’s outlook, the minutes stated.

How The "Perverse Economic Effects Created By ETFs" Are Setting Up The Next Crash

1. In a world of manic factor crowding via the exponential growth of cheap passive index and smart beta products, get ready for the class-action lawsuits in a future-state. And:
2. this is BEYOND GOLD as an example of “tail wagging dog” / “echo chamber” / “feedback loop amplification” from the market structure shift experienced within the industry over the past 10+ years.