Regional Banks

European Bank Bloodbath Destroys Stress Test Credibility

If the goal of the EBA Stress Tests was to reassure investors and regain confidence that 'all is well' in Europe's increasingly fragile and systemically interconnected banking system, then it has utterly failed. The broadest European bank stock index is now down 7% from the post-stress-test spike highs, Italian banks are at record lows and being halted (despite Renzi's promises), Commerzbank is struggling with capital raise chatter, and Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are tumbling after being booted from the Stoxx 50.

Germany Just Blew Up Italy's Bank Bailout Plan

Germany opposes any attempt to shield private bank investors from losses if Italy pushes ahead with plans to recapitalize lenders. Merkel’s government says that European Union rules on handling struggling banks should apply in any rescue effort, including forcing losses on shareholders and some creditors before public money can be injected. The government in Berlin rejects the argument that the U.K. vote to leave the EU constitutes an “exceptional circumstance.”

The First Casualty Of Brexit: Italy Prepares €40 Billion Bank Bailout

Barely has the market had time to digest last week's Brexit vote by the UK, a vote which may never actually be implemented if the "sturm und drang" campaign unleashed by the EU and the ECB on UK capital markets succeeds in changing the mind of enough "Leavers" to the point that the entire referendum is called off and Boris Johnson never triggers the Article 50 clause, and already Europe's most financially troubled nation, Italy, is using Brexit as a pretext to unleash a €40 billion ($44 billion) bailout of its insolvent banks.

Brits Lead Revolt Against Age Of Inequality, BofAML Favors "Gold, Vol, & Cash Positions"

Brexit is the biggest electorate riposte yet to The Age Of Inequality created by policymakers to save (some) of the world, and as BofAML's Michael Hartnett warns, investors must anticipate a shift to an increasingly populist policy response. The backdrop of Quantitative Failure nonetheless means a renewed bull market in risk assets is impossible unless fiscal policy can quickly arrest the downside in GDP & EPS forecasts.

There Is An Alternative To Yellen's Keynesian Bubble - Stockman Rages "Abolish The Fed"

The approximate hour Janet Yellen spent wandering in circles and spewing double talk during her presser yesterday was time well spent. When the painful ordeal of her semi-coherent babbling was finally over, she had essentially proved that the Fed is attempting an impossible task. And better still, that the FOMC should be abolished. The alternative is real simple. It’s called price discovery on the free market; it’s the essence of capitalism.

Peter Boockvar Warns "If Central Bankers Get Their Way, The Global Bond Market Will Blow Up"

"My fear is that central banks are now taking this too far through negative interest rates in particular and that they’re going to literally destroy their own banking systems. If they’re actually successful in generating higher inflation, then they’re going to destroy their own bond markets... our government officials, and I will include the Federal Reserve in that, have failed the American people."

Every Time This Has Happened, A Recession Followed

As of today, we now have three consecutive quarters of tightening lending standards. In fact, based on the latest survey, net lending standards tightened even more than during Q4 as shown in the chart below, and are now the tightest on net since the financial crisis. Needless to say, if a recession and a default cycle has always followed two quarters of tighter lending conditions, three quarters does not make it better.

Global Stocks Rise, Europe Rebounds As Oil Halts Decline

In a quiet start to the week following last week's surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.

Crushed By The Record Oil Squeeze, This Is How Energy Bears Are Shorting Crude Now

The result of the recent mega short squeeze in oil, has been a significant revulsion to shorting oil directly or indirectly, either by way of the underlying commodity or energy stocks, many of which have soared in tandem. And yet the shorts remain, and continue to press their bets on the troubled energy sector. However, instead of directly shorting crude and various first-derivative oil and gas companies, short sellers - burned by the recent squeeze - have changed their strategy and shifted their sights to secondary exposure, namely those regional banks that do business with the industry.

Futures, Oil Dip On Stronger Dollar Ahead Of "Hawkish" Yellen Speech

With Europe back from Easter break, we are seeing a modest continuation of the dollar strength witnessed every day last week, which in turn is pressuring oil and the commodity complex, and leading to some selling in US equity futures (down 0.2% to 2024) ahead of today's main event which is Janet Yellen's speech as the Economic Club of New York at 12:20pm, an event which judging by risk assets so far is expected to be far more hawkish than dovish: after all the S&P 500 is north of 2,000 for now.