"Policy makers everywhere have somehow convinced themselves that if they engineer higher longer-dated yields, then inflation expectations will rise too,” he explained. “They’re basically saying you can invert causation.” And in today’s new reality, everything’s possible, so why not inverse causation too?
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.
"From a growth rate perspective, the speed of credit expansion is alarming. The current pace of credit growth in China is realistically in a range between 19% and 20%, well above the reported official TSF growth of 12.4% and new loan growth of 13.0% in September. Relative to GDP, China’s credit-to-GDP ratio currently in a range from 260% to 275% of GDP as of September 2016" - Barclays
On August 31, in what was dubbed a "historic event", the World Bank became the first issuer of bonds denominated in SDR and settled in yuan when it sold 500 million SDR units worth of bonds in China. Then, overnight, in yet another historic event, Standard Chartered Bank said it has obtained approval from the PBOC to be the first commercial issuer of bonds denominated in SDRs in China’s interbank bond market.
The Fed clings to status quo. Other central banks are vying to knock it down, or at least loosen its grip on them. But the Fed behaves as if it has no idea there are other powerful central banks that want to grab and harness its power. It carries on refusing to acknowledge that there may come a time, sooner rather than later, where its power is attacked. The ramifications of such an attack will impact the standing of the U.S. in the world. The Fed can carry on being oblivious, but Game of Thrones illustrates the struggles playing out right now.
What was most striking in the latest Triennial BIS survey, was the shrinkage in FX trading by hedge funds and proprietary trading firms which fell by more than 30% over the past three years. The shrinkage in the share of FX trading by these investors is likely the result of regulatory pressures and FX rigging investigations which caused significant retrenchment by FX prop desks.
On a firmly rising gold price the UK is one of the largest net importers of gold in 2016. The gold price went up 25 % from $1,061.5 dollars per troy ounce on January 1 to $1,325.8 on June 31. Over this period the UK net imported 583 tonnes and GLD inventory mushroomed by 308 tonnes.
When Bloomberg reported late last year that China founded a working group to explore the use of the supranational Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency, nobody took heed. Now in August of 2016, we are very close to the first SDR issuance of the private sector since the 1980s.
Turns out China's capital controls enacted back in December to curb capital outflows might be working... which we're sad to report is bad news for all the 20-something year old I-bankers and tech geniuses reading this post from the comfort of their $2mm, 800 square foot apartments in New York and San Fran.