Renminbi

Moody's Downgrades China's Credit Outlook From Stable To Negative - Full Text

It is likely just a coincidence that just a month after we reported that China's real debt/GDP was far greater than the 280% or so accepted conventionally, and was really up to 350% if not higher after the recent record loan issuance surge, moments ago Moody's officially downgraded its outlook of China's credit rating from stable to negative, citing three key risks: 1) The ongoing and prospective weakening of fiscal metrics, as reflected in rising government debt and in large and rising contingent liabilities on the government balance sheet; 2) A continuing fall in reserve buffers due to capital outflows, which highlight policy, currency and growth risks; 3) Uncertainty about the authorities' capacity to implement reforms - given the scale of reform challenges - to address imbalances in the economy.

Global Stocks, Oil Continue Streamrolling Shorts On Last Minute Hopes For G-20 Stimulus Announcement

With the conclusion of this weekend's G-20 unknown, and many still expecting a major stimulus, the squeeze will likely continue into the close of trading ahead of the  weekend when nobody will want to be caught short into what may end up being another global coordinated intervention to prop up markets. “With a lot of policy events coming there is a fair chance of more stimulus plans so the markets can squeeze higher,” said Benno Galliker, a trader at Luzerner Kantonalbank AG. "The big reversal shows that there is some expectation building up into those events."

The World Is Red

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

Frontrunning: February 16

  • Oil eases off highs after output freeze agreement (Reuters)
  • Saudis and Russia agree to oil output freeze, Iran still an obstacle (Reuters)
  • China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)
  • Obama starts work to pick Supreme Court justice amid political 'bluster' (Reuters)
  • The Never-Ending Story: Europe’s Banks Face a Frightening Future (BBG)
  • Apollo Global to buy security services company ADT for $7 billion (Reuters)

Too Many... Convenient Beliefs

People come to believe whatever they need to believe when they need to believe it. Recent studies of voting patterns confirm the obvious. Zombies vote for higher taxes. Cronies vote for lower taxes. All believe they are voting for matters of principle.

PBOC Strengthens Yuan Most In 3 Months As China Stocks Tumble After Holiday

With China returning from the Spring Golden Week holiday, it is catch-up time for the Yuan (notably higher against a weakening USD) and Chinese stocks (significantly lower - though not as much as some might have expected given China ETFs). The PBOC strengthened the Yuan Fix by the most since the first week of November, catching it up to the 15 handle strengthening in offshore Yuan since the pre-holiday lows.

The World's Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short, Explains Why

"I spend most of my time, while looking at current prices, thinking about and trying to live six months to one year in the future....  What I can see now is that US growth is slowing, and that the market is likely to price in reduced monetary tightening." ... but... " The future for me is now more uncertain than at any time I can remember"

Is The US Leading Saudi Arabia Down The Kuwaiti Invasion Road?

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are both pushed into a corner over the shifting power base in the Middle East. The paranoia and desperation, like Saddam in 1990, could very well cause both countries to commit to the very act of aggression which will lead to their ultimate demise and removal from a position of influence within the region. Are we on the verge of another war?

Goldman's Take: "Additional Hikes Remain FOMC Baseline"

"BOTTOM LINE: Chair Yellen’s prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee contained little new information on the monetary policy outlook, and were roughly in line with comments made by Vice Chair Fischer and New York Fed President Dudley over the past couple weeks. She continued to highlight the FOMC’s expectation for “gradual” increases in the federal funds rate."