Renminbi

The World's Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short, Explains Why

"I spend most of my time, while looking at current prices, thinking about and trying to live six months to one year in the future....  What I can see now is that US growth is slowing, and that the market is likely to price in reduced monetary tightening." ... but... " The future for me is now more uncertain than at any time I can remember"

Is The US Leading Saudi Arabia Down The Kuwaiti Invasion Road?

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are both pushed into a corner over the shifting power base in the Middle East. The paranoia and desperation, like Saddam in 1990, could very well cause both countries to commit to the very act of aggression which will lead to their ultimate demise and removal from a position of influence within the region. Are we on the verge of another war?

Goldman's Take: "Additional Hikes Remain FOMC Baseline"

"BOTTOM LINE: Chair Yellen’s prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee contained little new information on the monetary policy outlook, and were roughly in line with comments made by Vice Chair Fischer and New York Fed President Dudley over the past couple weeks. She continued to highlight the FOMC’s expectation for “gradual” increases in the federal funds rate."

The Chinese Economy Is Sinking, Not Transitioning

China’s stock market is a small, relative matter; the more troubling imbalances lie and remain elsewhere. This change in production profitability is concerning on three fronts: China’s industry persists at only getting worse even though it has already reverted to a state not seen in a decade or more; consumer appearances may seem generally optimistic despite all that but only because industrial activity has yet to fully make adjustments through resources and labor; and financial trends are likely already at the stage of self-reinforcement within and without.

Is China About To Drop A Devaluation Bomb?

In concert with denial and obfuscation, pride and hubris may be clouding the image the Chinese have of themselves and their economy. What they are trying very hard NOT to communicate is how much pain their Ponzi debt burden has put them in. It’s not even fully clear to what extent Xi himself is aware of this, but he knows at least enough to keep his mouth shut on the topic. It’s quite possible that some of his top aides dare not reveal the real tally to their boss for fear of their jobs and heads. Beijing might solve some of these problems by devaluing the yuan by 30%, or even 50%, but it would invite a large amount of other problems in the door if it did. Like a full-blown currency war. Still, it’s just a matter of time till Xi and Li either do it voluntarily or are forced to by ‘the market’.

China Warns Soros Against Starting A Currency War: "You Cannot Possibly Succeed, Ha, Ha"

Soros’s war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed — about this there can be no doubt. Reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences. And just as proved in the yuan exchange rate case, the Chinese government has sufficient resources and policy tools to keep the overall economic situation under control and cope with any external challenges.”

Chinese Rush To Buy Foreign Assets As Mammoth $1 Trillion In Capital Flees Country

When the RMB deval dust settled, some $1 trillion in capital fled China in 2015 as Chinese rushed to move money out of the country ahead of what many expect will be a much larger yuan depreciation. Estimating capital flight out of China isn't an exact science and different analysts look at different proxies to determine just how leaky the ship is, so to speak. For their part, Goldman has endeavored to break down the numbers on the way to shedding some light on where to look to assess the pace of the flows.