Reuters

(Con)fidence Game

The financial and economic world in 2016 is, more than anything, a confidence game (pun intended). The year started with confidence severely shaken, so gasoline (as one real economic variable) and hiding intervention (the further hint of desperation) are more likely to have lasting negative effects than effusive but unbacked mainstream praise for the nth year in a row.

Frontrunning: July 26

  • Priest killed in French church before police shoot dead hostage-takers (Reuters)
  • On raucous opening night, Democratic stars make a pitch for Clinton (Reuters)
  • Sanders Backs Clinton After Fractious Opening of Convention (BBG)
  • Some in Sanders' army seem determined to march on without him (Reuters)
  • Yen hits two-week high as Japanese stimulus expectations dialled back (Reuters)

Furious Sanders Supporters, Angry Media, Blistering Chaos Marks First Day Of Democratic Convention

Democrats were delighted to watch as last week's scandal-plagued Republican National Convention lurched from one fiasco to another until.... the Democratic National Convention appeared to crash and burn in a disoragnized launch among angry supporters, blistering temperatures, sheer chaos, and a fractured organization that has left Republicans stunned in amazement at a Democratic party seemingly torn in two.

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The Forex Monopoly

The Forex Market is a Monopoly controlled by a few leading banks.  But it's possible to play this FX Monopoly game for real dollars that you can spend in the real world.  Let's play!

Oil Set For Bigger Drop As Historic Gasoline Glut Forces Early Switch To Winter Blends

Refiners are shifting to yet another desperate attempt to delay the inevitable market equilibrium point by switching from summer to winter blend as demand for the former has disappointed. The problem is that by doing so early, stocks of winter blend will fill that much sooner, and absent some miraculous surge in demand in the winter months, the moment when the price of oil tumbles has merely been postponed for a few months while assuring that the drop - when it comes - will be much more acute.

We're Sorry! - DNC Apologizes To Bernie For "Inexcusable Remarks"

Facing an already rambunctious crowd - chanting 'Bernie' at every mention of Clinton - The DNC has been forced to issue a formal apology to Bernie Sanders (and presumably his supporters).... "the inexcusable remarks... do not reflect the value of the DNC or our steadfast commitment to neutrality during the nominating process."

Frontrunning: July 25

  • Democrats in disarray on eve of convention to nominate Clinton (Reuters); After Gloating, Democrats Face Unity Problem of Their Own (BBG)
  • Florida nightclub shooting leaves two dead, up to 16 wounded (Reuters)
  • Yellen Still Waiting for Overwhelming Evidence to Warrant Hike (BBG)
  • Oil Trades Near Two-Month Low as Drilling Increases Amid Surplus (BBG)
  • Fraud Investigation Ricochets Through Hedge Fund Known for Ties to Jewish Community (WSJ)

US Futures Unchanged As Europe Stocks Rise; Strong Dollar Pressures Oil

There has been little notable market moves overnight, with the record rally in the S&P500 set to continue and European stocks climbing as German IFO business confidence proved more resilient than economists predicted in the month after Britain voted to leave the European Union, falling less than expected from 108.7 to 108.3, above the 107.5 consensus, with expectations printing at 102.2 above the 101.2 expected. Bonds fell with gold as the dollar gained before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week.