Reuters

• Brussels on Edge as Lockdown Continues (WSJ)
• Stocks Pare Decline as Crude Oil Erases Drop on Saudi Comments (BBG)
• Italy’s Eni Plans to Pump Arctic Oil, After Others Abandon the Field (WSJ)
• Treasuries Decline as Economists Say GDP to Be Revised Higher (BBG)
• Why the Housing Rebound Hasn’t Lifted the U.S. Economy Much (WSJ)
• Argentina Fever Is Back for Investors as Kirchner Rival Triumphs (BBG)

As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.

It's that time of year again...

Spot rates for transporting containers from Asia to Northern Europe have crashed a stunning 70% in the last 3 weeks alone. This almost unprecedented divergence from seasonality has only occurred at this scale once before 2008! 

"Tokyo will consider dispatching its Self-Defense Forces to the South China Sea, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told U.S. President Barack Obama on Thursday, suggesting a possible role for Japan in patrolling those tense waters."

Liquidity in the junk (and all other markets) is evaporating, and according to Citi the spread between an illiquid and liquid junk bond portfolio just hit 100 bps, the most in the history of the series. Meanwhile according to Mohamed El-Erian "The market is comfortable that whenever we hit a hiccup, the Fed is going to come back in," he said. "It's very deeply embedded that central banks are our best friends forever."

The global economic order is shifting beneath the feet of Washington and Tokyo as Xi marches ahead with "One Belt, One Road" and prepares to extend the first loans from the China-led development bank that embarrassed the Obama administration earlier this year. 

What do you do when you're a government statistician and the economic data doesn't say what you want it to say? Why you "adjust" it of course.

Importantly, while the "bias" of the market is to the upside, primarily due to the psychological momentum that "stocks are the only game in town," the mounting risks are clearly evident. From economic to earnings-related weakness, the "bullish underpinnings" are slowly being chipped away.

As Puerto Rico stares down a $355 million bond payment due in less than two weeks, analysts warn that without federal intervention, the commonwealth could face growing social unrest and a prolonged depression.

"We've had 12 consecutive years of silver deficits" which "can begin to apply upward pressure to prices in subsequent periods" - Thomson Reuters

Less than a week since the Friday 13th Paris terror attack, hours ago the newswires lit up with news of another terrorist attack when gunmen shouting and screaming "Allahu Akbar" attacked the Radisson Blu, a luxury hotel full of foreigners, in Mali's capital Bamako, taking 170 people hostage. The identity of the Bamako gunmen, or the group to which they belong, is not known

It may be all about ISIS these days, but just because al-Qaeda has been relegated to terrorist also-ran status doesn't mean they're not still operating and indeed, AQAP is still considered the group's most active and powerful branch. New footage uploaded today depicts a massive explosion at a checkpoint near Shibam, Yemen (the "Manhattan of the desert") as al-Qaeda battles both the Iran-backed Houthis and government forces for control of the country.

European Union countries are preparing to crackdown on virtual currencies such as bitcoin, and anonymous payments made online and via pre-paid cards "in a bid to tackle terrorism financing after the Paris attacks, acording to a draft document."