Reuters

Frontrunning: March 10

  • Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
  • Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
  • Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
  • Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
  • Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)

All Eyes On Draghi: Markets Unchanged, Poised To Pounce Or Plunge

Global stocks and U.S. equity futures are fractionally higher (unchanged really) this morning (despite China's historic NPL debt-for-equity proposal) as traders await the main event of the day: the ECB's 1:45pm CET announcement, more importantly what Mario Draghi will announce during the 2:30pm CET press conference, and most importantly, whether he will disappoint as he did in December or finally unleash the bazooka that the market has been desperately demanding.

The Curious Case Of The 550 Million Missing Barrels Of Crude Oil

Crude oil production exceeded consumption by an average of 0.9 million barrels per day in 2014 and 2.0 million bpd in 2015. This means that as of this moment, about 550 million "missing barrels" are unaccounted for "apparently produced but not consumed and not visible in the inventory statistics."

There Is No Spending Growth

Since 2005, 44% of retailers, on average, beat their same store estimates each month. In February, only 14.3% did...

Where Have We Seen This Before: Hungary Central Bank Will Prop Up Economy By Boosting Stock Market

Today the Budapest stock exchange, now majority-owned by the central bank - just a few conflict of interest there - approved a new strategy on Wednesday to boost new listings and attract new investors, helping the government's efforts to buoy the economy. The bourse will aim for five share or corporate bond listings per year and boost stock market capitalisation to about 30 percent of gross domestic product from less than 20 percent today.

Peter Schiff: The Establishment Is Peddling Fiction, Ignoring Fact

Janet Yellen is in a very difficult spot. If she continues to ignore the growing signs of recession, she runs the risk of letting one develop prior to the election. This would favor the Republican challenger who would be disinclined to reappoint her as Fed Chairwoman, if elected. Allowing the Greenspan bubble to bust on Bush’s watch sealed John McCain’s fate, allowing Obama to ride a wave of voter outrage into the White House in 2008. Yellen does not want Trump to catch a similar wave in 2016. As a result, we expect the Fed to soften its rhetoric in the very near future.

Frontrunning: March 9

  • Angry White Males Propel Donald Trump—and Bernie Sanders (WSJ)
  • Trump Beats Back Attacks and Tightens Hold on Primary Race (BBG)
  • Fed Likely to Stand Pat on Rates, Keep Options Open for April or June (Hilsenrath)
  • Draghi Stimulus Fails in Stock Market as Swings Match 2008 (BBG)
  • Sabine Oil wins pipeline ruling in a blow to pipeline operators (Reuters)

Jeff Gundlach Explains Why "The Rally Is Ending" - Live Webcast

At 4:15pm ET, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach who continues to do no wrong in the market (even if it means buying stocks at his most doom and gloomish ahead of a record short squeeze), will hold his latest webcast titled "Connect the Dots" and in which he will explain why, as he told Reuters moments ago, "the rally in risk assets is nearing the end", which in turn explains why when the short covering frenzy had gripped the market last week, Gundlach was cashing out.

Japanese Government Bond Yields Collapse To Record Lows

Amid a strong 30 year auction overnight, long-dated Japanese Government Bond yields utterly collapsed. 30Y yields dropped 21bps - the biggest absolute drop in over 3 years and biggest percentage drop ever - to a record low 47bps. Since Kuroda unleashed NIRP, the entire JGB has been crushed and last night's rush for long duration debt (well at least there is some yield there?) has flattened the curve to record lows. For context, Japan's 30Y yield is now below US 2Y yield...