Reuters

Greece Admits It Will Not Make IMF Payment On Friday, No Deal Expected Wednesday

"Greece will not make a June 5 repayment to the International Monetary Fund if there is no prospect of an aid-for-reforms deal with its international creditors soon," Reuters reports. PM Alexis Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Wednesday evening, but no deal is expected today.

Frontrunning: June 3

  • Obama signs bill reforming surveillance program (Reuters)
  • Tsipras to meet Juncker in Brussels for talks on agreement (AFP)
  • Spot the irony: OECD cuts global growth forecast, says recovery taking hold (Reuters)
  • The Secret Money Behind Vladimir Putin's War Machine (BBG)
  • Companies' Borrowing Spree Darkens Stock Market Future (BBG)
  • How OPEC Hurt Big Oil (WSJ)
  • What's OPEC Going to Do With Iran's Million Barrels a Day? (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Europe Looks Healthiest for Years Despite Greece (BBG)
  • Bund yields inch higher, euro holds ahead of ECB (Reuters)

Frontrunning: June 2

  • Greece, creditors exchanging documents to reach deal - Commission (Reuters)
  • Greece’s Creditors Reach Consensus on Proposal to Athensa (WSJ)
  • Greece calls on lenders to accept 'realistic' plan sent on Monday (Reuters)
  • Hundreds missing, many elderly tourists, after ship capsizes on China's Yangtze (Reuters)
  • Oil up ahead of OPEC meeting as dollar slips (Reuters)
  • U.S. Met Secretly With Yemen Rebels (WSJ)
  • Euro zone back to inflation as May prices beat forecast (Reuters)
  • Patients Get Extreme to Obtain Hepatitis Drug That's 1% the Cost Outside U.S. (BBG)

Futures Slide Then Rebound On Endless "Unnamed Source" Greek Chatter, Dollar Slides; China Surges

Once again it's all about Greece, with the latest iteration of a "Greek deal is imminent" rumor making the rounds and, just like yesterday, sending futures in the green, just a little over an hour after the increasingly more illiquid E-mini future has slid 0.7%. The EUR, where the bulk of Virtu headline kneejerk reacting algos are to be found, has surged over 100 pips overnight on more hope and optimism.

Greece Abandons "Red Lines" As Troika Meets In Berlin To Craft "Deal"

We have long argued that the most likely endgame for Greece is that PM Tsipras caves to the troika, compromises on the government’s ‘red lines’ and risks a government reshuffle on the way to a third program, thus averting a euro exit and keeping Greece from descending into a drachma death spiral, even as the “solution” effectively strips the Greek people of their right to choose how they want to be governed — a tragically absurd outcome in what is the birthplace of democracy. It now appears that scenario is set to unfold.

Europe Shocked When Russia Does To It What Europe Did To Russia

The EU issued a press release this morning which could perhaps be summed up in 2 words - "not fair." Following the denial-of-entry by Russia of several EU politicians, Russia has released a list of 89 names who will face travel bans - of exactly the same type as EU and US enforced upon numerous Russian elites. Europe is displeased that Russia would dare do unto them as they have done unto others... "we deem this measure as totally arbitrary and unjustified," they exclaimed, adding, "we don’t have any further information on the legal basis or the criteria or the process of these decisions."

Futures Soar On Latest "Greece Fixed" Rumor; Forget To Drop On Rumor Denial

It wouldn't be the new normal without a "Greek deal imminent" rumor/headline and so after overnight China-based strength gave way to selling pressure, another twitter-based rumor of "chatter" of a Greek accord (which given yesterday's comments seems extremely unlikely anyway) sparked a malt-up in EURUSD and US Equity futures. However, as is always the case, Virtu's algos as usual forgot to sell when the official denial occurred just a few minutes later.

Frontrunning: June 1

  • Senate lets NSA spy program lapse, at least for now (Reuters)
  • Draghi Deflation Relief Means Little With Greek Threat Unsolved (BBG)
  • Tepid factory data add to Asian gloom (FT)
  • Citigroup Likely to Close Banamex USA (WSJ)
  • Frugality of High Earners in U.S. Shows Long Shadow of Recession (BBG)
  • Greece’s Tsipras Warns Bell May Toll for Europe (BBG)
  • Carnegie Mellon Reels After Uber Lures Away Researchers (WSJ)
  • Romário leads drive for Brazilian probe into Fifa (FT)
  • Faster than China? India's road, rail drive could lay doubts to rest (Reuters)

Sunday Deal Deadline Dies As Greece Prepares Desperate "Draft" Plan

Greece and its creditors are set to miss a self-imposed Sunday deal deadline as talks are still ongoing, an unnamed official tells Reuters. Meanwhile, Kathimerini says "government officials attending an emergency summit under Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Saturday prepared a draft agreement as Greek sources cited by the Athens-Macedonia News Agency indicated that negotiators in Brussels were close to a deal on value added tax, curbing early retirements and the gradual merging of pension funds." And so it continues.

Was Charlie Hebdo A "Convenient" Incident For Policymakers?

The most important takeaway from the tragic events in France is that we need to stay as vigilant as ever in defending our freedoms. As the aftermath of the Hebdo attack has shown, governments will misuse any opportunity they see to further restrict our freedom and arrogate more power to themselves. This is especially easy when people are faced with an understandably emotionally tense situation like 9/11 or other terrorist attacks. However, thanks to the Internet we are less prone to accept State propaganda and are able to get a more objective view of what is really happening in the world around us.