Reuters

As Hillary Polls Slump, Even Michael Moore Says "Trump Is Going To Win

As Hillary Clinton prepares for the Democratic National Convention next week, the latest poll shows she is now tied with Trump (losing a 7 point lead from before FBI Director's Comey's decision). While the DNC will likely provide a bounce (Trump at 7 week highs), if outspoken liberal filmmaker Michael Moore's comments are anything to go by, the best is behind Hillary... "I think Trump is going to win. I'm sorry,"  Moore said, "people are in denial of this, but the chance of winning is really, really good."

Frontrunning: July 21

  • Global stocks nurse nine-month highs before ECB meeting (Reuters)
  • Kuroda Says No Need and No Possibility for Helicopter Money (BBG)
  • As Republican Party tries to heal wounds, discord rules at convention (Reuters)
  • GOP Divided as Cruz Snubs Trump (WSJ)
  • Trump Chooses War With Cruz at Convention Aimed at Unification (BBG)

100 Jihadis Enter Syria From Turkey Each Week, French Intelligence Finds

"According to the Direction for Military Intelligence (DRM) in Paris, each week, about 100 foreigners continue to cross Turkey into Syria to join Islamic State," French newspaper Le Figaro reported Wednesday, according to Reuters.  The estimate is likely to raise scrutiny on Turkey's effectiveness as a partner in the fight against ISIS, in particular following a failed military coup attempt last week.

The Oddly "Inconsistent" Event That Has Turkey Wondering If The Entire Coup Was Staged

According to the official narrative, there was an attack on Saturday morning by helicopter-borne commandos against a resort hotel in Marmaris. Erdogan was meant to be staying there. But the attack took place nearly an hour after every news channel in Turkey beamed images of Mr Erdogan addressing the nation from the airport in Istanbul, some 750km away.

Prominent Journalist Killed In Ukraine When Car Bomb Explodes In Broad Daylight

In a stark reminder of how precarious the situation remains in Ukraine two years after a coup took place, which ushered in a new-pro Western government and which the western democracies had no objections against, earlier today a prominent journalist working for the online investigative website Ukrayinska Pravda was killed by a car bomb in central Kiev early on Wednesday morning, in what President Petro Poroshenko said was an attempt to destabilize Ukraine.

Unexpected Gasoline Inventory Build, Production Rise Spark Crude Chaos

Following last week's surprise Distillates build (and bounce in production) and API's overnight surprise Gasoline build, DOE data this morning was mixed confirming the 2.3mm draw in overall crude inventories (9th weekin a row) but surpringly large builds in both Cushing and Gasoline inventories (expectations were for draws). Oil prices were chaotic - running stops high and low - as algos noted crude production also rose (for the 2nd week in a row).

Massive Fire Breaks Out In 75 Floor Dubai Skyscraper

In what is the latest outbreak in Dubai's recent incendiary "epidemic", shortly before 3pm local time a fire broke out at a 75-floor residential tower in Dubai, the fifth blaze in a skyscraper in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates in recent years.

As Erdogan's Historic Purge Claims 50,000, Turkey Set To Unveil "Emergency Measures"

Erdogan's historic purge of dissidents and adversaries - many of which curiously are to be found in the country's educational system - continues, and according to the latest count a total of around 50,000 soldiers, police, judges, civil servants and teachers have been suspended or detained since the coup attempt. Also today, Turkey said it would announce emergency measures on Wednesday to try "to shore up stability and prevent damage to the economy

Frontrunning: July 20

  • Trump Goes on Offense as Republicans Try to Move Past Missteps (BBG)
  • Trump could seek new law to purge government of Obama appointees (Reuters)
  • Behind the scenes, Ryan touts his agenda in Cleveland, not Trump's (Reuters)
  • U.S. Set to Seize $1 Billion in Assets Tied to Malaysian Fund 1MDB (WSJ)
  • 21st Century Fox Negotiating Exit of Fox News Chief Roger Ailes (WSJ)

Who Really Won The Oil Price War?

It is probably a tie... Although the Saudis caused damage to U.S. shale, they also hit the global oil industry hard; and while they managed to preserve their market share, they paid a heavy price in terms of oil revenues.