El-Erian Says "The Market Believes Central Banks Are Our Best Friends Forever", Just Don't Show It "Figure 4"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/21/2015 16:38 -0500
Liquidity in the junk (and all other markets) is evaporating, and according to Citi the spread between an illiquid and liquid junk bond portfolio just hit 100 bps, the most in the history of the series. Meanwhile according to Mohamed El-Erian "The market is comfortable that whenever we hit a hiccup, the Fed is going to come back in," he said. "It's very deeply embedded that central banks are our best friends forever."
The global economic order is shifting beneath the feet of Washington and Tokyo as Xi marches ahead with "One Belt, One Road" and prepares to extend the first loans from the China-led development bank that embarrassed the Obama administration earlier this year.
What do you do when you're a government statistician and the economic data doesn't say what you want it to say? Why you "adjust" it of course.
Importantly, while the "bias" of the market is to the upside, primarily due to the psychological momentum that "stocks are the only game in town," the mounting risks are clearly evident. From economic to earnings-related weakness, the "bullish underpinnings" are slowly being chipped away.
As Puerto Rico stares down a $355 million bond payment due in less than two weeks, analysts warn that without federal intervention, the commonwealth could face growing social unrest and a prolonged depression.
"We've had 12 consecutive years of silver deficits" which "can begin to apply upward pressure to prices in subsequent periods" - Thomson Reuters
Less than a week since the Friday 13th Paris terror attack, hours ago the newswires lit up with news of another terrorist attack when gunmen shouting and screaming "Allahu Akbar" attacked the Radisson Blu, a luxury hotel full of foreigners, in Mali's capital Bamako, taking 170 people hostage. The identity of the Bamako gunmen, or the group to which they belong, is not known
It may be all about ISIS these days, but just because al-Qaeda has been relegated to terrorist also-ran status doesn't mean they're not still operating and indeed, AQAP is still considered the group's most active and powerful branch. New footage uploaded today depicts a massive explosion at a checkpoint near Shibam, Yemen (the "Manhattan of the desert") as al-Qaeda battles both the Iran-backed Houthis and government forces for control of the country.
European Union countries are preparing to crackdown on virtual currencies such as bitcoin, and anonymous payments made online and via pre-paid cards "in a bid to tackle terrorism financing after the Paris attacks, acording to a draft document."
- French, U.S. Troops Enter Mali Hotel as Gunmen Hold Hostages (BBG)
- Top suspect seen on CCTV in metro during Paris attacks (Reuters)
- Paris Attacks’ Alleged Ringleader, Now Dead, Had Slipped Into Europe Unchecked (WSJ)
- Global shares march on as alarm bells ring for metals (Reuters)
- European Stocks Rise With Asian Shares as Zinc, Ringgit Advance (BBG)
- World leaders arrive for summit amid heavy security (Reuters)
"If you just exclude all the bad stuff, earnings look quite good."
From both a political and economic perspective, the terrorists could hardly have chosen a more vulnerable moment to strike, with Europe wearied by years of crisis, paralysed by political indecision and shipwrecked by incompetent policy.
If The Economy Is Fine, Why Are So Many Hedge Funds, Energy Companies And Large Retailers Imploding?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 09:12 -0500
If the U.S. economy really is in “great shape”, then why do all of the numbers keep telling us that we are in a recession? In 2008, stocks didn’t crash until well after the U.S. economy as a whole started crashing, and the same thing is apparently happening this time around as well.
- Soothing Fed sounds send shares, emerging markets higher (Reuters)
- Belgian Police Conduct Raids in Connection With Paris Attacks (WSJ)
- The Paris Attacks Can’t Lead to a Closed Europe (BBG)
- Alleged Mastermind of Paris Attacks Was ‘Emir of War’ (WSJ)
- U.S. Eyes Russia-Iran Split in Bid to End Syria Conflict (WSJ)
- Despite tensions, Asia-Pacific nations close ranks against terrorism (Reuters)