Reuters

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Europe Brings Out The "Capital Controls" Bazooka





Here we go:

  • EU SOURCES HAVE DISCUSSED IMPOSING CAPITAL CONTROLS AS WORST CASE SCENARIO IF GREECE LEAVES EUROZONE - RTRS
  • IMPOSING BORDER CHECKS, LIMITING ATM WITHDRAWALS ALSO PART OF WORST-CASE SCENARIO PLANNING - EU SOURCES - RTRS
  • SUSPENSION OF SCHENGEN ALSO DISCUSSED

In other words, that money you thought you had... You don't really have it. We can only hope this message was not meant to restore confidence and prevent future bank runs. Because if Europe wanted a continental bank run, it may have just gotten one.

This is getting scary very fast.

 
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German Opposition Threatens To Scuttle ESM, And Spanish Bailout, Ratification





Gradually, the key open items from yesterday's Spanish bailout are getting some closure. First, we learned that Ireland, as speculated, will demand a comparable retroactive bailout renegotiation, an act which also puts the Greek elections a week from today in play. Then, we got definitive confirmation that the Spanish loan, coming at ~3% or half Spanish GGBs, is a priming loan, subordinating existing creditors. Finally, we learn that the ESM - the bailout mechanism at the heart of all current and future European bailout plans, and which still has not been ratified by Germany, is in danger of being scuttled by none other than the German opposition. The reason? According to a Reuters report, "A [Spiegel] report that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is not serious about implementing a European financial transaction tax threatens to undermine an initial deal struck last week with the opposition over the EU's planned fiscal pact... The Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens are insisting on a plan for a transaction tax and measures to boost growth."

 
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‘The End Is Not Near, It Is Here and Now’ – Gold Legend Jim Sinclair





Gold fell $28 or 1.73% yesterday in New York and closed at $1,591.60/oz.  Gold traded sideways prior to another 1% fall in Asia but has recovered somewhat in early European trading and has made gains in euros and Swiss francs particularly. 

 

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

 
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Frontrunning: June 8





  • Obama Seeking Ally on Europe Finds Merkel a Tough Sell (Bloomberg) - but he has an election to win
  • China rate cut sparks fears of grim May data (Reuters)
  • China faces stimulus dilemma  (FT)
  • Papademos warns of Grexit vortex (FT)
  • China’s Shipyards Fail to Win Orders as Greek Owners Shun Loans (Bloomberg)
  • Rajoy Holds Bank Talks With EU Leaders as Fitch Downgrades Spain (Bloomberg)
  • Capital Rule Is One Size Fits All (WSJ)... now the modest question of where to get the $3.9 trillion in capital
  • Merkel Pokes at Cameron With Backing for Two-Speed Europe (Bloomberg)
  • City safeguards set Britain at odds with EU (FT)
  • Bernanke says Fed to act if Europe crisis deepens (Reuters)
 
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Germany Responds To (Re)newed Spanish Request For Cash: Please Do, But No Backdoor Bailout





Just as we noted minutes earlier, following the Spanish (re)submission its (still rumored) bank bailout application, the ball was in Germany's court. And sure enough, Germany has just come out with the token response, which was the worst possible outcome for the insolvent country, which may force it pull the unofficial bailout request for the second time. From MarketNews: "The German government on Friday reaffirmed that the European bailout funds were ready to support Spain, if Madrid applies for aid and accepts the conditions tied to it. “The decision is up to Spain. If it makes it, then the European instruments for it are ready,” government spokesman Steffen Seibert said at a regular press conference here. “Then everything will run under the usual procedure: a state makes a request, it will be liable and it accepts the conditions tied to it.” Seibert declined to comment on rumours of a possible Eurogroup teleconference this weekend to consider an aid request from Spain that might be forthcoming." Translated: the framework is in place. As in, no new bailout instruments are being contemplated.

 
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Spain To Officially Request Bank Bailout For The First Time... Again





If it seems like it was just yesterday that Spain officially requested a bank bailout, it is because it was. Recall: "Spain Caves, Admits It Needs European Bailout" from June 5. What happened next is confusing, but it essentially appears that Spain retracted the course of action as it was unhappy with two things: i) the market's response to the announcement, and ii) Germany's response to the request for aid. The first, because as ZH first showed, did not soar as there would obviously not be enough money embedded in the current system to fund a full bailout of Spain, and the second, because Germany is not exactly delighted with having one more country on the dole, and has yet to clarify under just what conditions it will save Spain (in retrospect naive rumors that it has dropped all conditionality notwithstanding). Which brings us to this morning, when we are expected to forget that all of this already happened, and to be shocked that Spain is officially requesting a bailout for the first time./.. again... kinda, sorta... Reuters reports: "Spain is expected to request European aid for its ailing banks at the weekend to forestall worsening market turmoil, becoming the fourth and biggest country to seek assistance since the euro zone's debt crisis began, EU and German sources said. Four senior EU officials said finance ministers of the 17-nation single currency area would hold a conference call on Saturday to discuss a Spanish request for an aid package, although no figure had yet been set. The Eurogroup would issue a statement after the meeting, they said. "The announcement is expected for Saturday afternoon," one of the EU officials said." So now we have rumors of statements of conferences of bailouts. Lovely. At least our Belgian caterer long is doing great to quite great.

 
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Analysts' Kneejerk Response To Bernanke Speech: "No New Easing Hints"





Less than an hour ago Zero Hedge was happy to point out the glaringly obvious.

Shortly thereafter, Bernanke confirmed it. Now it is Wall Street's turn to join in.

 
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Fitch Warns On US AAA Rating Amid Lack Of Fiscal Credibilty





With Bernanke's speech dominated by the word 'Fiscal', is it any wonder that Fitch comes over-the-top with a warning, via Reuters and Bloomberg:

  • *FITCH SAYS WOULD CUT US AAA RATING IF THERE IS NO CREDIBLE FISCAL CONSOLIDATION PLAN IN 2013
  • *UK, FRANCE ,GERMANY, OTHER AAA NATIONS HAVE CREDIBLE PLANS:FITCH

Are the world's central bankers now checking back to the governments? Well we know how that will end. With the Fed's implicit tightening (as the balance sheet rolls down) and the fiscal cliff, it seems headwinds are mounting.

 
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Silver Surged 3% - ECB At 1%, Dovish Fed Comments and 'Helicopter Ben' Testimony





Central bank gold demand remains robust as central banks continue to diversify out of the euro and the dollar. Further central bank demand is confirmed in the news this morning that Kazakhstan plans to raise the share of gold in its international reserves from 12% to 15%. So announced central bank Deputy Chairman Bisengaly Tadzhiyakov to reporters today in the capital, Astana. “We’ve already signed contracts for 22 tons,” Tadzhiyakov said. Bloomberg report that immediate-delivery gold was little changed at $1.620.41 an ounce at 10:50 a.m. in Moscow, valuing 22 metric tons of gold at about $1.2 billion. “The bank is ready to buy when suppliers are ready to sell,” Tadzhiyakov said. Kazakhstan said yesterday it will cut its holdings in the euro by a sixth. It was reported in the Reuters Global Gold Forum that the central bank buys all the gold produced in Kazakhstan and owned 98.19T at the end of April, according to the IMF's most recent international finance statistics report. Meanwhile, supply issues remain and South African gold production continues to plummet. South African gold production fell 12.8% in April from a year earlier, Juan -Pierre Terblanche, a spokesman for Statistics South Africa, told Bloomberg.

 
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Frontrunning: June 7





  • China Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2008 (Bloomberg)
  • New Risk to Europe's Growth: Banks Cut Lending to Cities (WSJ)
  • Labor Faces New Challenge - Losses in Wisconsin, California Come as Ranks of Government Unions Decline (WSJ)
  • Yellen argues for more Fed easing amid Europe risk (Reuters)
  • Americans Cling to Jobs as U.S. Workforce Dynamism Fades (Bloomberg)
  • Japan’s LDP Agrees to Talks With Noda’s DPJ on Sales Tax (Bloomberg)
  • Korean Buying Spree Boosts Brent Price (FT)
  • China Delays Bank Capital Rule Tightening as Economy Slows (Bloomberg)
  • China CIC Chief Sees Rising Risk of Euro Breakup (WSJ)
 
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Spain Sells The Smallest Amount Of 10 Year Bonds Since 2004 At A Yield Over 6%





On the surface, the overnight Spanish bond auction, in which the country sold a tiny €2.1 billion of 2, 4 and 10 year bonds was a success, simply because it wasn't a failure. Anywhere below the surface and things get fishy. The Treasury sold €638 million of a 2-year bond, €825 million of a four-year bond and €611 million of a benchmark 10-year bond. And while the bid-to-cover ratios were higher than at recent auctions, with the 2012, 2014 and 2022 bonds covered 4.3, 2.6 and 3.3 times respectively, so were the yields: the 2014 bond was issued at a yield of 4.335 percent, the 2016 bond at 5.353 percent and the 2022 bond at 6.044 percent, a lower price than the 6.14 percent the same maturity bond trades at in the secondary market. In other words, Spain is back to using the same tricks it did back in the fall when bonds would magically price well over 10 bps inside of fair value. Just don't ask why.  More notably, as Bloomberg reminds us, this was the lowest amount allotted to a 10 year note since 2004. In other words Spain sold the bare minimum of the longer-bond just to keep up with appearances: an amount likely recycled by its broke banks, which scrambled to get the last remaining LTRO cash and to show just how strong the demand for the country's debt is. In fact as Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign said, "If it wasn't for its banks' continued support at auctions, Spain would be unable to sell its debt. Right now confidence in Spain is at an all-time low." Either way, the good news is that according to Spain it has now covered 58% of its borrowing needs for 2012. the bad news: 42% remains uncovered. Especially in the aftermath of an EU announcement that not only has it not received an aid request from Spain, but that there is no EU rescue plan for Spanish banks. Europe has now completely lost the script and is making up day by day.

 
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