Reuters
Why Shouldn't Practitioners Of Muppetology Get Swallowed In A Facebook IPO Class Action Suit?
Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 05/22/2012 08:55 -0500They call their clients muppets, they lose their clients massive amounts of money, they get preferential government treatment and get paid billions in bonuses at the same time they accept trillions in bailout aid. Exactly why not a class actiion FB suit again?
Facebook At All-Time Lows; -31% From Highs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2012 08:35 -0500
UPDATE: 6 minutes into the day-session and FB has a $30 handle and 17mm shares traded.
1.8mm shares have traded this morning as the long-selling continues as the stock-that-shall-not-be-named traded as low as $32.70 this morning (from its $45 highs on Friday)...
Swiss Parliament Examines ‘Gold Franc’ Currency Today
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2012 06:47 -0500A panel of the Swiss parliament is discussing the introduction of the parallel ‘Gold franc’ currency. Bloomberg has picked up on the news which was reported by Neue Luzerner Zeitung. The Swiss parliament panel will discuss a proposal aimed at introducing a new currency, or a so-called gold franc. Under the proposal, which will be debated in the lower house’s economic panel in Bern today, one coin in gold would be worth about 5 Swiss francs ($5.30), the Swiss newspaper reported. The Swiss franc would remain the official currency, the paper said. The proposal may lead to a wider debate about the Swiss franc and the role gold might again play to protect the Swiss franc from currency debasement. The initiative is part of the “Healthy Currency” campaign which is being promoted by the country’s biggest party – the conservative Swiss People’s Party (SVP).
Frontrunning: May 22
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2012 06:30 -0500- Hilsenrath: Fed Pondering Why Inflation and Deflation Threats Ebbed (WSJ)
- The Naivete: France to push for eurozone bonds (FT)
- The rebuke: Merkel Says She Won’t Shy From Clash With Hollande at EU Summit (Bloomberg)
- The Euro-love: Hollande's euro arguments "nonsense": Austria's Fekter (Reuters)
- Obama Campaign Does Damage Control After Dems Question Anti-Bain Strategy (ABC)
- Greece: four major banks recapitalized by Friday (L'Echo)... and if they aren't?
- China to fast-track infrastructure investments (Reuters)... because China needs more cement
- Jeeps Sell for $189,750 as China Demand Offsets Tariffs (Bloomberg)
- As Facebook’s Stock Struggles, Fingers Start Pointing (NYT)
- Facebook 11% Drop Means Morgan Stanley Gets Blame (Bloomberg)
Overnight Sentiment: Another European Summit, Another Japanese Rating Downgrade
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2012 06:07 -0500There was some hope that today's European summit would provide some more clarity for something else than just the local caterer's 2012 tax payment. It wont. Per Reuters: "Germany does not believe that jointly issued euro zone bonds offer a solution to the bloc's debt crisis and will not change its stance despite calls from France and other countries to consider such a step, a senior German official said on Tuesday. "That's a firm conviction which will not change in June," the official said at a German government briefing before an informal summit of EU leaders on Wednesday. A second summit will be held at the end of June. The official, requesting anonymity, also said he saw no need for leaders to discuss a loosening of deficit goals for struggling euro zone countries like Greece or Spain, nor to explore new ways for recapitalise vulnerable banks at Wednesday's meeting." In other words absolutely the same as in August 2011 when Europe came, saw, and did nothing. Yes, yes, deja vu. Bottom line: just as Citi predicted, until the bottom falls out of the market, nothing will change. They were right. As for the summit, just recycle the Einhorn chart from below. Elsewhere, the OECD slashed world growth forecasts and now officially sees Europe contracting, something everyone else has known for months. "In its twice-yearly economic outlook, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecast that global growth would ease to 3.4 percent this year from 3.6 percent in 2011, before accelerating to 4.2 percent in 2013, in line with its last estimates from late November... The OECD forecast that the 17-member euro zone economy would shrink 0.1 percent this year before posting growth of 0.9 percent in 2013, though regional powerhouse Germany would chalk up growth of 1.2 percent in 2012 and 2.0 percent in 2013." Concluding the overnight news was a meaningless auction of €2.5 billion in 3 and 6 month bills (recall, Bill issuance in LTRO Europe is completely meaningless) in which borrowing rates rose, and a very meaningful downgrade of Japan to A+ from AA, outlook negative, by Fitch which lowered Japan's long-term foreign currency rating to A plus from AA, the local currency rating to A plus from AA minus, and to the country ceiling rating to AA+ from AAA. Yes, Kyle Bass is right. Just a matter of time. Just like with subprime.
Things That Make You Go Hmmm - Such As The "Grexit"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2012 18:49 -0500“I don’t envisage, not even for one second, Greece leaving. This is nonsense, this is propaganda.”
– Jean-Claude Juncker, Chairman EuroGroup FinMin Committee
“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.’’
– Jean-Claude Juncker, Same guy
China Can Now Monetize US Debt Directly
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2012 14:28 -0500
The Treasury, apparently dissatisfied with the speed of indirect bank and/or Fed-inspired monetization of its exponentially rising debt-load at ever-cheaper costs of funds, decided in June 2011 to allow the Chinese, with their equally large bucket of USDs to bid directly for US Treasuries. As Reuters reports, China can now bypass Wall Street when buying U.S. government debt and go straight to the U.S. Treasury, in what is the Treasury's first-ever direct relationship with a foreign government. The documents, viewed by Reuters, indicate that the US Treasury has given the PBOC a direct computer link to its auction system - which was first used in the 2Y auction of June 2011. Perhaps this helps explain the massive spikes in direct bidders July and August 10Y auctions (around the US downgrade). Interestingly, Primary dealers are not allowed to charge customers money to bid on their behalf at Treasury auctions, so China isn't saving money by cutting out commission fees; instead, China is preserving the value of specific information about its bidding habits. By bidding directly, China prevents Wall Street banks from trying to exploit its huge presence in a given auction by driving up the price. This, after the 2009 discovery (and relaxing of other reporting requirements to cover this) that China was using special deals to hide its bond purchases, seems like more pandering to the large-holder-of-Treasuries as "direct bidder status may be controversial because some government officials are concerned that China has gained too much leverage".
Chinese Buyers Defaulting On Commodity Shipments As Prices Plunge
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2012 09:16 -0500One can come up with massively complicated explanations for why the Chinese commodity bubble is popping including inventory of various colors, repos, etc, but when all is said and done, the explanation is quite simple, and is reminiscent of what happened in the US with housing back in 2007: everyone was convinced prices would only go up, and underlying assets was pledged as debt collateral at > 100 LTV... and then everything blew up. Precisely the same thing is happening in China right now, where buyers of commodities thought prices could only go up, up, up and instead got a nasty surprise: prices went down. Big. As a result, many are not even waiting for their orders to come in, but are defaulting on orders with shipments en route.
News That Matters
Submitted by thetrader on 05/21/2012 07:56 -0500- Apple
- Bain
- Barack Obama
- Bond
- Capital Markets
- China
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- Consumer Prices
- Copper
- CPI
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- default
- Double Dip
- European Central Bank
- Eurozone
- Germany
- Glencore
- Global Economy
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Greece
- Gross Domestic Product
- Group of Eight
- Institutional Investors
- International Monetary Fund
- Iran
- KIM
- Lehman
- Lehman Brothers
- Meltdown
- Monetary Policy
- NASDAQ
- NG
- Nikkei
- Private Equity
- Recession
- recovery
- Reuters
- Sovereign Risk
- Sovereign Risk
- Wen Jiabao
- Yen
All you need to read.
Why Has Gold Fallen In Price And What Is The Outlook?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2012 07:02 -0500Gold Has Fallen Due To:
- Gold’s recent weakness is in large part due to a period of recent dollar strength. While gold in dollar terms has fallen by 25% ($1,920 to $1,540), gold in euro terms is only down by 14% (from €1,374/oz to €1,210/oz).
- Oil weakness – since the end of February, oil has fallen from $111 a barrel to below $95 a barrel (NYMEX) today. Gold and oil are often correlated and many buy gold to hedge inflation that comes from higher oil prices.
- Gold’s weakness may also have been due to wholesale liquidation in all risk markets due another bout of "risk off" which has seen global equities and commodities all come under pressure.
- Physical demand from retail investors in the western world has slowed down as did demand from India in recent weeks due to the increase in taxes on bullion (since removed).
- Much of the selling has been technical in nature – whereby more speculative elements on the COMEX who trade gold on a proprietary basis have been selling gold due to the recent price weakness and the short term trend clearly being down. This has led to speculative longs now having their smallest positions since December 2008.
Frontrunning: May 21
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2012 06:46 -0500- Is Insider Trading Part of the Fabric on Wall Street? (NYT) ... uhm, next question
- Nasdaq Says Glitches Affected Millions of Shares; IPO System to Be Redesigned (WSJ)... it's all the robot's fault... And the weather... And Bush
- Special Report: The algorithmic arms race (Reuters)
- Barclays to Sell Entire BlackRock Stake (WSJ) ... but they don't need the money... and it's not a market top.
- BoE's Posen: some European banks need more capital (Reuters)... some?
- Limbo on Bankia Undermines Confidence in Spain's Handling of Crisis (WSJ)
- JPMorgan CIO Risk Chief Said to Have Trading-Loss History (Bloomberg)... a guy called Goldman, blowing up JPM... the irony
- Pentagon's tone softens on Chinese military growth (China Daily)
- EU summit to raise pressure on Merkel (FT)
- Romney Super PAC raises less, still tops Democrats (Reuters)
- JPMorgan’s Home-Loan Debt in Europe Increases Anxiety: Mortgages (Bloomberg)
Germans Just Say No To Greek Tourism, As Holiday Bookings Plunge By 30%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2012 05:46 -0500
The last time we looked at the Greek tourism industry or what's left of it, ironically so very reliant on German tourists, we observed that receipts from this very critical to Greek tax receipts industry would likely drop to under €10 billion - a big hit to government revenues just when they are most needed. Needless to say, ongoing political chaos, a rise in anti-German sentiment, and a resurgent neo-nazi political power are not helping things. Sure enough Ekathimerini reports that German bookings continue to be in free fall: "German bookings for holidays in Greece have slumped by almost a third so far this year, a German Sunday paper quoted a Thomas Cook executive as saying. "By the beginning of the Summer season, booking numbers for holiday in Greece in the German travel industry have been 30 percent below the year-earlier figures," Euro am Sonntag cited the head of tourism at Thomas Cook's German unit, Michael Tenzer as saying in an excerpt of an article made available to Reuters on Saturday."
European Crisis: Your 1 Minute Update
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/20/2012 21:12 -0500This is where we stand right about now.
FaceBook: The Complete Forensic Post-Mortem
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2012 10:40 -0500
While much has already been written on the topic of peak valuation, social bubbles popping, and the ethical social utility of yesterday's historically overhyped IPO, nobody has done an analysis of the actual stock trading dynamics as in-depth as the following complete forensic post-mortem by Nanex. Because more than anything, those tense 30 minutes between the scheduled open and the actual one (which just happened to coincide with the European close), showed just how reliant any form of public capital raising is on technology and electronic trading. And to think there was a time when an IPO simply allowed a company to raise cash: sadly it has devolved to the point where a public offering is a policy statement in support of a broken capital market, which however is fully in the hands of SkyNet, as yesterday's chain of events, so very humiliating for the Nasdaq, showed. From a delayed opening, to 2 hour trade confirmation delays, virtually everyone was in the dark about what was really happening behind the scenes! As the analysis below shows, what happened was at times sheer chaos, where everything was hanging by a thread, because if FB had gotten the BATS treatment, it was lights out for the stock market. Well, the D-Day was avoided for now, but at what cost? And how much over the greenshoe FaceBook stock overallotment did MS have to buy to prevent it from tumbling below $30 because as Reuters reminds us, "had Morgan Stanley bought all of the shares traded around $38 in the final 20 minutes of the day, it would have spent nearly $2 billion." What about the first defense of $38? In other words: in order to make some $67 million for its Investment Banking unit, was MS forced to eat a several hundred million loss in its sales and trading division just to avoid looking like the world's worst underwriter ever? We won't know for a while, but in the meantime, here is a visual summary of the key events during yesterday's far less than historic IPO.
Friday Night Tape Bomb: Spain Hikes Budget Deficit From 8.5% to 8.9%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2012 17:12 -0500Just when we though that nobody would take advantage of the cover provided by the epic flame out of the FaceBomb IPO and the ongoing market crash, here comes Spain. Because there is nothing quite like a little Friday night action following a market drubbing and an "IPO for the people" shock in which to sneak the news that, oops, sorry, we were lying about all that austerity. Because while it came as a surprise to the market back in December when Spain announced it would post a 2011 budget deficit of 8.5% instead of the previously promised 6%, the market will hardly be impressed that Spain actually overspent by another €4.2 billion, to a brand new total of €95.5 billion of 8.9% of GDP. So Monday now has two things to look forward to: the Spanish bond margin hike on one hand courtesy of LCH.Clearnet earlier, and the fact that despite spending even more than expected, GDP growth has disappointed and the country is now officially in a double dip. Hardly what the country with the record wide CDS needs right now.





