As we move toward the second half of 2015, signs of financial turmoil are appearing all over the globe. Slowly but surely, we are starting to see the smart money head for the exits. As one Swedish fund manager put it recently, everyone wants “to avoid being caught on the wrong side of markets once the herd realizes stocks are over-valued“.
A Greek exit from the euro would change everything. The greatest change being simply doubt and fear regarding the outlook for other vulnerable EU nations, EU banks and the EU banking and financial system. We discuss short and long term considerations, best and case outcomes, and wealth preservation strategies.
We decided to do a little research to find out the size of different investable asset classes globally, to try to get some color on the money flows in this extraordinary period. The data is from various dates from 2013 to 2014, but the differences don’t matter much.
"I ... welcome the government's continued efforts to reach a collaborative agreement with all creditors," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a statement. "This is important since this means that the Fund will be able to continue to support Ukraine through its Lending-into-Arrears Policy even in the event that a negotiated agreement with creditors in line with the program cannot be reached in a timely manner."
Yesterday evening, after what had been a dramatic surge in the Greek bank run which has resulted in over €3 billion in cash withdrawn through Thursday night, the Greek central bank requested an emergency cash dispensation from the ECB under the country's Emergency Liquidity Assistance program, just one day after the ECB granted the latest €1.1 billion expansion in the ELA. Rarlier today, in an unscheduled session, the ECB did as requested, however it granted Greece far less than the amount it sought, and according to MarketNews reports, the ECB gave Greece just €1.8 billion in addition funds.
While the ECB is deciding the fate of Greece whether or not it will hike Greek ELA yet again in another emergency meeting (according to preliminary Reuters reports the answer is yes), Greek PM Tsipras is speaking live at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, just meters away from the "isolated" Putin. Live webcast after the jump.
- Greek PM optimistic on debt deal as banks bleed (Reuters)
- Greek central bank chief says banking system stable (Kathimerini)
- ECB Said to Confer on Emergency Greek Aid Amid Cash Flight (BBG)
- More tax "avoidance": Citigroup to shift European retail banking HQ to Dublin (Reuters)
- Florist's tip led police to Charleston shooting suspect (USAToday)
- Asian shares edge higher on Fed caution, China sell-off intensifies (Reuters)
- Toyota in damage control mode after American exec arrested (Reuters)
- Venezuela Oil Loans Go Awry for China (WSJ)
European shares remain higher, close to intraday highs, with the autos and travel & leisure sectors outperforming and basic resources, utilities underperforming. Meeting of finance officials to reach a deal over Greek aid ended in frustration, forcing leaders to call for an emergency summit for Monday. ECB plans to hold an emergency session of its Governing Council on Friday to discuss a deterioration in liquidity at Greek banks, three people familiar said. German airwave auction raises $5.7b to top 2010 sale. Bank of Japan leaves monetary policy unchanged as forecast. Shanghai Composite Index capped its worst weekly decline in seven years.
For the 2nd time in a month, China's Shanghai Composite entered a correction, plunging 10% from local highs as headlines of delayed IPOs and large-scale steel 'dumping' at a loss combined with global monetary policy fireworks and European event risks. The rest of the more highly sensitive and manic Chinese equity markets are also plunging with CHINEXT and CSI-300 down over 7% in the last month (and 17% from the highs in the case of the former). Chinese stocks have gone nowhere in a month...and are now in fact notably lower in June.
Just minutes after Greek FinMin Varoufakis warned people were trying to "incite capital flight" from Greece and Dijsselbloem stated that "capital outflows from Greece are worrying," Reuters is reporting that The ECB dropped the bank run hammer:
ECB TOLD EURO ZONE FINANCE MINISTERS IT WAS NOT SURE IF GREEK BANKS WOULD BE ABLE TO OPEN ON MONDAY- OFFICIALS
Friday sees Russia-Greece meetings and Euro area leaders are supposedly meeting on Monday evening due to the seriousness of the situation so it appears the endgame is looming large one way or another.
"The time it takes for the global regulatory community and central banking world to find a solution this time may be longer than the time where one episode of big illiquidity happens. Then the question is what to do. In my view the only thing that can be done at that time is that central banks should become again market makers of last resort."
The Troika - whose intention from the very beginning was to cripple Greek banks so badly and terminally that Tsipras and Varoufakis are forced to accept any terms hoisted on them as we predicted in January - has succeeded. The only question is how long until the Syriza government admits defeat.
Captured Church Massacre Gunman: "You Rape Our Women And You’re Taking Over Our Country" - Live WebcastSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/18/2015 12:25 -0400
Update: Dylann Roof, the suspect identified as the Charleston church shooter has been caught by authorities in Shelby, North Carolina
The FBI has identified the suspect in the shooting that killed 9 at a historic black church in Charleston, South Carolina on Wednesday evening. One eyewitness has offered a chilling first-hand account.
We want to highlight today's absolute failure at investigative reporting, and the worst example of journalistic capture by the Federal Reserve that we have ever seen because at stake is the criminality, competence and corruption of that most important of organizations in modern society, the US Federal Reserve.