And it all started off so promisingly, when after the biggest selloff in US stocks in two months, the BOJ and its preferred banks once again sold 6J (i.e., bought USDJPY) in the morning Japan session (while collecting CME liquidity rebates of course), sending the pair from below 108 to half the way to 109, and naturally taking global futures higher while pushing yields lower when as ITC says a "large TY seller knocked USTs to lows during the session" - hmmm, wonder who the large seller was. And then... the "rebound euphoria" fizzled a la Sodastream, sending the Nikkei sliding 1.2%, and US equity futures back to unchanged with the bond surge returning and sending German Bunds to new all time highs once again, while the Dax briefly broke below under 9000 before stabilizing at the key support level. It is unclear what caused the failure in central bank euphoria, although some suggest that the latest bevy of disappointing economic news wasn't quite bad enough.
Just hours after the World Health Organization warned "It is quite unavoidable, that [Ebola] incidents will happen in the future because of the extensive travel both from Europe to the affected countries and the other way around," CDC Director Tom Frieden announced that:
U.S. TO ANNOUNCE FURTHER TRAVEL MEASURES VS EBOLA IN DAYS: CDC
This merely confirms all suspicions and our earlier note that 'air traffic is the driver' of global contagion.
Despite being described by Spain's public health director as "a national jewel," the head of Spain's Nursing Council warns "something went wrong" in the health care system's protocols. As RT reports, Spanish health officials have 4 patients interned including infected initial nurse, her husband, and a 2nd nurse (male). Furthermore, 22 more possible Ebola cases are under surveillance having had direct contact with the infected nurse during her vacation after being infected (officials have said they 'don't know' how she became infected with the deadly virus). Images within the hospital show "irregularities" and make-shift isolation units and an insider account said "I do not want to create social alarm, but explain what is still a reality everyday for a few months of nursing staff at the ICU.". One researcher noted "air traffic is the driver.," and added ominously, "it's just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky."
Relative to stock market indices, broad commodity indices are now at their lowest levels since the late-1990s dot com boom. Key commodity price ratios, such as those between precious and industrial metals, are already at levels associated with financial crises such as that of 2008. In other words, there is already ‘blood on the commodity streets’, presenting investors and commodity traders with potentially attractive opportunities.
- Liberian Rubber Farm Becomes Sanctuary Against Ebola (WSJ)
- The World’s Most Powerful Central Banker: Janet Who? (BBG)
- Islamic State moves into south west of Syrian Kurdish town (Reuters)
- Waldorf to Be Biggest Chinese Property Purchase in U.S. (BBG)
- Spain Seeks People in Contact With Ebola-Infected Nurse (BBG)
- Hong Kong protests at crossroads as traffic, frustration pile up (Reuters)
- Immigration: Grim Caseload at the Border (WSJ)
- China Cuts Thousands of ‘Phantom’ Workers From State Payroll (BBG)
- U.S., U.K. Regulators Push to Settle Deutsche Bank Libor Case This Year (WSJ)
- Wall Street Moles Go to NY’s Top Cop, Spurning SEC Cash (BBG)
- Pimco's outflow headaches only just beginning (Reuters)
- Japan Lawmakers Flag Need for Exit Strategy as Yen Falls (BBG)
Having lost billions of dollars for quarter after quarter, The US Postal Service has a cunning plan to cut costs - end door-to-door postal delivery. More than 30 million American homes get door-to-door delivery and another 50 million get their mail dropped at their curbside mailboxes, but as Reuters reports, with the 'entity' buckling under massive financial losses, it sees savings in centralized mail delivery. This is good news for the customer though - apparently - as Postal Service spokeswoman Sue Brennan explains "converting delivery away from door delivery to either curb line or centralized delivery would enable the Postal Service to provide service to more customers in less time."
Venezuela's economic crisis has led to some shocking and surreal price distortions that hit people's buying power dramatically. While the government of President Nicolas Maduro calls the country's minimum wage of Bs. 4,252 the highest in the region when converted to $675 using the official exchange rate, the galloping black market for currency considers it as just $42.50 when converted at the street rate of Bs. 100 per US dollar, the rate which many importers and retail outlets must use to acquire hard currency. From Coke to crayons and carrots and from Tires to TVs, Venezuelan prices offer a glimpse of a modern-day hyperinflation.
The move lower in September was technically driven as there was no negative headline data, obvious reasons for price falls or indeed evidence of physical gold selling. Most of the selling was on the COMEX and gold remained firm in Asian trading throughout the month. Bullion buyers should buy the dip
The US Dollar has risen for 12 straight weeks - gaining over 8% against major worlde currencies since June - and while talking heads proclaim the cleanest-dirty-shirt belief in "king dollar," as Reuters notes, it could pose a triple threat to US companies' earnings: driving up the costs of doing business overseas, suppressing the value of non-US sales and, perhaps most worryingly, signaling weak international demand. While the historical relationship between the dollar and the S&P 500 has been inconsistent (though some sectors are highly correlated), Barclays fears translation effects could reduce revenues and cause estimates for Q3 to be missed (even as they are marked down dramatically). Crucially, Barclays warns dollar strength is important because it is a symptom of decelerating international economic growth and they reiterate their unchanged 1975 year-end target for the S&P.
- Ebola Patient Fights for Life as Contacts are Monitored (BBG)
- GPIF Unlikely To Announce New Portfolio Until November: Delay Could Rattle Investors Hoping Fund Will Invest More in Stocks (WSJ)
- High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate (Reuters)
- Neves to Face Rousseff in Brazil in Surprise Comeback (BBG)
- Hong Kong democracy protests fade, face test of stamina (Reuters); A Hong Kong Protest Run on Fumes and Instant Noodles (WSJ)
- Putin Clans Said Gridlocked Over Arrest as Sanctions Bite (BBG)
- Surging dollar may be triple whammy for U.S. earnings (Reuters)
- Lloyds Said to Cut Thousands of Jobs as CEO Cuts Costs (BBG)
For the US, it’s now shooting fish in a barrel – but just for now. The three-pronged plan the Fed has started to execute is plain for everyone to see... And it will have the rest of the world begging for mercy.
We Need to Stop PRETENDING We're Prepared ... and Actually GET Prepared
Putin Rules Out Capital Controls As Ruble Hits Record Lows, "Curbs Risk" By Shifting To Non-Dollar SettlementsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/03/2014 18:05 -0400
Despite ongoing outflows, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed earlier statements by the Central Bank ruling out any measures to stop the flow of money from his nation (following rumors that they were weighing capital controls sent the Ruble to fresh record lows against the USD). The central bank continues to make "small interventions" but the Ruble has pushed to new record lows this morning nevertheless, as Bloomberg reports, restating "the first principle is the lack of limits on capital movements." In order to "curb risks" from ongoing outflows, Putin said on Thursday that Russia wants to shift to national currencies in trade deals with China and other countries, implying a shift away from the U.S. dollar. That appears to be strengthened further this morning as Putin signs law ratifying a Eurasian economic union.
"October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” - Mark Twain
Dollar Gold Falls To $1,190/oz After Jobs Number; Euro, Pound Gold Flat - YTD +3.4% IN GBP, +9% In EURSubmitted by GoldCore on 10/03/2014 09:11 -0400
Speculators continue to sell paper and electronic gold while prudent buyers in China, India and elsewhere continue to accumulate physical bullion.
This dichotomy can only last for so long before the powerful forces of actual physical demand in the small physical gold market lead to higher prices.